It’s the End of the World As We Know It?

“So, here we are. The two major powers in this confrontation are led by blunderers; the provocateur is a chronic miscalculator. It doesn’t look good.” Oh, so there‘s the WMD: As John Bolton pushes for aggressive sanctions at the UN against the Kim Jong-Il regime, Slate‘s Fred Kaplan parses several ugly scenarios that could unfold after North Korea’s nuclear gamble on Monday (the same day, coincidentally, that South Korean Ban Ki-moon won official Security Council backing to replace Kofi Annan. Looks like he’ll be working overtime right out of the box.) By the way, if you’re keeping score at home, Dubya & co. now seem to have grievously mishandled all three prongs of the “axis of evil” trifecta. Sigh. That’s great, it starts with an earthquake…

Army of None.

“The generals’ revolt has spread inside the Pentagon, and the point of the spear is one of Donald Rumsfeld’s most favored officers, Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, the Army chief of staff.” Slate‘s Fred Kaplan examines the newest military complaints against Dubya and Rummy: They’ve wrecked the US Army. “This new phase of rebellion isn’t aimed at the war in Iraq directly, as was the protest by six retired generals that made headlines last spring. But in some ways, it’s more potent, and not just because Schoomaker is very much on active duty. His challenge is dramatic because he’s questioning one of the war’s consequences — its threat to the Army’s ability to keep functioning.“

Strategery in Action.

“As for Iraq, it’s no news that Bush has no strategy. What did come as news — and, really, a bit of a shocker — is that he doesn’t seem to know what ‘strategy’ means.” Slate‘s Fred Kaplan tears apart another dismal Dubya press conference. At this point, it’s a bit like shooting fish in a barrel, isn’t it?

The Enemy of my Enemy.

“There’s a broader lesson here, and it speaks to the Bush administration’s present jam throughout the Middle East and in other danger zones. If the British had adopted the same policy toward dealing with Pakistan that Bush has adopted toward dealing with, say, Syria or Iran (namely, it’s an evil regime, and we don’t speak with evil regimes), then a lot of passenger planes would have shattered and spilled into the ocean, hundreds or thousands of people would have died, and the world would have suddenly been plunged into very scary territory.” In light of yesterday’s foiled plot, Slate‘s Fred Kaplan points out one of the critical flaws of Dubya Diplomacy (which, thankfully, the British do not share.)

Democracy Dubyaed Down | Condi’s PhD Shield.

“Once again, Bush demonstrated that he doesn’t understand what makes young democracies flourish or why Hezbollah has appeal even to many nonterrorists. He doesn’t seem to realize that democratic governments require democratic institutions and the resources to make them thrive. He evinces no awareness that the longer Israel bombs Beirut into oblivion, the harder it becomes for Siniora (who has few resources) to retain legitimacy — and the easier it becomes for Hezbollah (which has many more resources) to gain still greater power.” Slate‘s Fred Kaplan parses yet another dismaying press performance by Dubya regarding the current international scene.

Update: “Scholars who enter the chambers of power should use their training as a tool to help them make decisions. Condi Rice is using hers as a chant to wish away the consequences.” In a related piece, Kaplan examines Condoleeza Rice’s tendency to hide behind her PhD when faced with tough questions. Well, she may be a “student of history,” but as Sean Wilentz noted earlier, she’s never been a very good one when you get right down to it (although, to her credit, she has been very busy creating work for future members of the profession.)

Failure to Launch.

“George Bush’s luck hasn’t run out just yet. North Korea’s Fourth of July missile fizzle is the biggest diplomatic break that the president has caught all term — and the biggest setback (‘catastrophe’ wouldn’t be too strong a word) that his most-loathed nemesis, Kim Jong-il, has suffered in years.” Slate‘s Fred Kaplan sees good news for the US in yesterday’s North Korean rocket launch, as, in effect, “Kim Jong-il shook the dice and rolled craps.” Still, “[w]hat happens next is worthy of nail-biting.”

Full Slate.

“Where is the analyst at a firm called Forrester Research who used to be quoted everywhere calling us, witlessly, ‘the Slatanic’? Haven’t heard much from him lately.” A happy 10th anniversary to Michael Kinsley’s Slate, home to Dahlia Lithwick, Fred Kaplan, Seth Stevenson, and several other writers and journalists invariably worth checking out.

Pyongyang Redux?

“It’s ironic that President Bush is now endorsing a diplomatic stance toward Iran so similar to the stance that President Clinton took toward North Korea. When he first took office, Bush so feverishly opposed the Agreed Framework with North Korea in large part because Clinton had produced it.” Slate‘s Fred Kaplan wonders whether President Clinton’s Agreed Framework with North Korea might help to contain Iran. The verdict? Possibly maybe, particularly given that we have no real alternatives.

Red Letter Day.

“In short, [the letter] provides a perfect opportunity for Bush to do what he should have been doing for the last few years — to lay out what America stands for, what we have in common with Muslim nations, and how our differences can be tolerated or settled without conflict.” Also in Slate, Fred Kaplan offers some sage advice on how to respond to Admadinejad’s recent letter. “Bush and Ahmadinejad — two of the world’s most stubborn, self-righteous leaders. It’s at once hopeful and pathetic that the next step in their confrontation — whether it intensifies or slackens — could be determined by whether Bush answers or brushes off a goofy letter.“

Talk ’em down.

“There are two likely outcomes from serious American efforts to negotiate, both good. First, if Iran cooperates with the talks, then it might suspend its nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits. Second, if Iran doesn’t cooperate, then the Bush administration will have made its case to China, Russia, and Europe that the regime is dangerous and untrustworthy. At that point it will be much easier to impose the economic sanctions that will scare the Iranians into better behavior.” With the military strike option looking increasingly ill-conceived, if not suicidal, Slate‘s Fred Kaplan makes the case anew for a diplomatic solution to our current problems with Iran. Update: Dubya the Decider declares, “All options are on the table.” (Yes, that includes nukes.)