Bad news for Kamp Kerry…Thanks in no small part to his fiery antiestablishment rhetoric, which always seems to play well in the Granite State, Howard Dean is now up a commanding 23 points in New Hampshire (13 in this poll), and it’s hard to see how Kerry can gain any traction if he can’t hold his backyard. Perhaps Wesley Clark’s Manchester offensive will shake things up a bit, but you have to think that Dean would have to do something really idiotic to lose NH at this point. Meanwhile, as the increasingly combative candidates prep for their fifth debate tonight, several campaigns complain the nine-person debates are a recipe for treading water.
Category: Howard Dean
The Value of Service.
While General Clark comes out for national service, fellow candidates Dean and Kerry bicker over Vietnam. Hmm…while I’m very sympathetic to the idea that a war record should not be a prerequisite for political office, Kerry’s military service is obviously one of his main selling points, particularly when placed in contrast to Dubya’s AWOL year. So I’d say it’s a dumb call for Dean to begrudge Kerry’s mentioning of Vietnam, and especially given Dean’s own tour in Aspen during that time. For the Deanies, I’d think the less said about ‘Nam, the better.
General Discontent.
So the Dems debated again last week in Arizona (during Sox-Yankees Game 2, of all times…I caught the first half, tuned out when the goofy “Real Americans Just Like You” portion started, and refrained from playing the drinking game), and this time around General Clark was the new focus of attack. I must say, I was very unimpressed with Clark’s handling of the Iraq question — When asked about his equivocations on the subject, he equivocated. Unless the General raises his game and soon, I’d think that the smart establishment money might look anew at Kerry, Edwards, or someone else. Speaking of which, also in Dem election news, Kerry and Gephardt conspire to kick Dean off the island, as manifested by Kerry’s new Gephardt-like Mediscare gambit. I definitely still could vote for Kerry, but allying with Gephardt in any capacity and playing the Mediscare game are two strikes in my book.
The Real McCain.
John McCain handicaps the Democratic field, and balks at comparisons to Dean. I dunno…a real “straight-talker” would call out Dubya a little more, I should think, particularly given the President’s recent lapses in foreign affairs. Elsewhere, Wesley Clark gets in hot water for giving paid campaign speeches. What with yesterday’s resignation, this is another indicator of a troubling lack of oversight over in Camp Clark. While he’s still getting good press for the moment, I’d think that eventually these types of avoidable gaffes are going to add up to trouble for the General.
Howard’s Army.
The Times checks in with “Generation Dean.” Hey, I’ll take it over the “Hipublicans.” Also in Dem election news, General Clark loses his campaign manager in a power struggle between the DC ops and the Internet team. A bit early for Clark’s campaign to experience this type of shake-up, isn’t it?
War Chests.
In other campaign news, Bush outtpaced Dean — the leading Democratic fund-raiser — by a factor of three in the past three months, and has now raised $82.5 million for his 2004 campaign. No money for jobs, no money for rebuilding Iraq…but plenty to go around for Dubya’s re-election. Go figure.
Dean Deserters?
Is General Clark eating into Dean’s numbers? Perhaps, but I don’t think it matters all that much at the moment. As stories on the frosty relationship between the two suggest, Dean is already a top-tier candidate – it’s the gaggle of media-hungry candidates below him that should most worry about the Clark buzz and ensuing press vacuum. For another, Dean’s the only Dem candidate right now other than Clark who seems to attract true believers (as any number of weblogs will attest.) Sure, the Doctor may be losing waverers – but I’d bet he has the largest number of core supporters going, and they seem more committed and battle-tested than Clark’s new volunteer army.
Chinks in the Armor.
In the newest set of 2004 preview polls, Dubya is tied with a number of Dems, including Clark, Kerry, and Lieberman (Dean and Gephardt run slightly behind.) For his part, Bush say he’s not listening to the primary furor, yet that’s not stopping the White House from sweating today’s UN address, or GOP flaks from decrying the Dems’ “political hate speech.” Hate speech? Heh. Perhaps Gillespie should be referred to a little matter called impeachment…it was in the papers a few years back. Also in Election 2004 news, be sure to check out Value Judgment, a site I found in the referrer logs a few weeks ago. It’s very pro-Dean, but nevertheless does a superlative job in keeping up with Dem primary news.
The Forgotten Soldier.
While the General makes his first (very) tentative steps on the campaign trail, John Kerry looks to looks to regain the momentum in what fast threatens to be a Dean v. Clark race.
First and Ten.
It’s unofficial – Wesley Clark will become the tenth contender in the crowded Democratic field and – barring an early screw-up of monumental proportions – has to be considered one of the frontrunners immediately. It’ll be interesting to see how he shakes up the race – I expect he’ll take some of Dean’s mavericks, Kerry’s military men, and, perhaps most importantly, Edwards’ Southerners. (Perhaps sensing the threat, Gore alumnus Chris Lehane left the Kerry team.) In other election news, Edwards officially announces his candidacy (Poor luck that Clark’ll steal his media today), while the NY Times‘s David Brooks examines why GOP ops love Dean. (I, for one, don’t really buy it – Dean has to be more worrisome than a milquetoast like Graham.)