Pollster John Zogby believes Kerry will win in November. That’s good to hear, and I’m inclined to believe him…but I also think that the issue that will define this election has yet to occur, for good or ill. Either way, Kerry’s current press slump is nothing to write home about. There’s always a dry spell for challengers between the end of the primaries and the choosing of the veep. Um, so who is going to be the veep, anyway?
Tag: Democrats
The Odd Couple.
Come on aboard, join hands, start a love train…All seems swell with Kerry and Dean as the two most heated rivals of the nomination contest ponder the general election together. Yeeagh!
Kerry ’04.
So, to no one’s real surprise over these past few weeks, our horse is John Kerry. Ok, then, let’s bring it on (and let the veep sweepstakes begin.) I’m sure it’ll be a tight race before it’s over, but for the moment, even the House GOP is thinking Kerry these days.
Day of Decision.
Super Tuesday has arrived, and many pundits are predicting it to be the last stand of John Edwards, who’s got mathematical problems even if he should upset in a few states tonight. Nevertheless, I voted for Edwards this morning (although the machine I used was so Third World that I have to wonder if my vote’ll get counted), not because I prefer him all that much to Kerry in the end — I think either will make a fine candidate this year — but more because (a) he bothered to show up here twice, and (b) with his personal charm and rhetorical focus on poverty, I believe he has a bright future in the Democratic party. If my vote can help suggest that he has a following outside the South, good for it. All that being said, I’m happy with Kerry too, and he can expect my vote in November, if (ok, when) he proves to be the Dem nominee.
Frontal Assault or Friendly Fire?
The Bush team start prepping their anti-Kerry ads, and, fortunately for the Dems, they’re still living in Fantasyland. “If they run ads about [the Vietnam era], they will probably focus on Kerry’s high-profile opposition to the Vietnam War and comments about U.S. atrocities that could neutralize his record as a decorated veteran.” Um, yeah, ’cause veterans are usually all for atrocities. Still, even amid all the wishful thinking, Dubya’s reps do allow themselves a moment of clarity: “Acknowledging that Bush has received major financial support from corporations, McKinnon said: ‘The issue is hypocrisy in saying you’re going to take on the special interests, not who took the most special interest money. You don’t hear the president in the Oval Office railing against the special interests.'” Well, that’s true, you don’t, but that fact hardly makes for a compelling campaign ad.
But what about the politics of cynicism and misanthropy?
As it turns out, I was able to make it to the John Edwards event on campus this morning, and, all in all, I’d give him a B+. He both read and rushed through the first half of his remarks, which involved some new formulation of his trade policy (more on that in a second), and I found his opening lines particularly ham-handed and speechwriterly. “I know y’all have been waiting for a Son of the South to come to NYC…A-Rod,” he said (and I’m paraphrasing.) “Well, I’m not A-Rod, but Wisconsin proved one thing: I can close!” Um, ok, but A-Rod is a shortstop and all, not a closer.
Anyway, nitpicking aside, Edwards improved measurably once he put the paper down and got into the rhythm of his “Two Americas” stump speech, which he’d clearly delivered many times. There were moments, however, when he definitely could have embellished his standard schtick, given the crowd. Edwards talked about how he was a lonely, legal David often going up and winning cases against a Goliath-sized team of corporate lawyers, a biographical stat which probably plays great in the Heartland. It went flat here, though, perhaps because the many law students in the auditorium seemed confused by his remarks: But we want to be those well-paid corporate shills!
Still, Edwards came off extremely polished and personable, and he definitely got the crowd on his side, even when he was blindsided by a sneak “Campaign on AIDS!” protest on the dais behind him. Several members of the VIP crowd unveiled red-ribbon shirts and began chanting right in the middle of his biographical portion (In fact, I could’ve sworn it was right after he gave the “son of a millworker” line, which was a clever signal to choose, if nothing else.) Edwards gave them a moment, asked the crowd to applaud the “activism of these young people,” calmly told a heckler he’d address their point after finishing his bio, and then said a few positive words about fighting AIDS at home and abroad (A critical world issue to be sure, but not a particularly controversial one in this day and age…c’mon, y’all, this isn’t 1988. And why try to derail a candidate who is politically sympathetic to your cause, particularly when Karl Rove is across town?) At any rate, no harm no foul for Team Edwards: He navigated this potentially rocky shoal extremely successfully, although I presume some advance guy or gal was given the serious what-for soon thereafter.
