The Knicks Outpaced.

“‘It’s tough to go out this way,’ coach Mike Woodson said. ‘I didn’t make it happen for us and that’s what’s disappointing.'” Well, that’s that then. After the most promising season in a decade, the Knicks go down in six to the Pacers in the second round, not even getting a chance to trade blows with the reigning champion Miami Heat.

Well, we went out earlier than hoped, but I still feel pretty good about this season. For one, even though we had at least two key players — J.R. Smith and Jason Kidd — go ice-cold this series, the Knicks still contended against a big, physical team that may well give the Heat serious problems. (It likely didn’t help that both Melo and JR played hurt.)

For another, I like Mike Woodson as a coach, but his decision-making in this series was…not good. Chris Copeland should have gotten more run — a 3-shooting big man is exactly what was needed to offset the Hibbert factor — and Smith, Kidd, and Amare should all have been benched earlier on. Similarly, I know Steve Novak is a defensive liability, but he should’ve gotten a few of those minutes too. If he gets hot and makes a few threes, it spreads the floor, forces the Pacers to guard the perimeter, and allows Felton, Melo et al to penetrate. It was worth a try, given that JR was throwing up more bricks than the Stonecutters in the first few games.

In any case, Mike Vaccaro’s analogy of the Knicks being an 18 on a blackjack table is a pretty good one. The Knicks are a talented jump-shooting team, and, on the bright side, Iman Shumpert is clearly evolving into a high-impact player. But we need either a consistent second scorer or some sort of inside presence — preferably both — to really contend moving forward. Tyson Chandler is a defensive anchor, but his offense is all tip-ins and Felton alley-oops, and Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, and the recently departed Kurt Thomas are all aging in dog years at this point.

Which brings us back to the Amare question — Can he be the player he once was, while co-existing with Melo? — The spacing never looked right when they were both healthy on the floor the past two years. To be continued, next November.

Back in the Game!

It’s been forty long years and we’re starvin’: So I didn’t do the usual annual NBA playoff picks this year, partly because I don’t have much knowledgeable to say about matchups like Denver v. Golden State and Atlanta v. Indiana, and mainly because, more than even most years, my bracket would be clouded over in fandom and I don’t want to bring the jinx. Suffice to say that I’m greatly enjoying the Knicks’ first year of serious playoff contention in fourteen years — basically the entire life of GitM(!)

Even with 2012-2013’s scoring leader (Carmelo Anthony), the six man of the year (J.R. Smith) and a gaggle of seasoned, savvy veterans (Chandler, Kidd, K-Mart, Camby) on our squad, the 2013 NBA Championship clearly remains Miami’s to lose. Still, here’s hoping we at least get a chance to take on the reigning Heat in the Eastern Conference finals. So far, so good — The Knicks go into Boston, a team that swept us two years ago (albeit with Rondo), having defended our home floor for the first time since 2000. Say go New York go New York go…

Welcome to the Amar’e Era.

“I’ve been waiting for this for a long time,’ Stoudemire said of opening night. ‘The time is finally here. I can’t wait.‘” Start spreading the news: The new-look Knickerbockers kick off the season today across the border against the Bosh-less Toronto Raptors. “‘The fans are ready just as well as we are,’ Stoudemire said.“

True, that. Still, even after the Amar’e signing, the Knicks are looking like a seventh or eighth seed at best at the moment. And with potential X-factor Anthony Randolph starting the season hobbled, Gallinari and Felton playing inconsistently in the pre-season, and Stanford second-rounder Landry Fields starting at SG, I fear it’s not going to take too many games before we’re all just waiting for Melo all season.

(But, hey, at least right now we have a better record than the hated 0-1 Heat, who looked terrible last night against the Celtics. Booyah.)

Cleveland has no King. Cleveland needs no King.

“In this fall — this is very tough — in this fall I am taking my talents to South Beach and play with the Miami Heat. I feel like this is going to give me the best opportunity to win and to win for multiple years.” With that, Lebron James — a King of Cleveland no longer — publicly announced he’s signing with the Heat.

Oof, what a sorry spectacle. Over the years, I’ve been on the receiving end of break-ups that were probably worse-handled than what LeBron did to Cleveland — on national TV! — last week…but only just barely. And, while I know I was rooting for a LeBron–to–NYK trade in the past, it’s hard not to feel at this point that the Knickerbockers may have dodged a basketball bullet here. Between the 2010 playoffs and the sorta-sad deference to D-Wade, it seems like James isn’t really wired to carry a team to a championship, and all talk of him as the next Michael Jordan now sounds ridiculous — That honor is now pretty clearly bestowed on, much as I hate to say it, Kobe Bryant.

