The Trickle of the Supers…

I posted earlier today on superdelegate Christine Samuels switching from Clinton to Obama. Now, according to the AP, it seems Clinton may be losing a few more: Based on his district’s overwhelming support for the Senator from Illinois, Rep. David Scott (D-GA) has switched to Clinton from Obama, and “two other superdelegates, Sophie Masloff of Pennsylvania and Nancy Larson of Minnesota, are uncommitted, having dropped their earlier endorsements of Clinton.” And, perhaps buttressing TNR’s recent argument that Clinton’s support among Black establishment figures is wavering, none other than Rep. John Lewis goes on record about a possible switch: “‘It could (happen). There’s no question about it. It could happen with a lot of people…we can count and we see the clock,’ he said.” (Which reminds me: A good place to keep track of superdelegate shifts, if you haven’t found it yet, is DemConWatch.)

Update: It’s official. John Lewis switches to Obama. “‘In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,’ said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. ‘Something is happening in America and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap…’I’ve been very impressed with the campaign of Senator Obama,’ Mr. Lewis said. ‘He’s getting better and better every single day.’” Update 2: Or did he? Now, everyone’s confused.

Love is a battlefield.

A Valentine’s afternoon campaign roundup:

“I believe Senator Obama is the best candidate to restore American credibility, to restore our confidence to be moral and to bring people together to solve the complex issues such as the economy, the environment and global stability.” Former Republican (now Independent and Dubya critic) Senator Lincoln Chafee officially endorses Obama. The Senator from Illinois also picked up a Clinton superdelegate in Christine “Roz” Samuels (meaning, as MSNBC points out, a 2-point swing in the superdelegate column.) And Al Gore, meanwhile, has confirmed to TNR that he will not be endorsing anyone. “Basically, Gore appears to be preserving for himself the option of stepping in and declaring a winner in the event of a war over superdelegates, and thus being seen as a kind of mediating figure, rather than as someone trying to influence the outcome” Given yesterday’s threat of a party meltdown by the Clinton campaign, that’ll probably be more useful for Sen. Obama anyway.

Meanwhile, in an interview with WMAL, Bill Clinton just makes up random stuff as he goes along. (I was going to say he was commiting seppuku to his legacy, but, as Wikipedia just reminded me, seppuku involves dying with honor.) “Of his wife’s recent travails, he said, ‘the caucuses aren’t good for her. They disproportionately favor upper-income voters who, who, don’t really need a president but feel like they need a change.’” (If you’re keeping score at home, be sure to add “upper-income voters” to the 20 states in the “not-significant” column.) “‘I think she has been the underdog ever since Iowa,’ Clinton said. “She’s had, you know, a lot of the politicians, like Senator Kennedy, opposed to her…He said they’d done well considering their slim budget. ‘We’ve gotten plenty of delegates on a shoestring,’ he said. He did not mention that his wife’s campaign has raised more than $140 million.“

The best news for the Clinton team today: As of this past weekend, Sen. Clinton still held a big lead in Ohio (between 14 and 21 points, depending on the poll.) Of course, these were taken before the Potomac results and before Sen. Obama has started campaigning on the ground, and they still don’t show the kind of massive spread Sen. Clinton needs to take back the pledged delegate lead. But I’m sure they’ll take solace where they can find it. Update: I’ve tried to swear off taking much out of polls of late, but there’s an interesting further discussion of the Wisconsin and Ohio poll numbers here.)

Update 2: “That’s the difference between me and my Democratic opponent. My opponent gives speeches, I offer solutions.” With really no other recourse at this point, Sen. Clinton (and her husband) try the blunderbuss of negativity approach. I’d point out the many flaws in Sen. Clinton’s screed today, but, as it turns out, the Obama team has already done it for me. I’ll just leave it at this: Can anyone point to a single “solution” Sen. Clinton has ever offered and carried through for the American people? And, no, running health care reform into the ground in 1994 doesn’t count. Well, to be fair, I guess she did once go out on a limb to put an end to the horrible scourge of flag-burning. Now, that takes leadership.

Clinton: If we have to, we’ll steal it.

