Tag: Pau Gasol

Fan-Tastic 2011.

Since it’s that particular Saturday morning in April again, time for this year’s NBA playoff picks. (Note: accuracy of picks may well be impacted by the return of the Knickerbockers after seven years of ignominy.) Here we go…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010]

The East

Chicago Bulls (1) v. Indiana Pacers (8): What a difference a year makes. This time in 2010, Cleveland was the Court of King James and the Eastern powerhouse everyone was watching, while Chicago was the lowly 8-seed that everyone expected would just be happy to be there. Now, Cleveland is fighting it out with Minnesota for lottery balls, and it’s Derrick Rose’s multifaceted Chicago Bulls with the targets on their back. As in the past several years, the Eastern Conference 8-seed is an iffy squad — Indiana went 37-45 and are coming in on a 2-game losing streak — so I don’t expect Chicago to be tested here. Chicago in 4.

Miami Heat (2) v. Philadelphia 76ers (7): This was looking like a return to the Knicks-Heat series of old before New York went on a late-season streak and the Celts faded down the stretch. Anyways, the Heatles (Wade, LeBron, and Bosh — does that make Mike Miller Ringo?) have been a combustible squad all season, and, after watching LeBron mentally check out of the Boston series last year, I have much less faith in his multi-ring playoff potential than I used to. Still, they were designed with the post-season in mind, and the Sixers are only slightly better than Indiana. Gonna have to go Miami in 5.

Boston Celtics (3) v. New York Knicks (6): Hey, look, it’s the Knickerbockers! Now, all the smart money has the Celtics in this match-up, and my head tells me that’s probably true. In fact, they’ll probably take the Knicks in five or six — New York is still a work in progress, and we’re really one more star and 2-3 more role players away from really contending. Still, after an ugly March, Amare and Melo seemed to be finding their groove in the last few weeks of the season, while Boston — a team I’d root for in most other situations — has looked haggard and ornery ever since they traded Kendrick Perkins away at the deadline. And, hey, it’s been seven years, so why not say New York in 7.

Orlando Magic (4) v. Atlanta Hawks (5): Like the Mavericks in the West, Orlando is a team built around a force of nature (Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard) that I’m starting to think is never going to put it together. That being said, they’re facing a team they swept last year, and one who has been struggling (10-17) since the All-Star break. Orlando in 5.

The West

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Memphis Grizzlies (8): Much credit to the Spurs — Their transition has been extraordinary. Even as Tim Duncan’s era of dominance fades, the Spurs have been consistent all season and even managed to win the West. I don’t see them having much trouble with the Grizzlies. San Antonio in 5.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. New Orleans Hornets (7): Ironically, this is the first season in a long time where I might have rooted for the Lakers. Should they manage to make it to the Finals versus Cleveland, sure, I’d root for Phil Jackson to get his twelfth ring. But, like Boston, they have been showing their age down the stretch, and Bynum being hurt — again — doesn’t help matters. They’ll beat Chris Paul and the Hornets, but I’m thinking they won’t make it to June this year. Los Angeles in 6.

Dallas Mavericks (3) v. Portland Trailblazers (6): As I said in the Orlando section, I have my doubts that they’re serious contenders anymore. Unfortunately for Dirk, who’s a consistently impressive and gutty player, I’m starting to think he’s going to end up like Barkley or Ewing, a star without a ring. Especially when they’re facing a young, hungry, and dangerous Trailblazers squad, the team nobody wanted in the first round. Portland in 6.

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) v. Denver Nuggets (5): With a legitimate second option in Russell Westbrook and a playoff veteran manning the paint in Kendrick Perkins, it seems about time for Kevin Durant’s OKC to make the leap. Still, after watching Gallinari, Felton, et al play for the first half of the season, I have a soft spot for “Knicks West.” Denver in 7.