The upshot, as a Knicks fan: If not necessarily game-changers on their own, Amar’e Stoudamire, Anthony Randolph, and Raymond Felton are promising additions to our squad, more promising than anything we’ve seen since the dog days of Isiah (Never again!) And count me in on the plan for an Amar’e-Melo-CP3 triumvirate in Gotham by next year or 2012. Hey, at least Melo has actually won something…

Fan-Tastic 2008.

Yep, it’s playoff time again. As a lowly Knicks fan, I’m not sure I’m qualified to write up my picks this year. The only games I saw this season involved New York, and thus I haven’t watched any of these squads play against a real defense. And I haven’t seen the Chris Paul Hornets or the Pau Gasol Lakers play at all this season, among other teams. Still, tradition is tradition, so…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007]

The East

Boston Celtics (1) v. Atlanta Hawks (8): I can’t say I’m all that pro-Celtics — In fact, I generally find Boston homers, with a few exceptions, to be some of the more aggravating fans around. Still, I’ve always had soft spots for KG, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell. (I could take or leave Paul Pierce: I find him way too passive, tending to disappear in big games for quarters at a time.) And these Celtics are (sorry, Spree) not only the best team Garnett’s ever played on, but the best team the East has seen in awhile. They’re going to be tested at some point before the Finals, but it won’t be lowly Atlanta that push them. KG’s usual intensity alone will ensure no early slip-up, and Boston should scatter Bibby and the Hawks fairly readily. Boston in four.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Philadelphia 76ers (7): A wily and versatile squad stocked with savvy veterans and playoff experience, Detroit is easily the scariest team standing between Boston and the Finals. But, they do have a tendency to coast…one hopes they’ve learned something from their playoff flameout against LeBron last year. Either way, I don’t see Andre Iguodala and the Sixers mounting much of a threat to Motown. Detroit in Five.

Orlando Magic (3) v. Toronto Raptors (6): I haven’t looked at the schedule yet, but I get the sense this and the Utah series are going to be the ones relegated to Wednesday nights on NBA TV. Regardless, Dwight Howard v. Chris Bosh should be fun to watch…and I feel pretty confident Howard has the edge. Orlando in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): These two teams seem to meet every year in the playoffs of late. Unlike 2007, however, the Wizards are healthy, with both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler ready to play. That being said, and while the Cavs are still basically a bunch of journeyman scrubs, Cleveland has King James, who singlehandedly powered a similarly lousy Cavs squad to the Finals last year. This’ll be a hard-fought contest, but my money’s on LeBron (particularly given that Cleveland has beaten DC twice in a row — he’s in their heads.) Cleveland in Seven.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (8): As an inveterate and well-established Kobe hater of long standing, I’m still irritated with Memphis bailing out LA with that grotesquely lopsided Gasol trade. So, I’d like nothing more to see AI and ‘Melo rise to the occasion and knock the Lakers out early. But, against a team as good as Los Angeles and a player with as much killer instinct as Kobe, I can’t in good conscience back a George Karl-coached team. Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Dallas Mavericks (7): As I said above, I have yet to see the Hornets in action, and there’s not a lot of playoff experience on this team. And, now that Dallas has Jason Kidd, it’s hard to see the Mavs folding as badly as they did last season against Golden State. But I still don’t have a lot of confidence in Dallas, and Coach Avery Johnson seems like he’s a net negative when the pressure’s on — at key moments, he just seems to wind up guys like Nowitzki further, instead of calming them down and getting them to play better. And, if Paul is as good and quick as everyone says he is, I’m not sure how Kidd is going to guard him. So, New Orleans in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Phoenix Suns (6): This should be fun. One would think I would know not to bet against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. Still, every dynasty ends at some time or another, and, particularly given their record over the back half of the season, I just have a feeling the Spurs have entered into that long twilight. (Plus, Big Shot Rob ain’t getting any younger, and after last year’s incident, the Suns have karma on their side.) Players like Barbosa will have to step up, and Shaq will have to find some of that playoff juvenation to help keep Duncan locked down and allow Stoudamire to thrive. But, I’m thinking Nash & co. weather a few big games from Ginobli/Parker and knock out the reigning champs in the first round. Phoenix in Seven.

Utah Jazz (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): I know Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are apparently the real deal, but I still don’t have much faith in this incarnation of the Jazz. That being said, despite their 21-game winning streak without Yao, T-Mac has had, uh, some trouble winning a playoff series. Until he finally breaks that curse, I guess I have to go with those Salt Lake City bluesmen. Utah in Six.