As for the trade stuff, I liked where he was going at first, but he eventually seem to fall back on the fair trade side of the usual dichotomy. As I see it, the problem isn’t free trade itself per se as much as the loss of American jobs, as well as the ugly spectacle of corporations firing tons of US workers only to turn right around and offer up a fat dividend. Edwards obliquely mentioned this formulation, then fell back on tax breaks for “good” corporations and the trouble with NAFTA. My feeling is, if you want to stop this kind of behavior, there needs to be more stick and less carrot. Hit business where it hurts: Tax the heck out of (or even, God forbid, disallow) corporate dividends that occur in the same fiscal year as the downsizing of X number of American jobs. Simply put, if you can’t afford to pay your workers anymore, you damn well shouldn’t be paying dividends to stockholders. Edwards came close to saying thus, but then fell back into the old free trade/fair trade rut, which to my mind is a bit like shouting into the wind. If you want to change corporate behavior, focus on corporate behavior…don’t blame the increasingly irreversible trend of globalization.
At any rate, all in all Edwards came off quite well, although not as inspiring or Clintonesque as I would’ve originally liked. He’s definitely got a great future in the party and in American politics, and he’d no doubt make a solid contender in this election season against the likes of Dubya (or Dick Cheney.)
The Bitter Fruits of Defeat.
Following up on a Franklin Foer TNR article I first saw over at Value Judgement, Hannah Rosin examines the plight of DC’s Deaniacs now that the party’s over. Although it wasn’t nearly as well reported, I remember a similar purge happening after Bill Bradley went down last cycle, and, trust me, they can get ugly. (But, at least last time, all was forgiven after Al Gore screwed up the general.)
The Doctor is Out.
After a long, slow, and dismal post-Iowa slide (which, as Chris Suellentrop waggishly put it, wound up “with the leisurely pace of the interminable conclusion of The Return of the King“), Dr. Dean calls it quits, leaving basically a two-man field for the nomination. (Early scuttlebutt had Dean possibly endorsing Edwards, but, although Edwards sent the right signals, Dean instead asked his supporters, strangely enough, to vote his name despite his leaving the race.)
Well, I guess it’ll probably take some time to put Dean’s swift rise and swifter fall in perspective (Is this Goldwater, McCarthy, Muskie, or something altogether new?) To be honest, I was always a bit surprised by the furor surrounding Dean, given that he was neither as lefty nor as populist as many of his followers seemed to think. I know many found him inspiring, but, even after tentatively getting behind him, I never really saw it or felt it…in fact, quite the contrary. So, while it’s always a bit disconcerting to see something that started so well end so badly, I’m can’t say I’m overly aggrieved by this turn of events. As I said before, if the nominee is Kerry, so be it.
Of course, there’s still the matter of John Edwards, whose surprise showing in Wisconsin definitely keeps him viable for at least one more round. Kerry’s overwhelming lead aside, I’ve been quite enthused by the rise of Edwards since Iowa, who seems like the type of fresh and viable new face the Democratic Party’s been needing for some time. Whether or not he has a chance of coming back to win it all this year, I’m inclined to vote for him, if only to show he’s got some legs outside the South. At any rate, he’ll be speaking on campus early this morning so, if all goes well, I may get a chance to see how he comes off in person.
The Nitty-Gritty.
With the nomination basically sealed up, Team Kerry (and the White House) now turn their attention to the red state/blue state calculus of the general election. So far, the talk is basically what you’d expect: “Bush advisers hope to keep Kerry pinned down trying to hold on to states that former vice president Al Gore narrowly won in 2000 — Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan among them…[On the other hand,] Bush also will have to fight hard to win some of his red states that have suffered economically. ‘Bush has got to thread the needle,’ said a GOP strategist in one of the battleground states. ‘He won several states by a very small margin. Look at Ohio, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, New Hampshire. I just think it’s a tough sled.'” And, in related news, The Atlantic‘s Josh Green evaluates the swing regions in 2004.
Zellfire and brimstone.
“The Culture of Far Left America was displayed in a startling way during the Super Bowl’s now infamous half-time show. A show brought to us courtesy of Value-Les Moonves and the pagan temple of Viacom-Babylon…Does any responsible adult ever listen to the words of this rap-crap?” Um, say what? Off the reservation yet again, Zell Miller embarrasses the Democrats with this ridiculous “deficit of decency” speech on the Senate floor. And I didn’t even quote the “Christocrat” stuff. Let’s lose this guy, already.