The Rest

Chicago Bulls (1) v. Orlando Magic (5): One would think Orlando might have a slight advantage here because they’re a playoff-tested team. Unfortunately, they’ve failed most of those tests. Meanwhile, the Bulls enjoy the benefit of a great and hungry coach in longtime-assistant Tom Thibodeau, a superstar floor general in Rose, a dangerous set of second and third options (Boozer, Deng, Noah), and guys who know their roles all the way down the bench. (For example, Brian Scalabrine will happily wave a towel, Kurt Thomas will pay 10 minutes, flagrantly foul Howard, and scowl, etc. etc.) Chicago in 6.

Miami Heat (2) v. New York Knicks (6): See, this is what being a Homer gets you. Now I have the Knicks outperforming the first round only to play the hated Heat in the second. And damned if I’m going to pick Miami — particularly this Miami team, the most easily dislikable since the Mourning-Hardaway outfits of the late-90’s — to beat New York, even if, you know, that probably makes a lot more sense. New York in 7.

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Denver Nuggets (5): Like I said, I like this Denver team — but they’re gunners. If the shots aren’t falling, they are going to stink up the joint. And when you move deeper into the playoffs and the tension builds, those rims will start to clank more often than not. Plus, I have a feeling, even if the Spurs are built on speed attack these days, that Gregg Popovitch will figure out how to close Denver down with not much trouble. San Antonio in 5.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. Portland Trailblazers (6): WIth or without Bynum, I suspect Kobe has the killer instinct to put LA on his back and get them past the Blazers (or, at the very least, he’ll yell at Pau Gasol until he does it.) Still, LA may win this season, but Portland is going to tire them out, and that’s going to be a factor in the next round. Los Angeles in 6.

EAST FINALS: Chicago Bulls (1) v. New York Knicks (6): Ok, I think here’s where reality sets in. Even if New York makes it this far, they will have had to knock off two of the three main contenders from the East. Meanwhile, Chicago has had a pretty easy road of it — nobody’s really imagining Indiana or Orlando to go anywhere deep. Plus, let’s face it, the Knicks have a lot of exposed holes still…like Denver, they rely on offense and offense only. But wait ’til next year — Chris Paul will look great in the blue-and-orange. Chicago in 6.

WEST FINALS: San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Los Angeles Lakers (2): You again, I see — The two best teams of the last decade meet for yet another go-round in the Western Conference finals. And, this year, Tim Duncan has more fresh legs on his side than Kobe. San Antonio in 7.

FINALS: Chicago Bulls (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (1): Ok, they’re both one-seeds, but a lot of you have the Heat and/or Lakers here, right? Anyways, it’s hard to bet against Gregg Popovitch and Tim Duncan in the NBA Finals. But it’s also hard not to like this Bulls team, who are both well-rounded and deep. I’ll keep it real for the East and say Chicago in 7.

So, looking back on this, I actually find myself rooting for the Bulls and the Lakers at various points. Strange times we live in, strange times. Anyway, Game 1 is starting right about now, so let’s go to it! The NBA, it’s faaaan-tastic.

For All the Marbles.

Well, I definitely wouldn’t have picked these two teams. But, even amid a sea of (admittedly low-scoring) World Cup riches, tonight is a big night in sports: One game for the NBA championship. ABC, 9pm EST. (And, fwiw, I’m definitely rooting for the Celts. They’re the Eastern Conference representatives, and more importantly, they’re not the Lakers.)

Update: Aaaaaannd…Lakers win, 83-79. Sigh. Bring on the draft already…oh wait, that was last night. Sorry about the lack of updates here since — busy week.

Fan-Tastic 2009.

These are actually a weekend late now, and my knowledge of the league now that I’ve left New York (and thus haven’t been watching Knicks games) is at an all-time ebb. Then again, broadcasting uninformed opinions is pretty what much the Internet was created for, so, without further ado and as per tradition, some quick NBA playoff picks…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008]

The East

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Detroit Pistons (8): As per the last few years, I still don’t think King James’ supporting cast quite matches up to the moment. (I like Mo Williams, but he’s no Scottie Pippen, and “Big Z” — Zyldrunas Ilgauskas — is definitely no Dennis Rodman.) That being said, Lebron is pretty much playing to his amazing potential and then some, and it’s clear that — while he may still be Jordan circa ’89-90 at the moment — his dynasty is right around the corner. Conversely, the Pistons look old, tired, and broken. Particularly without Allan Iverson on hand, they would seem to be in the shoes of the mid-00’s Kings: a former title contender now obviously in eclipse. Cavaliers in Five.