The Rest

Boston Celtics (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): King James is amazing, but his retinue (Ben Wallace, Wally World) is still pretty pedestrian. And I just don’t see the Celts getting caught as flat-footed by a monster LeBron game as Detroit did last year. Plus, Boston has too many options, even if they don’t always know which one to go to in the fourth. But don’t fret, LeBron, you’ll be a Knickerbocker soon enough. Boston in Five.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Orlando Magic (3): Unless Detroit has another one of their “senior moments,” they should dispatch Orlando rather quickly. And they’ll need to, in order to be at all competitive in the Eastern Conference Finals. Detroit in Five.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Utah Jazz (4): Having to choose between Kobe and the Jazz is like choosing between the flu and measles. But I’ll go with LA, partly due to home court, partly due to Kobe no doubt getting a Jordan-like shield from the refs (who, I’m sure, have been apprised of the value of a Lakers-Celtics throwback final to the NBA.) Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Phoenix Suns (6): Again, N’Orleans is an X-factor to me. But, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the more prior experience helps. (As does D, of course, but it’s not like the Suns are a defensive powerhouse.) So I’ll go with Nash, Shaq et al. Phoenix in Five.

EAST FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Detroit Pistons (2): Now, this’ll be a great series. We have yet to see how Boston would handle having their backs to the wall, and given that [a] KG can sometimes get ratcheted up too tight and [b] Coach Doc Rivers is more than a little suspect in the strategy department, an early Detroit win could really scramble this one. But, even if he’s older than the hills, Sam Cassell is a legitimate fourth-quarter assassin, and I’m betting he (like Robert Horry and Derek Fisher in years before him) puts Boston over the top in a key game here. Boston in Six.

WEST FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): At long last, the main event: Shaq vs. Kobe for a post-Laker ring. Shaq’s only a (very big) cog in the Suns engine now, of course, but I’m sure he’ll find it sweet to have Phoenix knock off LA regardless. Phoenix in Seven.

FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): It won’t be the Celtics-Lakers series Commissioner Stern spends his nights praying for, but this should be a solid Finals regardless. The main difference between these two exciting squads is that Boston can totally lock teams down on defense. Defense wins championships, and it will here as well. So, congrats, Celts fans — And don’t forget to thank Kevin McHale for letting Minnesota take a gimongous dive! 2007-08 has been a banner year for Boston…well, except for that whole matter of 18-1…

Fan-Tastic 2007.

Our world has revolved around the sun once more, and just like that, it’s time for the NBA playoffs again. As befitting tradition, here’s the pretty much always patently useless GitM breakdown:

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006]

The East

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Orlando Magic (8): I had Detroit winning it all last year, and I still think when they firing on all cylinders the Pistons are far and away the best team in the East, particularly now with CWebb joining Antonio McDyess as another quality back-up in the paint. They may not have stars along the lines of Shaq and D-Wade (which, sadly, means less love at the free-throw line), but they’ve got post-up people, they’ve got outside range, they’ve got tenacious defenders and they’ve got savvy veterans. Orlando, meanwhile, has Dwight Howard (young and untested), Grant Hill (aka, sadly, Mr. Glass), and Darko Milicic (who couldn’t even break into the Piston’s rotation back in the day.) Not much of a match-up here. Detroit has had a tendency to coast until fourth quarters this year, so I’ll give Orlando a game. But that’s it. Pistons in Five.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v. Washington Wizards (7): Alas, the Wizards — a fun team to watch with a talented and likable superstar in Gilbert Arenas — are Dead Men Walking. With both Arenas and Caron Butler injured at the moment, Washington just doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Court of King James. As such, this series, which might’ve been a good test to see if LeBron can shake off his regular-season doldrums, will instead be a walk. If the Cavs are too, um, cavalier, DC might take a game. But I seriously doubt it. Cleveland in Four.

Toronto Raptors (3) v. New Jersey Nets (6): Now, this one’s a little tougher. My gut tells me that New Jersey has the veteran experience to win this round against the young, up-and-down, better-ranked Raptors. But, however much I like Jason Kidd, I just can’t bring myself to pick Vince “I phone it in” Carter over Toronto, the team he screwed over back in the day. So here’s hoping Chris Bosh throws a coming-out party. Toronto in Seven

Miami Heat (4) v. Chicago Bulls (5): Until last night, I might’ve picked the Bulls to take this, just because Scott Skiles is a take-no-prisoners-coach and the returning champions have looked suspect this entire season, particularly now that Dwyane Wade has a busted shoulder. If former Piston Ben Wallace could keep an aging Shaq even slightly in check, one would think the young, hungry Bulls — Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich — might light up this series. But then I saw a flat Chicago team lose the second seed in a must-win game last night against New Jersey, and my opinion changed. In short, the Bulls are basically just a jump-shooting team with no real inside game to speak of. Jump-shooting teams can get hot and win a game or two, but they don’t win championships, or even first rounds. (Funny enough, the Bulls could really use Eddy Curry these days, whom they gave to the Knicks for, in essence, several quality draft picks — But Chicago might still get the last laugh if they pick up Greg Oden or Kevin Durant this summer with our pick. Stay tuned.) Miami in Six.