It’s sad to have to put aside the Valentine’s Day cheer so soon after midnight, but there’s no other way to put it: The Clinton campaign have lost their damn fool minds. At first, all seemed well. In an article by NYT‘s Adam Nagourney, Clinton officials reiterated what Howard Fineman reported last night: that the Clinton campaign basically admitted they wouldn’t match Sen. Obama’s pledged delegate total. “Mrs. Clinton’s advisers acknowledged that it would be difficult for her to catch up in the race for pledged delegates even if she succeeded in winning Ohio and Texas in three weeks and Pennsylvania in April. They said the Democratic Party’s rules, which award delegates relatively evenly among the candidates based on the proportion of the vote they receive, would require her to win by huge margins in those states to match Mr. Obama in delegates won through voting.” This is true, and it’s the crux of their dilemma. Their last hope lies in racking up massive and decisive wins in Ohio and Texas, which is highly unlikely but worth the old college try. But, here’s the warning sign: “With every delegate precious, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers also made it clear that they were prepared to take a number of potentially incendiary steps to build up Mrs. Clinton’s count.“

Sure enough, they have. According to the Boston Globe, forget Ohio and Texas: The Clinton campaign has said it will not concede the race, even if it is clear they’ve lost the delegate count on June 7 (Puerto Rico). “Clinton will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton’s communications director, Howard Wolfson.” Never give up, never surrender! So, in effect, they’re saying they’ll risk an ugly and suicidal party schism, in the vain hope that the superdelegates don’t decide to renounce them en masse once they come in second, which they’re now basically admitting they will. And how are they going to convince the supers to back their play? Enter campaign strategist Mark Penn: “Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn’t won any of the significant states — outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.“

So…sorry you had to hear it this way, but Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, the Virgin Islands, and Washington: you are not significant. Or at least according to the Clinton campaign. But please do vote Democratic in November.

As I said above, I never expected the Clinton campaign to make any drastic decisions until after March 4. I mean, I know they themselves aren’t big on the audacity of hope, but you never know: They might well be able to pull out the huge margins they need in both Ohio and Texas to stay mathematically viable. Stranger things have happened, some in this very election, and after the New Hampshire comeback, I’m not going to count them out until those returns come in. But, right now, they’re flat-out embarrassing themselves. [Globe and MSNBC links via TPM.]

Update: The Prospect‘s Ezra Klein is not happy: “If Hillary Clinton does not win delegates out of a majority of contested primaries and caucuses, her aides are willing to rip the party apart to secure the nomination, to cheat in a way that will rend the Democratic coalition and probably destroy Clinton’s chances in the general election…This demonstrates not only a gross ruthlessness on the part of Clinton’s campaign, but an astonishingly cavalier attitude towards the preservation of the progressive coalition. To be willing to blithely rip it to shreds in order to wrest a nomination that’s not been fairly earned is not only low, but a demonstration of deeply pernicious priorities.“

McKinnon to stand down.

“‘I would simply be uncomfortable being in a campaign that would be inevitably attacking Barack Obama,’ said McCain adviser Mark McKinnon in an interview with NPR’s ‘All Things Considered.’ ‘I think it would be uncomfortable for me, and I think it would be bad for the McCain campaign.'” McCain advisor (and former Dem) Mark McKinnon says he’ll step down if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. “‘I met Barack Obama, I read his book, I like him a great deal,’ said McKinnon. ‘I disagree with him on very fundamental issues. But I think, as I said, I think it would a great race for the country.'”

A blip, or two ships passing?

It’s just one poll, of an almost meaningless sample, now that we’re past Super Tuesday. As we all know, polls have often not been kind to Obama supporters over the past month or so. And the last thing the Obama campaign needs right now is a false sense of security. But, since I’ve been willing these lines to cross every day over the past few weeks, screw it: I’m blogging it: Obama finally pulls ever-so-slightly ahead of Clinton in the Gallup daily tracker, 45%-44%. Onward and upward. Update: Sen. Obama takes his first statistical lead, 49%-42%. But will it hold?

Vote or Die.

“We can’t deny the facts, people. All we will get by electing an African-American is Texas-size space particles crashing into the Earth’s surface, mega-tsunamis that barrel into the Appalachian Mountains, and 6.6 billion dead people.” Howard Wolfson, take notes: By way of The Oak, The Onion preempts a potential Clinton campaign line of attack: “Do We Really Want Another Black President After The Events Of Deep Impact?” “I’m not suggesting that President Freeman was directly responsible for the creation of the Wolf-Beiderman comet or its Earth-bound path. That would be ridiculous. What I am saying is that under the watch of a black man that comet destroyed the entire Eastern seaboard. So, if history is any indicator, a vote for Barack Obama in 2008 is essentially a vote for the complete and total obliteration of the human race.”

The Last Dog…is feeling poorly.

