Re-Shuffle.

A Dubya administration shake-up begins with White House Chief of Staff Andy Card getting the boot, to be replaced by former OMB director Joshua Bolten. But, as Dan Froomkin notes, “Card’s departure in no way addresses the two even more fundamental areas where Bush is vulnerable: His decisions and his credibility.

Running Scared.

“In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich…told TIME that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: ‘Had enough?’

TIME previews the increasingly nightmarish electoral landscape for the GOP, and the “signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg… ‘The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable.’ In addition, “administration officials say they fear that losing even one house of Congress would mean subpoenas and investigations–a taste of the medicine House Republicans gave Bill Clinton.

How ’bout an exploding cigar?

“The memo also shows that the president and the prime minister acknowledged that no unconventional weapons had been found inside Iraq. Faced with the possibility of not finding any before the planned invasion, Mr. Bush talked about several ways to provoke a confrontation, including a proposal to paint a United States surveillance plane in the colors of the United Nations in hopes of drawing fire, or assassinating Mr. Hussein.” The NYT relates the details of a January 2003 pre-war meeting between Bush and Blair, and it’s not pretty. Not surprisingly (and like the July 2002 Downing Street memos, the recollections of Paul O’Neill, and countless other sources), this new material confirms that Dubya and the neocons wanted a war in Iraq, come hell or high water.

McCain-Feingold on the Road.

“‘There seems to be a disconnect between the rhetoric in Washington about what this is all about and what we hear here,’ Feingold said. McCain responded that he did ‘not want to get into a back-and-forth with one of my best friends.’” While visiting Baghdad, Senators McCain and Feingold argue “cordially and pointedly” over Iraq. “Feingold…said he was dismayed not to hear any of the military commanders he met with mention al-Qaeda as a source of the problems in Iraq. The Bush administration and U.S. officials here often point to the radical group as a major source of instability in the country.

Broken Reed.

“[Ralph Reed] has damaged Christian political work by confirming for some the stereotype that evangelicals are easily manipulated and that evangelical leaders use moral issues to line their own pockets.” In related news, former Christian Coalition head and current candidate for Georgia lieutenant governor Ralph Reed also finds it hard to shake the taint of Abramoff, and even finds himself persona non grata among evangelical conservatives such as Melvin Olasky of WORLD magazine.

Albright Eyes.

It is sometimes convenient, for purposes of rhetorical effect, for national leaders to talk of a globe neatly divided into good and bad. It is quite another, however, to base the policies of the world’s most powerful nation upon that fiction.” In a must-read LA Times editorial, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright witheringly dissects Dubya Diplomacy. (Via Medley.)

Yearning to breathe free.

“‘The short-term politics of this are pretty clear. The long-term politics are pretty clear. And they’re both at odds,’ said Mike Buttry, a spokesman for Sen. Chuck Hagel.” With Republican unity already shattered by Dubaigate, the contentious question of immigration reform threatens to divide Dubya and the GOP anew, as 2008 hopefuls Frist and Tancredo attempt to outflank Dubya on the right on the issue of border security, while McCain tries to shore up his standing with the Bushies. “For Republican presidential candidates, immigration offers up a difficult choice: Appeal to conservatives eager to clamp down on illegal immigration who could buoy your position in the primaries, or take a moderate stand to win independents and the growing Latino vote, which could be vital to winning the general election.

The Raptors Bite Back.

“‘We rely on those transactions,’ Mr. Lay said during the September meeting, according to Mr. Glisan. ‘They are imperative for us to hit our numbers and we will continue to do them.‘” Prosecutors begin to wrap up their case in the Enron trial with the testimony of former Enron treasurer Ben Glisan, Jr., who is currently serving a five-year prison term for his part in the fraud. (He created Enron’s “Raptors,” “four fragile financial structures…used to house assets and investments and to hide losses.”) According to the NYT, he “provided some of the strongest testimony against Mr. Lay heard by the jury so far.

I’ll miss you most of all, scarecrow.

Some say that if you’re Muslim you can’t be free.” In a piece that’s drawn some controversy — God forbid our newsmedia call out the President when he’s making stuff up — the AP‘s Jennifer Loven scrutinizes Dubya’s rhetorical reliance on straw man arguments. Many find Loven’s piece convincing.

Massive Spoilers.

“These are just slush funds for conservative interest groups…These organizations would not be in existence if not for the federal dollars coming through.” The Post looks into the Dubya’s administration’s social spending priorities, and finds that during Dubya’s tenure the government has “funneled at least $157 million in grants to organizations run by political and ideological allies.” Says Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Tex.): “I believe ultimately this will be seen as one of the largest patronage programs in American history.