The West

Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Golden State Warriors (8): With all due respect to Sam Cassell, who’s a seriously clutch guy I’ve always rooted for (well, except in the Knicks-Rockets series back in ’94), I’m glad Golden State ended up taking the eight-seed last night over the LA Clippers. With a big, talented backcourt in Baron Davis and Jason Richardson, and with former Mav coach Don Nelson manning the sidelines, the Warriors have a slight chance to make the first round in the West really interesting. Emphasis on slight. From Avery Johnson to Jerry Stackhouse, Dallas is one of my least favorite teams in the league (although, as a digression, I do kinda like Mark Cuban — he’s a good blogger, he’s smart and passionate about the game, and, notwithstanding throwing money into the political process and behind social causes, which I’d like to think I’d do more of, he’s doing what I’d be doing if I were uber-mega-rich.) That being said, Dallas has too many guns, and is too peeved from last year’s loss in the Finals. Dallas in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7): A rematch of last year’s 7-game series (where, it should be recalled, Kobe stopped taking shots in the second half of Game 7 as some strange form of protest.) That is, except this year Phoenix, with Amare Stoudamire and former Knick Kurt Thomas back at full health, is better, and Los Angeles, with Lamar Odom ailing, is worse. My inordinate dislike of Kobe is a matter of record around these parts, so I’ll waste no more time presuming to be impartial here. Suffice to say, Phoenix in Five.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Denver Nuggets (6): What with the ignominious circumstances surrounding his trade to Denver Allan Iverson has had a rotten year. And, I’d like nothing more than to see he, Melo, Nene, Marcus Camby, and K-Mart take the boring San Antonio Spurs to school this year. (Although, give ’em credit, it was interesting to see Tim Duncan’s inveterate whining finally send Joey Crawford over the border to Crazytown — What, you mean NBA refs carry grudges against certain players? Who knew?) But, it’s not going to happen, particularly with coach George Karl — playoff choker par excellence — still at the helm of the Nugs. I’ll be rooting for Denver, but San Antonio in Five

Utah Jazz (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): Riding Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and a recently flailing Andrei Kirilenko, the Utah Jazz have overperformed all year. Struggling with injuries at various times to both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, the Rockets have underperformed. In this series, I expect Houston to even the score. Van Gundy’s a great coach, T-Mac is hungry, Yao is due, Houston in Six.

The Rest

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Miami Heat (4): With Wade hurt and Shaq still dominant but aging in dog years (as all centers ultimately do), I’d be surprised if Miami has the wherewithal to beat the Pistons two years in a row. One hates to bet against the returning champions, but they’ve been too erratic all year, I think, to get past Detroit, who should be looking to rectify for last season. And, without Riley on the bench, Detroit in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v. Toronto Raptors (3): Ideally, Chris Bosh would give LeBron James a run for his money here in the second round, and solidify his burgeoning superstar status for the 2007-08 season. But, even with a slightly suspect supporting cast (Eric Snow?), I expect LeBron will begin to taste the NBA Finals right around now, and show us an upside that’s been AWOL for months. Cleveland in Five.

Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Houston Rockets (5): Dallas has been the best team in the league all year, and Nowitzki is a player who not only can get red-hot, but knows how to get his calls when he doesn’t. I’d love to see Houston take this series, but I gotta say Dallas in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): This will be the first really marquee match-up of the playoffs, and I’d argue the Suns are still rising. Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker will no doubt make it interesting, but Phoenix ultimately puts too many points on the board. Phoenix in Seven.

EAST FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (2): It makes historic sense — LeBron has to get past the Bad Boys of Detroit, just as Jordan did back in 1991, to get to the NBA Finals. It won’t happen this year, though:The Pistons are too deep and too experienced. Detroit in Six.

WEST FINALS: Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): The two teams that gave us arguably the best game of the season will also end up choosing between themselves the 2007 champion. Dallas is probably a safer pick, since they’ve got a better half-court game than the run-and-gun Suns. But, I’m going Phoenix…I like ’em more as a team, and when they’re in the groove they can’t be stopped.

FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): Detroit is a better defensive team, and defense wins championships. But, with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, and Shawn Marion, I’d guess Phoenix has more game-breaking X-factors than do Detroit, and, as noted before, the Pistons have looked sluggish to me this year. So, here’s guessing Nash gets a ring to help quell the naysayers about his two-time MVP status. Phoenix in Seven.

Looks good on paper, but that’s why the play the games. Let’s play ball.

Fan-tastic 2006.