“What we are seeing is way beyond historical or transformational. The human mind cannot get around what is happening in politics.” James Carville (my former employer) goes on the record about election 2008, and Clinton’s prospects going forward. “She’s behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done.” (What he didn’t say: if Clinton doesn’t win Texas and Ohio by large margins, this thing is also done. Given the delegate situation, a tie goes to Obama.)

In related news, another 1992 Clinton campaign head, David Wilhelm, jumps ship to Obama. “He said in a conference call today that Mr. Obama was more electable than Senator Hillary Clinton. Mr. Obama’s campaign is evidence of his leadership, he said, calling it ‘masterful.’ ‘He has out-worked her, out-organized her and out-raised her,’ Mr. Wilhelm said. ‘I know organizational excellence when I see it, and the Obama campaign, win or lose, will serve as a model’ of execution of strategy, message discipline, application of new technology and small-donor fund raising.” Happily, Wilhelm is also a resident of Ohio, a former DNC head and a superdelegate.

Wisconsin Battle Stations.

“Two senior Clinton advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, said the campaign feels the New York senator needs to quickly change the dynamic by forcing Obama into a poor debate performance, going negative or encouraging the media to attack Obama. They’re grasping at straws, but the advisers said they can’t see any other way that her campaign will be sustainable after losing 10 in a row.” Last night was grand, but there’ll be no resting on laurels just yet. The Clinton campaign redoubles its efforts in Wisconsin, putting out a new ad attacking Obama for the debate schedule. (Of course, allegations of debate-ducking is usually the last province of the also-ran. TNR, for example, dug up this campaign ad by NY Dem Jonathan Tasini attacking Sen. Clinton for…refusing to debate.) Update: A new Obama ad responds with class.

In the meantime, AP’s Ron Fournier argues that many of the superdelegates are more than ready to balk the Clintons: “Some are folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? ‘What,’ Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, ‘isn’t two Cabinet posts enough?’“

But if not Richardson, what of Edwards? While Sen. Obama delves into rhetorical Edwards/Feingold country (in Sen. Feingold’s hometown of Janesville, WI, no less), ABC News suggests the Senator from North Carolina might be leaning towards endorsing Clinton at this point. That’d be a surprise, to say the least.

The Storm Ahead.

While the focus is now rightly on Wisconsin and Hawaii, some thoughts on the March 4 contests (I didn’t want to post these until the chickens had hatched and the Chesapeake came through):

The good news: Part primary, part caucus, Texas is basically a logistical nightmare. That’s good news for the Obama campaign, since thus far it has shown considerable organizational savvy, particularly as compared to Team Clinton. (In fact, people who seem to know what they’re talking about are predicting a delegate lead for Obama in the Lone Star State.)

The bad news: A SurveyUSA poll released today has Sen. Obama down 17 in Ohio. We have work to do.

Surge along the Potomac.

And now, 8-for-8. Sen. Obama sweeps the Chesapeake primaries, taking Virginia by 29 (64%-35%), Maryland by 23 (currently 60%-37%), and the District by 51 (75%-24%). Best of all, he won across the board and made clear and undeniable in-roads into Clinton’s demographic base. Next stop, Wisconsin and Hawaii, which Sen. Clinton seems to be ceding for her Giulianiesque firewall of Ohio and Texas. (I’m not sure why — both could feasibly play to her strengths.) Update: Clinton’s going to Wisconsin after all.

Capping the night of victories was another splendid speech by Obama, one that clearly and organically weaved some Edwardsian bread-and-butter populism into the existing stump speech. Sen. Obama also spent some time going after John McCain, and, after ekeing out Virginia on his end, McCain returned fire. We still have a ways to go on the Democratic side, of course, and I’m definitely not counting the Clintons out yet. (If anything, they’re more dangerous than ever.) But, Obama’s definitely got the Big Mo. And, at least during the speeches tonight, it was starting to look and sound like a general election…

Update: The target for the Clinton campaign right now appears to be 56% — that’s the percentage of remaining delegates Senator Clinton need to win to defeat Senator Obama in the overall pledged delegate count. But, according to media poobah Howard Fineman, at least, even the Clinton campaign concedes that’s not going to happen, despite all the talk about the firewall strategy in Ohio and Texas. Instead, barring a monumental collapse by the Obama campaign, the Clintons are basically looking for they closest they can get to a photo finish, followed by the superdelegates breaking against the will of the pledged delegates. I seriously doubt that dog will hunt.