As Hillary Clinton — still — spins away her debate performance of last week (You’d think she’d just let the story die of its own accord by this point — this doesn’t speak well for her campaign’s potential handling of GOP criticism in a general election, and they’re definitely watching carefully over there), the Democratic races in Iowa and New Hampshire start to tighten, with Clinton up three and ten on Obama in IA and NH respectively. (Edwards comes in third in both states at the moment.) And, in related news, a new USA Today poll further calls into question Clinton’s crossover appeal: “In a general election, the poll suggests that Clinton has the least potential for winning votes from Republicans — 84% say they definitely would not vote for her, compared with six in 10 for either Obama or Edwards. Independents show the least resistance to Obama and the most to Edwards.” (That being said, some tightening in the polls was inevitable as the finish line nears, and that same USA Today poll still has Hillary beating Rudy in a national contest, so there is a silver lining here for the Clinton camp.) Update: Slate‘s John Dickerson reports in from Iowa on the Clinton-Obama race: “‘Why isn’t he killing her?’ asked a colleague after Obama’s hour-long visit. It’s the persistent question for his campaign. He wows the crowds but lags in the polls everywhere but Iowa.“
Tag: New Hampshire
They’re bona fide!
Meanwhile, on the GOP side: The Republican field shores up its right-wing cred as Moral Majority co-founder Paul Weyrich endorses Mitt Romney, well-known evangelical crazy Pat Robertson backs Rudy Giuliani, and failed presidential candidate Sam Brownback, who I really thought would fill the conservative spoiler role now enjoyed by Mike Huckabee, instead decides to get behind John McCain. Looks like it’s still anybody’s race over there, even with NH polls currently breaking Romney’s way.
Hard Time for Tobin.
As a follow-up to a story last month, three GOP political operatives are found guilty of violating communications law for clogging NH phone banks in 2002. (Among them is James Tobin, the guy who called the White House 22 times during the misdeed, and who will now serve 10 months for his role in the scheme.) “[T]he case has drawn complaints even from Republicans. By covering Tobin’s legal fees, ‘the GOP appears to sanction and institutionalize corruption within the party,’ Craig Shirley, of Shirley & Banister Public Affairs, recently wrote in a commentary.”
Prank Call! Prank Call!
“You have somebody who’s committing a felony, and he’s calling [the White House] during the planning, the execution and when it’s falling apart.” The Dubya administration gets in even more legal trouble after it’s discovered that, while an illegal plan to block Democratic phone banks in New Hampshire during the 2002 gubernatorial race was being carried out, its instigator, Dubya campaign op James Tobin, called the White House political affairs office 22 times in 2 days. (Looka has more.) Of course, clogging phone banks isn’t the first political dirty trick New Hampshire has ever seen — let us take a moment to reflect on the Gore campaign’s disgusting anti-Bradley traffic jam in 2000 — but that doesn’t make Tobin’s — and possibly the White House’s — actions any less reprehensible…or criminal.
The Granite State Strikes Back.
Faced with the prospect of his state losing its disproportionate influence on presidential campaigns, New Hampshire Governor John Lynch (D) begins twisting the arms of possible presidential candidates in 2008, with Evan Bayh the first to cry uncle. “New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has assiduously avoided taking a position on the issue despite personal urgings by Lynch to do so. Former Virginia governor Mark Warner, the hot ‘anti-Hillary’ candidate these days, is similarly noncommittal.” Pushing back on New Hampshire’s entreaties are Bill Richardson (New Mexico) and John Edwards (North Carolina), for obvious reasons. Feingold is also uncommitted (as far as I know), although one would think that, as an independent-minded maverick, he’d be a prime candidate for an early Granite State boost. That is, provided John McCain doesn’t suck all the air out of the state, as he did in 2000 versus Bradley.
Breaking the Granite State Grip.
As discussed last November, the Dems’ Rules and Bylaws Committee votes to hold one or two more caucuses before the New Hampshire primary in 2008. “Most observers believe the additional states will come from the South and the West…South Carolina, Arkansas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Alabama and Mississippi are among the states under consideration.“
Evaporating Ethanol.
The deal’s not quite done, but it seems, at least on the Democratic side, that the Iowa-New Hampshire duopoly on early voting may soon be broken. Word is the Dems will be “scheduling nominating contests in two or possibly three states in the days between Iowa and New Hampshire.” This has been a long time coming, and it’s particularly good news for Southern and Western Dems. Still, between this and the Old Man falling in 2003, it’s been a tough couple of years for the Granite State.
And the rich get richer.
New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg hits an $850,000 payday in Wednesday’s Powerball lottery. Hey, wait a second…did Harriet Miers have anything to do with this?
Howard’s End?
So…New Hampshire has spoken, and John Kerry wins by 12 over fellow New Englander Howard Dean, Clark and Edwards tie for a distant third, and Lieberman falls to fifth. The game now shifts to the South and Midwest, including South Carolina.
Well, while it’s a bit off-putting to put this race in the fridge after only two states have spoken, I say it’s now definitely looking to be John Kerry’s year. That is, barring a strong showing by John Edwards on more favorable terrain, who has to win South Carolina convincingly next week to stay alive. As everyone’s known for months, Lieberman is clearly done, despite his ridiculous talk of a three-way tie for third in NH. (So much for the vote-swinging ability of the New Republic.) Wesley Clark may be able to pick up Oklahoma, but momentum counts for a lot, and he was fading fast all last week. So, barring something crazy happening, I’d say the general is also on his way out.
The Fighting 47.
In the midst of the battle for New Hampshire, a glimmer of great news. A new Newsweek poll has Kerry up 3 on Dubya in a head-to-head match-up. And the key stat isn’t Kerry, per se: All four major Dems poll well against the Prez (Clark down 1, Edwards down 3, Dean down 5.) No, what’s cause for cheer here is the breakdown: 47% of voters strongly oppose a second term for Bush (and 52% say they don’t want him back in general.) That’s compared to 37% of voters strongly in the Bush camp. With those kind of strong negatives, much of Dubya’s financial advantage is neutralized — all the money in the world isn’t going to change the minds of people who’ve already decided they hate you. And this means that, state-by-state electoral math notwithstanding, the Dems only have to sway 4% of the electorate between now and November, give or take a percentage point to account for more Florida-type shenanigans by the GOP.
Along those lines, the Republicans shift their attention to Kerry, while conservatives fret over their standard-bearer‘s right-wing cred. I’m sure y’all can get Pat Buchanan to run again…
Meanwhile, in NH news, the consistently insufferable Mickey Kaus points the way to Chrisishardcore, a young statistician who’s teased out daily movement from the three-day ARG polls (this is the information the talking heads have when they make their predictions.) At any rate, yesterday’s poll shows a bounce back for Dean, who looks to probably come in second by these numbers. Elsewhere, the Wyeth Wire, a SC political mail-list to which I subscribe, does the same thing for Carolina.