Boston Celtics (2) v. Chicago Bulls (7): The Game 1 upset was a certifiable coming-out party for all-around player and Rookie of the Year PG Derrick Rose. (The facet of his game that most needs work: post-game interviewing.) But, let’s remember: The Bulls won Game 1 because Paul Pierce uncharacteristically missed a clutch free throw. With Kevin Garnett reportedly out for the playoffs, I think Boston is dead in the water this year — it’s just a matter of time (And, to be honest, that’s fine with me. They deserve some horrible mojo after swooping up Stephon Marbury as they did.) But they’re still a better team than Chicago and, remember, they had trouble with Atlanta early on last year too. Boston in Seven.

(By the way, was anyone else annoyed with the dubious and oft-repeated stat that Chicago hadn’t beaten Boston in a playoff game since 1948? Uh, well that may partly be because the Celtics were atrocious from the time Larry Bird’s back gave out until Michael Jordan retired. It’s not like the Bulls are the Bobcats, Wizards, or some other legitimately underdog franchise.)

Orlando Magic (3) v. Philadelphia 76ers (6): I’m fond of Superman (Dwight Howard), but, for all the hype surrounding Orlando mid-season, blowing an 18-point lead at home against the lowly Sixers is not something a real title contender would do. And, in the one (nationally-televised) Knicks game I have caught recently, the Magic looked terrible. But I’m not a particularly big fan of this Sixers crew either, so I’ll give ’em the benefit of the doubt and say Orlando in Seven.

Atlanta Hawks (4) v. Miami Heat (5): To be honest, I don’t know the first thing about this iteration of the Hawks: I hadn’t seen ’em play until yesterday, and the last news I heard about their franchise was when Josh Childress went to Europe. But they looked pretty dominant yesterday, and they’ve got a proven clutch performer, Mike Bibby, running the point. So, even though the refs love them some D-Wade, I’ll go with Atlanta in Six.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Utah Jazz (8): Always a tough call, for, as longtime readers well know, neither Kobe Bryant nor the Mormon church tend to be in my Fave 5. (And Carlos Boozer is his own case of bad mojo.) Still, the Lakers are deep, Kobe is an undeniable talent, and he’s got arguably the most underappreciated No. 2 in the league right now in Pau Gasol. I think, barring injury, this could very well be the Lakers’ year. In any case — sorry, Jerry Sloan — Deron Williams, Andre Kirilenko, & co. won’t stop ’em. Los Angeles in Four.

Denver Nuggets (2) v. New Orleans Hornets (7): This is one of those series where all my old intel isn’t of much use. Chris Paul and the Hornets looked deadly last post-season — exactly the type of team you didn’t want to run into early on. But I haven’t seen them play this year and don’t know if they’ve lost a step or if they’ve found a way to score when Chris Paul gets triple-teamed. Meanwhile, on paper Chauncey Billups running the Nuggets seems like a huge boon for them — he’s had experience managing hotheads (Kenyon Martin, meet Rasheed Wallace) and can successfully distribute shots among a bunch of players who all need the ball. But is he really enough to stop a George Karl team from choking early on? Given that they’re already one up, I’ll say Denver in Six.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Dallas Mavericks (6): With Ginobli out, the aging, injured Spurs got a spot of luck when they matched up against another fading West Coast giant, the Mavericks. I doubt the Spurs are good and/or healthy enough to get to the Conference Finals this year, but I don’t have much confidence in Dallas either. San Antonio in Seven.

Portland Trailblazers (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): I’ve gotten the impression from various sources that Portland is a much better team than they displayed in Game 1. And they’ve certainly got an impressive core of young talent in Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc. (I kinda wish Channing Frye had continued to develop, but oh well.) Still, just by the law of averages, I think Yao et al are due to break out of the first round. (And there’s a certain irony that they’d finally get to do it after perennial loser T-Mac sorta checked out on them.) Houston in Seven.

