“We can’t deny the facts, people. All we will get by electing an African-American is Texas-size space particles crashing into the Earth’s surface, mega-tsunamis that barrel into the Appalachian Mountains, and 6.6 billion dead people.” Howard Wolfson, take notes: By way of The Oak, The Onion preempts a potential Clinton campaign line of attack: “Do We Really Want Another Black President After The Events Of Deep Impact?” “I’m not suggesting that President Freeman was directly responsible for the creation of the Wolf-Beiderman comet or its Earth-bound path. That would be ridiculous. What I am saying is that under the watch of a black man that comet destroyed the entire Eastern seaboard. So, if history is any indicator, a vote for Barack Obama in 2008 is essentially a vote for the complete and total obliteration of the human race.”
Tag: Election 2008
The Last Dog…is feeling poorly.
“What we are seeing is way beyond historical or transformational. The human mind cannot get around what is happening in politics.” James Carville (my former employer) goes on the record about election 2008, and Clinton’s prospects going forward. “She’s behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done.” (What he didn’t say: if Clinton doesn’t win Texas and Ohio by large margins, this thing is also done. Given the delegate situation, a tie goes to Obama.)
In related news, another 1992 Clinton campaign head, David Wilhelm, jumps ship to Obama. “He said in a conference call today that Mr. Obama was more electable than Senator Hillary Clinton. Mr. Obama’s campaign is evidence of his leadership, he said, calling it ‘masterful.’ ‘He has out-worked her, out-organized her and out-raised her,’ Mr. Wilhelm said. ‘I know organizational excellence when I see it, and the Obama campaign, win or lose, will serve as a model’ of execution of strategy, message discipline, application of new technology and small-donor fund raising.” Happily, Wilhelm is also a resident of Ohio, a former DNC head and a superdelegate.
McCain-Rice?
“Democrats who think it’s going to be a cakewalk into the White House next November had best remember one name: Condoleezza Rice.” Will John McCain pick Condi Rice as his running mate? A scarily plausible scenario.
Wisconsin Battle Stations.
“Two senior Clinton advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, said the campaign feels the New York senator needs to quickly change the dynamic by forcing Obama into a poor debate performance, going negative or encouraging the media to attack Obama. They’re grasping at straws, but the advisers said they can’t see any other way that her campaign will be sustainable after losing 10 in a row.” Last night was grand, but there’ll be no resting on laurels just yet. The Clinton campaign redoubles its efforts in Wisconsin, putting out a new ad attacking Obama for the debate schedule. (Of course, allegations of debate-ducking is usually the last province of the also-ran. TNR, for example, dug up this campaign ad by NY Dem Jonathan Tasini attacking Sen. Clinton for…refusing to debate.) Update: A new Obama ad responds with class.
In the meantime, AP’s Ron Fournier argues that many of the superdelegates are more than ready to balk the Clintons: “Some are folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? ‘What,’ Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, ‘isn’t two Cabinet posts enough?’“
But if not Richardson, what of Edwards? While Sen. Obama delves into rhetorical Edwards/Feingold country (in Sen. Feingold’s hometown of Janesville, WI, no less), ABC News suggests the Senator from North Carolina might be leaning towards endorsing Clinton at this point. That’d be a surprise, to say the least.
Please (Go), Mr. Henry | Loyalty above all.
A change in the weather is known to be extreme, but what’s the sense of changing horses in midstream? The Clinton campaign shake-up continues, with deputy campaign manager Mike Henry following Patty Doyle out (he’s the guy who suggested skipping Iowa — that’s looking rather prescient these days) and Hillary’s web team also getting the boot.
In the meantime, The Atlantic‘s Josh Green tells the backstory of the Solis Doyle firing, and see Dubyaesque overtones therein. “Rather than punish Solis Doyle or raise questions about her fitness to lead, Clinton chose her to manage the presidential campaign for reasons that should now be obvious: above all, Clinton prizes loyalty and discipline, and Solis Doyle demonstrated both traits, if little else. This suggests to me that for all the emphasis Clinton has placed on executive leadership in this campaign, her own approach is a lot closer to the current president’s than her supporters might like to admit.“
The Storm Ahead.