If it’s late April, it must be time for the NBA playoffs. And, while the Knicks’ sheer terribleness made it especially hard for me to evaluate the rest of the league this year (since all the halfway-decent teams generally just ran right over ’em), a tradition is a tradition. [2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005] So, without further ado:

The East

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Milwaukee Bucks (8): Ok, they didn’t crack 70 wins — Still, with four All-Stars on hand (Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince), championship experience, the best team mentality in pro basketball right now, and an unsatisfied hunger after the Game 7 Finals loss last year, this Pistons squad has the look of a Team of Destiny. I actually watched Milwaukee completely dismantle the Knickerbockers from near-courtside at the Garden last Friday (Thanks, Gill and Ethan), and they definitely have some weapons — Michael Redd from behind the arc, TJ Ford in the open floor. Still, they’re overmatched against Detroit. Pistons in 4.

Miami Heat (2) v. Chicago Bulls (7): Scott Skiles seems to be a great coach, and Chicago is an exciting young team. Plus, they’re bound to get even better next year, since (grumble, grumble) they’re getting a Top-5 pick from the Knicks. But the Heat is home to two superheroes in Superman and Flash (who get along better these days than do Supes and Batman [via DYFL]), and Alonzo Mourning (albeit hurt) is no slouch either. Provided the Glove doesn’t revert to his terrible-LA days, and ‘Toine or White Chocolate don’t shoot ’em out of it, the Heat should get through the first round with little trouble. Heat in Five.

New Jersey Nets (3) v. Indiana Pacers (6): I still haven’t forgiven Vince Carter for his folding on Toronto a few years back — Still with he and Richard Jefferson on the wings and the inimitable Jason Kidd manning the point, New Jersey look to be a frightening playoff team, and I doubt they’ll have much trouble moving past Indiana, a squad who, post-Reggie and post-Artest, seems as if their time has passed. (That being said, I haven’t seen all that much of the Peja Pacers.) Nets in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): Will the District’s ballers manage to topple King James,or will LeBron make the Wiz look like the Washington Generals? Gilbert Arenas‘ big-game tendencies notwithstanding, I tend to favor the Cavs here. LeBron has already shown he can pretty much do it all, at least during the regular season. And while he alone probably isn’t enough (yet) to get this somewhat second-rate squad past the second round, I expect he should be able to carry Cleveland past the lowly Wiz. Cavs in 7.

The West

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Sacramento Kings (8): Like Indiana, their partner in the Peja-Artest trade, the Kings feel like a team whose time has come and gone. Sure, Mike Bibby is a playoff performer, but the Kings just don’t have enough weapons to get past the returning champions, even with Duncan and Ginobli slightly gimpy these days. Spurs in Five.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7): The fast-break-happy Phoenix Suns are easily the most watchable team in the NBA, but let’s face it — I’m really just looking forward to rooting against Kobe. Is there a pro athlete less likable this side of Barry Bonds? Particularly given that Phoenix tends not to play D (and are missing their strongest defender with Kurt Thomas out), Kobe will undoubtedly find a way –remorseless gunning, perhaps? — to score his points. Still, I expect even the Amare-less Suns can carry the day against this iteration of the Lake Show. (Yes, LA beat Phoenix by 20 last week, but Steve Nash sat out that game.) Suns in Six.

Denver Nuggets (3) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Here’s where the West gets screwy. Not only are the Clippers — the Clips! — actually in the NBA playoffs, but they also have home court over the higher-seeded Denver Nuggets. This one’s really a toss-up. On one hand, Denver has proven playoff performers in K-Mart and Marcus Camby and the NBA’s best clutch shooter in Carmelo Anthony. On the other, the Clippers have Sam Cassell at the point, who — like Robert Horry and Nick Van Exel — is one of those take-no-prisoners fourth-quarter guys who can pretty much singlehandedly will a team to victory. And all that being said, it may ultimately come down to who’s a bigger playoff choke artist — Nuggets coach George Karl or the entire Clipper franchise. My money’s on Karl. Clippers in Seven.

Dallas Mavericks (4) v. Memphis Grizzlies (5): The other strange seeding in the West — by records alone Dallas should be the #2 seed — the Mavs probably won’t be challenged very much by Memphis, although Nowitzki versus Gasol should be a fun matchup. Dallas still doesn’t buckle down on D, but they should have enough O to tame the Grizzlies. San Antonio, however, is another story… Dallas in Five.

The Rest

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): The bottom five teams in the Eastern bracket can’t really hold a candle to New Jersey, Miami, and especially Detroit, and it’ll show in this series. I expect a variation on Detroit’s old Jordan Rules will more than suffice in keeping Lebron in check. Pistons in Four.

