“All that matters tomorrow – and we might not know the answer until later in the week – is which campaign advanced in delegates and which campaign did not, and by how much. That Clinton spokesman Wolfson is saying here that the Texas Caucuses don’t matter is your clearest indication that he thinks they’re going to get shellacked at ‘em. He’s already spinning them into ‘doesn’t-matterland’ before they’re even held. That’s because it is precisely the caucus results that will advance Obama to a greater lead among pledged delegates nationwide than he has today.” As the election season builds to a fever pitch in Ohio and Texas, Clinton sends out more attack ads, and the Clinton campaign begins trying to move the goalposts all over again to stay in the race after tomorrow night, Rural Votes‘ Al Giordano puts things in perspective.
In the meantime, the polls — minus Zogby, who had Obama up 13 in California, and is thus someone I’m not putting much stock in at the moment — seem to suggest Clinton is pulling away in Ohio (although not by enough to really make a dent in the delegate situation.) Texas polls are more favorable to Obama, although at least one has Clinton pulling ahead there too. But, to be clear, despite these leads (which also don’t reflect the respective ground games), neither state shows anything like the margins Clinton needs to stay mathematically viable. Her campaign may continue wheezing and sputtering for several weeks yet, but — if these numbers hold up, even with Clinton wins — the race for all intent and purposes ends tomorrow…and not a moment too soon.
I’m dreading the inevitable Clinton “we managed to narrowly avert blowing 20 point leads in Ohio and Texas! This is a great victory!” spin, followed by the totally pointless 6 week slog to Pennsylvania. It’ll be over, but there will still be that sliver of uncertainty and nervousness over whether they’re really willing to try to torpedo the party to deal with, and it’ll still be impossible to read political blogs without wanting to throw things. Ugh. I guess on the bright side, we’ll get to build major ground game infrastructure and goodwill in a few more states with primary money, Hillary will get a few more of McCain’s potential lines of attack out of the way, the DLC wing will continue to embarrass themselves and make themselves more irrelevant, and Dems will continue to dominate the news cycle awhile longer. I’m probably going to quit paying much attention to the race if it does continue though, because I value my mental health.
I hear ya, Jdunn. I’m more than ready for it to be over at this point as well, just to lose that vaguely sickly feeling I get when reading the news these days. Camp Clinton’s incessant promoting of alternate realities just drives me bonkers at this point. And don’t even get me started about the whining about the media.
The good news is, if these numbers hold, I really don’t see the race going seven more weeks to Pennsylvania. The super-supers may well shut it down for the good of the party, particularly since the Clinton campaign has become so Giulianiesque in its fearmongering. Bill Richardson has already telegraphed he’s not happy about the red phone shenanigans. I expect there’s more where he came from.
The super-supers may well shut it down for the good of the party
This is my hope. I think if Obama gets a popular vote win in 1 out of the 2 big states that is a lot more likely. Fingers crossed he holds on in Texas, though he’s going to win it no matter what by the measure that actually matters, delegates. I’d say the night as a whole is a wash or a slight Obama win, delegates-wise, and then he’ll add another +10 or so in MS and WY. All he has to do now is run out the clock anyway. But if she wins the popular in both big states, she’ll have a media narrative to carry on with, and may be able to hold off the exodus awhile longer.
The math is just not there though, and if undecided superdelegates aren’t in her camp now after a year plus of relentless lobbying/bribing, I don’t see how they have any hope of getting them at the convention in the face of the numbers, and well, reality.
“‘Tis but a scratch! Come on, then.” -Hillary Clinton
When will you learn to stop being so optimistic?