[Hmm. With one exception, I picked the top seed every time again. Way to go out on a limb.]

The Rest

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Atlanta Hawks (4): LeBron and the Cavs have pretty much been playing a higher-level of basketball than the rest of the East this year, particularly at home. And I think King James is too focused this year to screw things up in the second round. Cleveland in Five.

Boston Celtics (2) v. Orlando Magic (3): Like the Spurs-Mavs, I don’t have a lot of faith in either of these teams at the moment. But, while I had Boston winning this at first, I think I’m going to switch to the Magic. Perhaps the first round will work out the hiccups for Stan Van Gundy’s team, and — without Garnett on Boston — I’ll go with youth and energy over age and guile. Orlando in Seven.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Houston Rockets (5): I’m going to be rooting quite hard for Yao Ming and the Rockets here. But, as with the Cavs in the East, the Lakers are just operating at a different level right now. Los Angeles in Six.

Denver Nuggets (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): Unless they psychologically implode, and there’s always a chance of it with this combustible squad, I have to think Denver has enough weapons to take care of injury-ridden San Antonio. Denver in Five.

EAST FINALS: Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Orlando Magic (3): Third verse, same as the second and first. The Cavs are playing better ball that most everyone in the East at the moment, and James will not be denied. Cleveland in Five.

WEST FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (2): With Phoenix, Dallas, and San Antonio on the way down, Denver now looks to be one of the premier contenders in the West. But, unless Carmelo has the type of break-out, monster playoff performance that many think he’s capable of but that we’ve yet to see, I don’t see this being all that close. Los Angeles in Five.

FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (1): If you read what’s come before, you may have noticed that I deemed this the Lakers year a few paragraphs ago. And that’s probably true — they’re hungry, they’re experienced, and I don’t see how Cleveland’s going to manage once Phil Jackson uncorks his own version of the Jordan rules on LeBron. But, I’ve gotten pretty far in life rooting against the Lake Show…so, no reason to stop now. Cleveland in Seven.

So, there you have it — Cleveland rocks. And, if they’re this good now, just wait until James get some legitimate help…I just hope it all happens on the Knickerbockers’ watch.

Fan-Tastic 2008.

Yep, it’s playoff time again. As a lowly Knicks fan, I’m not sure I’m qualified to write up my picks this year. The only games I saw this season involved New York, and thus I haven’t watched any of these squads play against a real defense. And I haven’t seen the Chris Paul Hornets or the Pau Gasol Lakers play at all this season, among other teams. Still, tradition is tradition, so…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007]

The East

Boston Celtics (1) v. Atlanta Hawks (8): I can’t say I’m all that pro-Celtics — In fact, I generally find Boston homers, with a few exceptions, to be some of the more aggravating fans around. Still, I’ve always had soft spots for KG, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell. (I could take or leave Paul Pierce: I find him way too passive, tending to disappear in big games for quarters at a time.) And these Celtics are (sorry, Spree) not only the best team Garnett’s ever played on, but the best team the East has seen in awhile. They’re going to be tested at some point before the Finals, but it won’t be lowly Atlanta that push them. KG’s usual intensity alone will ensure no early slip-up, and Boston should scatter Bibby and the Hawks fairly readily. Boston in four.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Philadelphia 76ers (7): A wily and versatile squad stocked with savvy veterans and playoff experience, Detroit is easily the scariest team standing between Boston and the Finals. But, they do have a tendency to coast…one hopes they’ve learned something from their playoff flameout against LeBron last year. Either way, I don’t see Andre Iguodala and the Sixers mounting much of a threat to Motown. Detroit in Five.

