“‘The Republicans had a very successful convention [sic] and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference,’ says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. ‘He’s in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point.’” As I noted over the weekend, you just can’t stop the post-convention bounce…Sad to say, some folks just like buyin’ whatever’s being sold, I guess. In any case, today’s Gallup polling has either McCain/Palin up 10 (USA Today/Gallup) (up 4 with registered voters) or up 3 (Daily Tracker). And, though this could be taken as good news if he maintains his recent record, Zogby also has McCain/Palin up 4.
Yikes. Still, I really wouldn’t worry about a little post-RNC turbulence just yet. Even before you factor in the huge problems with assessing “likely voters” this cycle, throw in the pollsters’ overreliance on landlines (and subsequent undercounting of Obama support), and look at the very favorable state-by-state breakdowns for us, these post-convention bumps are fickle creatures. Ask Presidents Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. “[I]n an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election’s outcome only about half the time. ‘You could flip a coin and be about as predictive,’ he says. ‘It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade.’“
So, don’t fret. We’ll sail through these choppy waters yet, folks. Update: Put another way… (Via MLR.)
Update 2: And, just like that, it’s gone.
Thank you for the reassurance, Kevin. Fretting is such a natural state of mind these days.
It’s still not fair, as I feel like our convention was objectively so much bigger and better in every way. I feel like when you average out the two bounces, we should have come out ahead. And mostly, I just want things, just for once, to be easy and have a degree of certainty. But politics ain’t about fair, or easy, and they certainly abhor certainty. I ought to have learned that if nothing else in the past 10 years. Time to put our heads down and slog and fight like hell for 8 weeks, and hopefully when the dust clears we’ll be vindicated.
Ditto what J. Dunn said. I’m still nervous. I finally convinced my redneck relatives to vote for Obama, but now I think they’re going to switch back to McCain because of Palin! They LOVE her. My family votes with their guns, not with their brains.
Megg needs to ask her proud, arms-bearing relatives why the _Republicans_ and the Bush administration aren’t doing _more_ to protect our Second Amendment rights!!! Because there are places, right now, today, in our great republic, where the evil federal government is preventing loyal, patriotic Americans from keeping and bearing any sort of arms (including bows!) _IN_THEIR_OWN_HOMES_!!! They must register all weapons with the police and keep them there at the police station, and if they are found with a weapon in their home, they can be arrested and jailed! And the US government runs these godforsaken, communist-style gulags all over the globe.
They’re called military bases.
People need to get a freakin’ grip… even if he was the crazy, anti-gun-nut the NRA-ILA makes him out to be, there is no way he could ever threaten the average red-neck’s right to blow shit up. Too many congressional _democrats_ rely on gun-nut and moderate votes for this to happen.
I don’t need to ask them. I hear them bitch about that ALL THE TIME. They’re not happy with Bush or the Republicans right now. How do you think I got them to consider voting for Obama in the first place? (That’s why they’ve been stockpiling weapons to prepare for some revolution they think will happen in the future. Crazy!!) I’m worried they’ll change their vote back to McCain because they relate to Palin more than Obama. It’s a personality thing.
Hi Kevin! It’s been a while.
I really hope you’re right about this. The thought of Palin that close to the Presidency scares me.
This is the same country that voted Dubyah to a second term…a boatload of morons…
I am begining to seriously doubt
Obama has a real chance of winning with a nation of idiot voters
In moviespeak
Idiocracy is NOW!!!
McCain/Palin = Cheney/Bush