Debated, Belated.

So, for the first time and by a (statistically-insignifcant) margin of 32% to 30%, Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton in the polls. And, in more good news for the Obama camp, this poll was mostly taken before last week’s first Democratic debate, so there might still be a bump to come. For, at least to my admittedly jaundiced eye, Obama came across as far and away the most impressive candidate last Thursday. I feared he might seem callow and inexperienced going in, but Obama came across to me as thoughtful, nuanced, and, when needed, decisive…in short, he seemed suitably presidential, while still exuding that youthful flair and enthusiasm that makes him such a potentially exciting vehicle for generational political change in 2008. (And, boding well for the general election, Obama also seemed well-practiced in the art of debate jujitsu, deftly tossing aside at least two clear trip-up questions — on shady campaign contributors and Israel — with remarkable ease.) As for Clinton, well, it’s not entirely her fault, I guess — unlike Obama, she’s been with us for a decade and a half now, and is nothing if not a known quantity. But she came across to me as the same cautious, methodical, triangulating centrist she’s shown herself to be over the past fifteen years in public life, and it’s getting harder to imagine myself being anything but underwhelmed by her as a candidate in the general election.

John Edwards still seems the best of the rest, but he didn’t do much on Thursday to stand out, I thought. (I expect he’ll do better as the candidates decrease in number.) I found Richardson surprisingly uninspiring, given all the good things often said of him. (The Governor really needs to work on his presentation — he kept scowling and frowning his way through every question like Old Man Potter.) Biden came across as better than usual but still interminably Bidenish — that cute one-word answer couldn’t mask his Senate-honed penchant for blathering and monologuing. Distinguished and discerning, Dodd actually seems like he’d make a fine president, if money and star power weren’t so often the defining factors in this business. (As it is, it doesn’t look good.) Speaking of which, the 2008 Kucinich seemed Kucinich-lite next to the throwback rantings of Mike Gravel, who was intermittently amusing with the Admiral Stockdale-isms at first, but who grew wearisome, in my opinion, by the end. (I’m all for the idea that the military-industrial complex has ballooned into a monstrosity, but saying things like America in fact has no enemies sounds a bit naive after 9/11, and is the type of thing the GOP agitprop hounds tend to have a field day with.)

Blue Skies Ahead? | The Other Side of the Aisle.

“‘A Democratic candidate could go out there and muck it up and raise questions about his or her competence or judgment,’ says Andy Kohut, director of the non-partisan Pew Research Center. ‘But the landscape really is tilted in a Democratic direction.’” In USA Today, Susan Page lists five reasons why 2008 is looking Democratic. But, don’t tell these guys: The Republicans go at it tonight at the Reagan Presidential Library, 8pm, MSNBC.

Aboard the Clinton Dreadnought.

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was designed and built to be a dreadnought, an all-big-gun battleship that would rule the waves without being dented, slowed or thrown off course. But it has been caught off guard by a submarine named Barack Obama, running silent, running deep — until he surfaced with a spectacular showing in the first round of fund-raising numbers.” TIME’s political bureau looks in on the Clinton campaign’s likely response to the threat of Obama (which reminds me, the first Democratic debate is tonight, 7pm EST, on MSNBC. [Previews: WP | Newsweek | The State | The Times and Democrat]) “Hillary Clinton is also banking on the grueling schedule of debates, which is ‘where she will shine,’ says a strategist. ‘This will be her strongest point. She knows this stuff inside out.’ But her team says she is not yet ready to begin challenging Obama directly on his lack of specificity. That’s because going on the attack could further boost her negatives and create an opening for Edwards, who has offered far more detailed plans than she has on issues like health care. ‘They are worried about both Obama and Edwards,’ says an outside adviser. ‘They think if Obama flames out, Edwards rises.‘”

Palmetto Parley | Obama Equalizes.

TiVo time for the political junkies among us: Campaign 2008 begins in earnest this Thursday evening, when the first Democratic debate will take place in Orangeburg, SC. “Thursday’s debate will air live on MSNBC from 7 to 8:30 p.m. and stream live on MSNBC.com.

And, in related news, a new Rasmussen poll has Obama now tied with Hillary at 32%, with Edwards coming in at third (17%). “Thirty-three percent (33%) of Likely Voters say they’d definitely vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D). That’s the highest total received by any of ten leading Presidential hopefuls included in the poll…Opinions are most solid concerning the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, New York Senator Hillary Clinton — 78% have an opinion of whether they’ll definitely vote for or against her regardless of who she runs against. That includes 30% who would definitely vote for the former First Lady and 48% who would definitely vote against her.

The Audacity of Tolerance.