Miami Heat (2) v. New Jersey Nets (3): This should be a fascinating series. Still, if Shaq is close to playoff form, I think Miami should pull through…While Flash should be able to run with Jefferson and Carter, the Nets don’t really have anyone who can match up with the big fella in the paint. Heat in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Dallas Mavericks (2): The Western Finals may seem like they’re coming early this year…still, we’ve been here before. If it’s San Antonio’s defense versus the Mav’s offense, advantage San Antonio. Spurs in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Sorry, Clips fans. You got to the second round for the first time since 1976. But, even with Sam Cassell, that’s all you get. Suns in Six.

EAST FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Miami Heat (2): As with the second round, if Shaq’s feeling it and the Heat start clicking, Detroit could be in serious trouble. But all-in-all, I’d say the Pistons are too deep, too experienced, and too hungry. Pistons in Seven.

WEST FINALS: San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): If Amare and Kurt were healthy, this could be a contentious series…but I just can’t really see Phoenix knocking off San Antonio without better interior defense. Spurs in Six.

FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (1): Wow, two #1 seeds — looks like I’m going out on a limb again. At any rate, this match-up has been in the cards ever since last season’s seven-game Finals, in which the home team won every game. And given that this year Detroit has home-court advantage and Duncan’s playing through serious pain…well, you do the math. Detroit in Six.

Fan-tastic 2005.

With the Knicks stinking up the joint even worse than usual, the NBA posts have been few and far between this season, despite the league having a banner year. But that doesn’t mean I’m not greatly enthused about the NBA playoffs beginning this weekend. So, in keeping with GitM tradition (2000/2001/2002/2003/2004), here are my picks for the 2005 postseason:

The East:

Miami Heat (1) v. New Jersey Nets (8): I think it’s safe to say most of the NBA fan base was looking forward to the Shaq/Flash v. King James matchup here. But, give ’em credit: Jason Kidd and Vince Carter — proving this season he flat-out gave up in Toronto — made a run and knocked Cleveland out of contention. If Shaq stays gimpy, the Heat could be in a spot of trouble. But Dwyane Wade is one heck of a player and Stan Van Gundy is one of the league’s top coaches, and I’m willing to bet they and the Big Fundamental take care of business in the first round. Miami in Six.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Philadelphia 76ers (7): I love AI — the guy’s all heart. And, with his quickness and lethal shooting touch, he once again put a sub-par Sixers squad (even after picking up an underachieving C-Webb) on his back and carried them to the playoffs. But they’re running into the 2004 Champions here, and I just don’t see them getting past the precision team-basketball of Larry Brown & Ben Wallace’s crew. Detroit in Five.

Boston Celtics (3) v. Indiana Pacers (6): This one’s tough. To his credit, Reggie Miller helped right the ship after the Ron Artest fiasco and got Indiana back on pace for his final season. Meanwhile, the return of ‘Toine to Boston has given the Celts the much-needed fire they missed most of the year (and which the intermittently disappearing Paul Pierce seems unable to provide.) Jermaine O’Neal et al are a formidable bunch, and I’m willing to bet Reggie wins at least one game on his own for old time’s sake, but I think I’m going to go Boston here, particularly as Gary Payton, so terrible last year, should play better on a Kobe-less team where he’s allowed to touch the ball. Celtics in Seven.

Chicago Bulls (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): Bulls-Wizards? This is a playoff match-up? Apparently so — both teams have finally started to thrive after their respective post-Jordan eras. I haven’t seen much of either squad this year, although I’ve heard amazing things about Chicago’s Ben Gordon, and DC’s Gilbert Arenas was a stud in Golden State in 2004. I get the feeling this’ll be the NCAA-style match-up of the playoffs, and just for the heck of it I’ll take Washington in Seven.

The West:

Phoenix Suns (1) v. Memphis Grizzlies (8): With Steve Nash leading the break and Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire on the wings, the Suns are an extraordinarily fun team to watch. That being said, Phoenix’s type of speedy O-first play generally ends up looking suspect in the D-oriented playoffs — just look at Nash’s old Mavs teams. But, Memphis doesn’t have the talent or the firepower to expose the Suns — if Minnesota had gotten their act together a few games earlier, this could have been a great first-round matchup. As it is, Phoenix in Four.

San Antonio Spurs (2) v. Denver Nuggets (7): The Spurs are as dull as Phoenix is exciting, but you have to hand it to them — they win games. Denver is loaded with talent and players I tend to root for: Carmelo, K-Mart, Andre Miller, Marcus Camby, the 5’5″ hellion Earl Boykins. But, with notorious playoff choke artist George Karl at the helm, I just don’t see Denver getting by the Spurs…unless more trouble befalls Duncan’s ankles. San Antonio in Six.