While the focus is now rightly on Wisconsin and Hawaii, some thoughts on the March 4 contests (I didn’t want to post these until the chickens had hatched and the Chesapeake came through):
The good news: Part primary, part caucus, Texas is basically a logistical nightmare. That’s good news for the Obama campaign, since thus far it has shown considerable organizational savvy, particularly as compared to Team Clinton. (In fact, people who seem to know what they’re talking about are predicting a delegate lead for Obama in the Lone Star State.)
The bad news: A SurveyUSA poll released today has Sen. Obama down 17 in Ohio. We have work to do.
Surge along the Potomac.
And now, 8-for-8. Sen. Obama sweeps the Chesapeake primaries, taking Virginia by 29 (64%-35%), Maryland by 23 (currently 60%-37%), and the District by 51 (75%-24%). Best of all, he won across the board and made clear and undeniable in-roads into Clinton’s demographic base. Next stop, Wisconsin and Hawaii, which Sen. Clinton seems to be ceding for her Giulianiesque firewall of Ohio and Texas. (I’m not sure why — both could feasibly play to her strengths.) Update: Clinton’s going to Wisconsin after all.
Capping the night of victories was another splendid speech by Obama, one that clearly and organically weaved some Edwardsian bread-and-butter populism into the existing stump speech. Sen. Obama also spent some time going after John McCain, and, after ekeing out Virginia on his end, McCain returned fire. We still have a ways to go on the Democratic side, of course, and I’m definitely not counting the Clintons out yet. (If anything, they’re more dangerous than ever.) But, Obama’s definitely got the Big Mo. And, at least during the speeches tonight, it was starting to look and sound like a general election…
Update: The target for the Clinton campaign right now appears to be 56% — that’s the percentage of remaining delegates Senator Clinton need to win to defeat Senator Obama in the overall pledged delegate count. But, according to media poobah Howard Fineman, at least, even the Clinton campaign concedes that’s not going to happen, despite all the talk about the firewall strategy in Ohio and Texas. Instead, barring a monumental collapse by the Obama campaign, the Clintons are basically looking for they closest they can get to a photo finish, followed by the superdelegates breaking against the will of the pledged delegates. I seriously doubt that dog will hunt.
Obama endorses La Follette.
From Senator Obama’s impressive victory speech in Wisconsin this evening:
“The politics of hope does not mean hoping things come easy. Because nothing worthwhile in this country has ever happened unless somebody, somewhere stood up when it was hard; stood up when they were told – no you can’t, and said yes we can.
And where better to affirm our ideals than here in Wisconsin, where a century ago the progressive movement was born. It was rooted in the principle that the voices of the people can speak louder than special interests; that citizens can be connected to their government and to one another; and that all of us share a common destiny, an American Dream.
Yes we can reclaim that dream. Yes we can heal this nation.“
The progressives are back!
The Chesapeake Campaign.
Today’s the Battle of the Beltway: If you’re a DC, MD, or VA resident, please consider voting for Barack Obama. Update: Not to be forgotten, the global primary is today too.
Last Stand in Texas and Ohio?
“Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, also said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend. Some of them said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, may ultimately ‘go with the flow,’ in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.” The NYT reports on the general shakiness in the Clinton campaign at the moment, and reemphasizes the importance of Ohio and Texas on March 4. (Jon Chait disagrees.)”‘She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,’ said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. ‘The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.’ Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.“
All well and good, but really: Let’s not put the cart before the horse here. We have the Chesapeake primaries tomorrow, and while the polls clearly favor Sen. Obama, they favored him before New Hampshire as well. Let’s see how those critical primaries shake out first before presuming the Clinton campaign is in full rout. As we should all know by now, there’s nothing more politically dangerous than a Clinton with his or her back to the wall. (And, being as oblique as possible for Wire fans behind the curve, Norman Wilson‘s recent advice to Tommy Carcetti about Clay Davis also comes to mind.)