“Skeptics derided JFK, as they now do Obama, as callow and ill-versed in substantive issues. And yet Obama, similar to JFK, manages to inspire people with sex appeal, cerebral cool, and a message of generational change.” Rutgers University professor David Greenberg examines the similarities between Senator Obama and President Kennedy, and argues that Obama’s team might just be taking a page from the JFK campaign’s Catholicism playbook with regard to race in 2008. “Having passed a threshold among most white voters, his race can implicitly encourage them to feel that a vote for Obama is a vote for tolerance, for a future free of the constricting prejudices of the past, and for a sense of hope that Jack Kennedy once evoked.

The Other Shoe Drops.

“The government may use its voice and its regulatory authority to show its profound respect for the life within the woman.” In keeping with a tendency to move right incrementally, without necessarily overturning any laws (one that may also pose trouble for the McCain-Feingold act in coming weeks), the Roberts Court upholds a ban against partial-birth abortion 5-4, with Justice Anthony Kennedy the swing vote. (He was joined, of course, by Justices Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, and Alito.) Kennedy’s reasoning? According to Slate‘s always-perceptive Dahlia Lithwick, it was fear of the Inconstant Woman: “Today’s holding is a strange reworking of Taming of the Shrew, with Kennedy playing an all-knowing Baptista to a nation of fickle Biancas.” For her part, Senator Barbara Boxer sadly summed it up as such: “‘It confirms that elections have consequences,’…alluding to Bush’s re-election and the seven GOP Senate wins in 2004 which set the stage for the appointment of Roberts and Alito.

With that in mind, all the major candidates for 2008 obviously weighed in on the decision in Gonzales v. Carhart, although everyone pretty much followed to party script, even the ostensibly pro-choice Giuliani. [Clinton | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Obama | Richardson | Romney] “Wednesday’s ruling raises the stakes for the 2008 presidential election, which is almost certain to pit an abortion-rights Democrat against an anti-abortion Republican.” Let’s not make the same mistake again, y’all.

I’m in ur base stealin ur D0n0rs.

Some more fallout (and, in my opinion, auspicious signs) from the first money primary held recently: Hillary Clinton may have more in the bank, but Barack Obama raised more money, has more cap room to spare, so to speak, and has been peeling off some top Clinton donors to back his own efforts. “A list of Mr. Obama’s top fund-raisers released Sunday showed the extent to which the Democratic Party establishment, once presumed to back Mrs. Clinton, has become more fragmented and drifted into her rival’s camp, lending the early stages of the Democratic primary campaign the feeling of a family feud.Update: In related news, a new poll shows the race tightening on both sides. Clinton’s up only eight on Obama, Giuliani has six on McCain (pending GOP reinforcements such as Fred Thompson.)

Edwards Stays On.

“The campaign goes on…The campaign goes on strongly.” Despite a deeply unfortunate recurrence of his wife’s cancer, John Edwards announces he’s staying in the presidential hunt. A welcome decision: At the moment, I’d say it’s still a race between he and Barack Obama for my primary vote.

I’m Just a Bill.

I am taking this step because we have to repair the damage that’s been done to our country over the last six years. Our reputation in the world is diminished, our economy has languished, and civility and common decency in government has perished.” Joining the increasingly swollen ranks of Dem contenders — I don’t think anyone in my apartment building is running…yet — New Mexico governor Bill Richardson announces his own presidential run. Can’t say I’m feeling it yet, but perhaps he’ll surprise me.

President Clinton II…

Only a new president can renew the promise of America — the idea that if you work hard you can count on the health care, education, and retirement security that you need to raise your family. These are the basic values of America that are under attack from this administration every day. And only a new president can regain America’s position as a respected leader in the world.” Yes, folks, the Clintons are back. As of this morning, Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton has officially entered the 2008 presidential race. Senator Clinton is smart, committed, and formidable, and I think she’d make both a worthy standardbearer and a worthy president. (And her husband would likely make the best First Mate since Eleanor.) But, in all honesty, I also think she’s the type of candidate that everyone in the country already has an opinion about, and I fear we’re rolling the dice with her if the GOP gets behind McCain, as they’re likely to. (Also, while having our first Madam President will be both a history-making and long overdue moment in our politics, I’m not sure I like the historical precedent of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton — It sounds so Gilded Age to me.) Finallly, while she’s been a strong and dedicated advocate of many liberal issues in the past (health care reform, social security) in the past, her record on much-needed progressive reforms (campaign finance, voting reform) is less enthusing, and — like her husband — she’s clearly shown a tendency to don the conservative wardrobe (Iraq’s early days, attacking Hollywood) when it suits her purpose. I’m not averse to a Clinton candidacy by any means (as I was and continue to be with Al Gore), but — unless things change considerably in the year to come — there are other candidates I find more intriguing. Namely…