Seattle SuperSonics (3) v. Sacramento Kings (6): Just as Seattle’s star is rising this season under Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, the much-loved Sacramento team of the early ’00’s has been dismantled, with Vlade in LA, Christie in Orlando, and Webber in Philly. Sacramento still has a lot of playoff experience on this outfit, and Mike Bibby is remorseless come the post-season, but I’ll wager the Sonics get by Sactown with relatively little furor. Seattle in Six.

Dallas Mavericks (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): This one should be interesting. Dirk Nowitzki’s been having a banner year, but the Mavs are still too soft on D, and picking up the likes of Keith Van Horn doesn’t help in that regard. On the other hand, Jeff Van Gundy teams specialize in D, but will Yao and T-Mac be able to score enough to get past the Mavs? I for one hope so. Rockets in Seven.

The Rest:

Miami Heat (1) v. Washington Wizards (5): After slogging past the Nets in a tough first-rounder, the Heat’s series against the inexperienced Wizards should be relatively simple. Miami in four.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Boston Celtics (3): Boston overperformed to beat Indiana, while Detroit justs keep doing what they do. Advantage: Pistons. Detroit in Six.

Phoenix Suns (1) v. Houston Rockets (5): I still think Phoenix is flash over substance for the most part, but they’re probably too quick for the aging, offense-limited Rockets. I want to pick Houston here, but my head says Phoenix in Six.

San Antonio Spurs (2) v. Seattle Supersonics (3): Not a very TV-friendly match-up here…but, despite their being my least-favorite team in the playoffs, I’ll go with the Spurs. San Antonio in Five.

EAST FINALS: Miami Heat (1) v. Detroit Pistons (2): Shaq’s been waiting for this match-up all year, and if he’s healthy I see him having a monster series. And I’d also expect a ‘Zo sighting or two — they’ll need him to bang under the boards against the Wallaces. Still, it’ll be tough. Miami in Seven.

WEST FINALS: Phoenix Suns (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (2): Having hated on them somewhat in the past two rounds, I’d really like to see Phoenix get past Team Duncan. But, I’m just not sold — perhaps they’ll prove me wrong beginning this weekend. San Antonio in Six.

NBA FINALS: Miami Heat (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (2): It’s Shaq v. Duncan all over again (provided they can both stay off the IR), with Dwyane Wade and Manu Ginobli providing the speed and flash we’ve come to expect from the Finals. And, what with Shaq’s renaissance, the prospects of a Van Gundy title, and the sheer Kobe schadenfreude of it all, I pretty much have to go Miami in Seven.

So, that’s that, then: The East celebrates its second title in two years, with a little help from Finals MVP Shaq. Either way, with all the new faces and teams around in this transitional year — Miami, Phoenix, Seattle, Washington, Chicago, etc. — it should make for a very enjoyable postseason. Let the games begin!

I Love this Game.

Twenty minutes until my favorite sporting event of the year kicks off, so I had best hurry up and get my NBA playoff picks in order. Even the dismal news about McDyess’s third knee surgery can’t ruin this day’s excitement. (On a side note, did anyone else find it fitting that our final image of Michael Jordan was at the free throw line? Back in his heyday, he basically lived there, with the refs sending him to the line every time another player dared to breathe wrong on His Airness.) At any rate, here goes:

The (L)East – First Round: In previous seasons, I’ve gotten annoyed by people hating on the caliber of the East. But this year I have to admit, all the real action is in the West. That being said…

Detroit Pistons v. Orlando Magic: Despite their stellar D anchored by Big Ben Wallace, I really don’t think the Pistons have the offense to go all the way to the Finals. That being said, I’m pretty sure they’ll get past the Magic, despite what is sure to be crazy numbers by Tracy McGrady, the scoring leader this year. With a little luck, T-Mac could’ve carried Orlando through in a five-game series. But now that the league has gone back to seven games in the first round, there’s less room for upsets. Pistons in five.

New Jersey Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Probably the most exciting matchup in the East. Two up-tempo, no-D-playing squads led by the two best point guards in the league, Gary Payton and Jason Kidd. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll give it to New Jersey – the Bucks just haven’t been playing that well since acquiring the Glove, and in any type of playoff situation, the safe bet is always against George Karl. Nets in six.

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics: Ho-hum. With the loss of Rodney Rogers and Kenny A and the pickup of Vin Baker (a trade that was Knicks-like in its wrongheadedness), this Celtic unit is worse than the 2002 version. But the young Pacers make a lot of bad decisions, and I haven’t seen them play to their potential in months. I have a feeling this’ll be an ugly series (turnover, ‘Toine jacks a 3, turnover, Pierce jacks a 3, etc.), but Indiana’s inside game trumps Boston’s threeball assault. Pacers in six.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New Orleans Hornets: I’ve become an Allan Iverson believer ever since catching the Kings-Sixers game earlier this month – in a game filled with talent (at least on the Kings side), AI was the speediest, most dominant player on the floor. With the occasional exception of Keith Van Horn, the rest of the 76’ers are scrubs, but I think AI will get his team through the first round, particularly as Jamal Mashburn has a history of fading in the clutch. Sixers in five.

