“There are two likely outcomes from serious American efforts to negotiate, both good. First, if Iran cooperates with the talks, then it might suspend its nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits. Second, if Iran doesn’t cooperate, then the Bush administration will have made its case to China, Russia, and Europe that the regime is dangerous and untrustworthy. At that point it will be much easier to impose the economic sanctions that will scare the Iranians into better behavior.” With the military strike option looking increasingly ill-conceived, if not suicidal, Slate‘s Fred Kaplan makes the case anew for a diplomatic solution to our current problems with Iran. Update: Dubya the Decider declares, “All options are on the table.” (Yes, that includes nukes.)
Tag: Middle East
Easter Escalation.
While the Pope, Kofi Annan, Richard Clarke, and others try to stem the increasing saber-rattling over Iran, more trouble brews in Tehran: Along with possibly expanding their nuclear fuel plants and upgrading their centrifuges, the “Iranian government has intensified efforts to illegally obtain weapons technology from the United States.” Well, let’s at least hope the White House isn’t helping them this time…
Trailer Trash.
Add one more lie to the pile: “On May 29, 2003, 50 days after the fall of Baghdad, President Bush proclaimed a fresh victory for his administration in Iraq: Two small trailers captured by U.S. and Kurdish troops had turned out to be long-sought mobile ‘biological laboratories.’ He declared, ‘We have found the weapons of mass destruction.’…But even as Bush spoke, U.S. intelligence officials possessed powerful evidence that it was not true.” The Washington Post recounts step-by-step the tale of Dubya’s fake WMD trailers, sending White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan into a paroxysm of aggressively circular spin. As it turns out, even though Dubya had been notified the trailers were a red herring two days before his above comments, “for nearly a year, administration and intelligence officials continued to publicly assert that the trailers were weapons factories.“
Rumors of War?
“God may smile on us, but I don’t think so. The bottom line is that Iran cannot become a nuclear-weapons state. The problem is that the Iranians realize that only by becoming a nuclear state can they defend themselves against the U.S. Something bad is going to happen.” Although Dubya is personally dismissing the report as “wild speculation”, The New Yorker‘s Sy Hersh argues in a terrifying piece that the administration is actively planning for “regime change” in Iran, and — no joke — the use of tactical nuclear weapons (particularly “bunker-busters”) is on the table.
No doubt about it, this is trouble. A nuclear Iran would represent a grievous threat to the region (and particularly Israel), and must be prevented by diplomatic means if at all possible. But, after the Iraq WMD debacle, this administration has become the boy who cried wolf, and — just as the US is facing perhaps its thorniest diplomatic issue yet, neither our European allies nor many US observers trust Dubya’s motives or credibility any more, to say nothing of his basic competence. (“Speaking of President Bush, [one] House member said, ‘The most worrisome thing is that this guy has a messianic vision.’.”) And, needless to say, if Dubya and the neocons screw this one up, the consequences for both the entire Middle East and the war on terror — as well as our own homeland security — could be nightmarish. “If we move against Iran, Hezbollah will not sit on the sidelines. Unless the Israelis take them out, they will mobilize against us…If we go, the southern half of Iraq will light up like a candle.“
Update: ““I’m announcing officially that Iran has now joined the countries that have nuclear technology.” The situation darkens with Iran’s successful (increased) enrichment of uranium. “Iran had previously enriched uranium to a level of about 2 percent, using a smaller cascade, and separately enriched uranium to about 15 percent during laser experiments in 2002. Bomb-grade uranium must be enriched to a level of well over 80 percent…Though it is technically possible, most nuclear experts agree it is unlikely Iran would be able to make bomb-grade uranium with the[ir current] 164-centrifuge cascade.” Still, Russia and Britain are decrying the advance, and Secretary Rice wants “strong steps” by the UN Security Council in reply.
Take the Sunnis Bowling.
“In the wake of Bosnia and Rwanda, the assumption is that ethnically divided countries can never function. But countless countries at risk of civil war have been able to avoid going over the cliff…So, how have divided countries kept the peace? Here are a few successful strategies.” With Iraq seemingly on the precipice of civil war, Princeton professor Gary Bass (who was one of my teaching fellows at Harvard back in the day) briefly summarizes possible ways to stem the sectarian violence in Slate.
Iraq, Year Four.
“If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is.” As the war in Iraq enters its fourth year (US casualities) and civil war appears increasingly likely on the ground, Dubya and Cheney trod out the same stale talking points we’ve been hearing since “Mission Accomplished” (while Rummy attempts variations on a theme.) Update: Slate‘s Fred Kaplan surveys the mistakes.
Iran runs from Dubya.
“‘It seems to me the United States is not studying the history of Iran very carefully,’ Pourostad said. ‘Whenever they came and supported an idea publicly, the public has done the opposite.‘” As Fred Kaplan pointed out several weeks ago (and as indicated by the results of the last Iranian election), many democratic activists in Iran believe that Dubya’s ham-handed approach to promoting reform is backfiring in a big way.
Murder by Numbers.
Well, this might explain the recent discrepancy in casualty numbers. Backed by a recent UN human rights report saying much the same thing, an anonymous Iraqi ministry official claims that a Shiite party representative “ordered that government hospitals and morgues catalogue deaths caused by bombings or clashes with insurgents, but not by execution-style shootings.”
And the War Came?
“Grisly attacks and other sectarian violence unleashed by last week’s bombing of a Shiite Muslim shrine have killed more than 1,300 Iraqis, making the past few days the deadliest of the war outside of major U.S. offensives, according to Baghdad’s main morgue.” While the Iraqi cabinet disputes the 1300 figure as “inaccurate and exaggerated,” the news from Baghdad is still tragic and horrifying: After the bombing of the Golden Mosque last week, Iraq appears to be in freefall, with 68 more casualties just today, and civil war looms. Dubya’s response so far: Civil war won’t happen, and, if it does, it’s y’all’s problem.
Dubai Deal Delayed, Dubya Dumbfounded.
“There are many, many problems that we face in maritime security — and they’re not the United Arab Emirates.” Dubaigate continues to have legs, with both parties in an uproar and the port takeover now on hold so Dubya can convince Congress it’s a good idea (or at the very least get his story straight.) Well, as Dan Froomkin noted, inasmuch as this story draws attention to the broader issues of outsourcing, port security, and questionable White House decisionmaking, I’m all for it. But, given all the shadiness this administration has been up to of late, I’m a bit surprised that this relatively innocuous UAE deal has blown up as it has. (I mean, when Dubya recently decided he’d eviscerate our constitutional system of checks and balances, the Senate just rolled over.) Well, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, I suppose.