The West – First Round: Now here’s where the real excitement is, with the top 5-6 teams in the league all vying for the same spot in the Finals…

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns: Even though the Suns won the season series, I just don’t see Phoenix having much of a chance if Tim Duncan is on the floor for the Spurs. And, while he’s definitely better than Tony Parker, I’m still not sold on Stephon Marbury being much of a floor leader. It’ll be fun to see rookie Amare Stoudamire do his thing in the playoffs, but, frankly, experience wins championships. Spurs in five.

Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz: Stockton-to-Malone might’ve worked against the Timberwolves, but even then I doubt it. While the Lakers have the dynasty mojo working for them, the Kings are the most unselfish, talented, and exciting team in the league, and I for one think they’re going all the way this year. While Stockton and Malone’s durability is undeniably impressive, I have a feeling they’re going to look their age this series. Kings in four.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trailblazers: As I said before, the seven-game first round is going to cut down greatly on the freak upsets. That being said, I think this one is a tossup. Whatever their record, Dallas has proven time and time again that, despite their enormous reservoir of talent, they’re a choke-artist team. Only Nick Van Exel can be said to be truly clutch, and only he, Eduardo Najera, and Michael Finley have the ability to shut down their man. And given the media circus surrounding the “Jailblazers,” I think Portland’s going to come out with something to prove, particularly as they’ve finally drawn somebody else other than the Lakers in the first round. (LA has owned them ever since that Game 7 fourth quarter meltdown in 2000…the one where Shaq brutalized Steve Smith in the lane while the refs sucked on their whistles, but I digress.) Portland in seven.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers. It’s the Minnesota Bowl as the Lake Show returns to their former home. Everyone thinks the T-Wolves are already dead in the water against the three-time champions, but I think they’ll hang tougher than anyone suspects. Sure, Shaq and Kobe present match-up problems, but so does KG, who deserves MVP for the way he’s put this team on his back this year. In fact, I’d almost like to pick Minnesota to get past the Lakers, but Shaq is still the most unstoppable player in the league, and – much to everyone else’s dismay – he gets better every year. (As for Kobe, I think the only difference between Kobe and a player like Ray Allen is that Kobe plays on Shaq’s team. I’d make a lot of shots too if I had that kind of force in the paint erasing my mistakes. But I know most people disagree with me on this front.) At any rate, the world is waiting for the Sacramento-LA rematch. LA in seven.

The Rest of the Story:

Detroit vs. Philadelphia: This is where Detroit’s suspect offense starts getting them in trouble. Sure, Ben Wallace is a force in the paint, but the Answer is quick and wily enough to cause him trouble. Philly in six.

New Jersey vs. Indiana: As I said before, the Pacers are talented enough, but they’re also young and uneven. Reggie will come up big in at least one game, as is his wont, but in the end Captain Kidd will lead his team safely through the straits of peril. New Jersey in seven.

San Antonio vs. Los Angeles: I for one think the Spurs are a boring team to watch, and they’ve been folding against the Lakers ever since they swept them in their 1999 title run (against the, sigh, Knicks). So, having dodged the Minnesota bullet, I say the Lakers get past San Antonio relatively easily. Besides, the league wants Sacramento-LA, and will be calling the games accordingly. Lakers in six.

Sacramento vs. Portland: It’ll be an exciting series, but Portland has already overachieved and shut up the naysayers. As I noted earlier, Portland has their own LA demons to exorcise, but the Kings not only are a better team, they want it more. Sacramento in five.

***

East Finals: Philly vs. New Jersey. AI will battle mightily, but the rest of his team are going to drag him down. New Jersey in six.

West Finals: Sacramento vs. Los Angeles. It’s the main event. The Kings have been building to this point for awhile, and they already went to a Game 7 OT against the Lakers last year. (In fact, take away either Horry’s miracle shot in Game 4 or the suspect officiating in Game 6 and the Kings already have a ring.) The Lakers won’t give up the title easily, but it’s the Kings’ hour. Sacramento in seven.

Finals: Sacramento vs. New Jersey. As usual, the NBA finals will be an anticlimax. And, now that the Kings have gone through rather the Lakers, the Mutombo trade will have proven to be an absolute bust for New Jersey. The Kings took the Nets apart during the regular season, and the same thing will happen here. Unlike last year, the Nets will win a game…but that’s about it. Kings in five.

To sum up, Sacramento wins it all. So there you have it. Let’s see how wrong I can be. Right now, the Nets are up 21 on the Bucks. (54-33) Good to see George Karl living down to expectations.