Orlando Magic (3) v. Toronto Raptors (6): I haven’t looked at the schedule yet, but I get the sense this and the Utah series are going to be the ones relegated to Wednesday nights on NBA TV. Regardless, Dwight Howard v. Chris Bosh should be fun to watch…and I feel pretty confident Howard has the edge. Orlando in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): These two teams seem to meet every year in the playoffs of late. Unlike 2007, however, the Wizards are healthy, with both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler ready to play. That being said, and while the Cavs are still basically a bunch of journeyman scrubs, Cleveland has King James, who singlehandedly powered a similarly lousy Cavs squad to the Finals last year. This’ll be a hard-fought contest, but my money’s on LeBron (particularly given that Cleveland has beaten DC twice in a row — he’s in their heads.) Cleveland in Seven.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (8): As an inveterate and well-established Kobe hater of long standing, I’m still irritated with Memphis bailing out LA with that grotesquely lopsided Gasol trade. So, I’d like nothing more to see AI and ‘Melo rise to the occasion and knock the Lakers out early. But, against a team as good as Los Angeles and a player with as much killer instinct as Kobe, I can’t in good conscience back a George Karl-coached team. Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Dallas Mavericks (7): As I said above, I have yet to see the Hornets in action, and there’s not a lot of playoff experience on this team. And, now that Dallas has Jason Kidd, it’s hard to see the Mavs folding as badly as they did last season against Golden State. But I still don’t have a lot of confidence in Dallas, and Coach Avery Johnson seems like he’s a net negative when the pressure’s on — at key moments, he just seems to wind up guys like Nowitzki further, instead of calming them down and getting them to play better. And, if Paul is as good and quick as everyone says he is, I’m not sure how Kidd is going to guard him. So, New Orleans in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Phoenix Suns (6): This should be fun. One would think I would know not to bet against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. Still, every dynasty ends at some time or another, and, particularly given their record over the back half of the season, I just have a feeling the Spurs have entered into that long twilight. (Plus, Big Shot Rob ain’t getting any younger, and after last year’s incident, the Suns have karma on their side.) Players like Barbosa will have to step up, and Shaq will have to find some of that playoff juvenation to help keep Duncan locked down and allow Stoudamire to thrive. But, I’m thinking Nash & co. weather a few big games from Ginobli/Parker and knock out the reigning champs in the first round. Phoenix in Seven.

Utah Jazz (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): I know Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are apparently the real deal, but I still don’t have much faith in this incarnation of the Jazz. That being said, despite their 21-game winning streak without Yao, T-Mac has had, uh, some trouble winning a playoff series. Until he finally breaks that curse, I guess I have to go with those Salt Lake City bluesmen. Utah in Six.

The Rest

Boston Celtics (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): King James is amazing, but his retinue (Ben Wallace, Wally World) is still pretty pedestrian. And I just don’t see the Celts getting caught as flat-footed by a monster LeBron game as Detroit did last year. Plus, Boston has too many options, even if they don’t always know which one to go to in the fourth. But don’t fret, LeBron, you’ll be a Knickerbocker soon enough. Boston in Five.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Orlando Magic (3): Unless Detroit has another one of their “senior moments,” they should dispatch Orlando rather quickly. And they’ll need to, in order to be at all competitive in the Eastern Conference Finals. Detroit in Five.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Utah Jazz (4): Having to choose between Kobe and the Jazz is like choosing between the flu and measles. But I’ll go with LA, partly due to home court, partly due to Kobe no doubt getting a Jordan-like shield from the refs (who, I’m sure, have been apprised of the value of a Lakers-Celtics throwback final to the NBA.) Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Phoenix Suns (6): Again, N’Orleans is an X-factor to me. But, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the more prior experience helps. (As does D, of course, but it’s not like the Suns are a defensive powerhouse.) So I’ll go with Nash, Shaq et al. Phoenix in Five.

EAST FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Detroit Pistons (2): Now, this’ll be a great series. We have yet to see how Boston would handle having their backs to the wall, and given that [a] KG can sometimes get ratcheted up too tight and [b] Coach Doc Rivers is more than a little suspect in the strategy department, an early Detroit win could really scramble this one. But, even if he’s older than the hills, Sam Cassell is a legitimate fourth-quarter assassin, and I’m betting he (like Robert Horry and Derek Fisher in years before him) puts Boston over the top in a key game here. Boston in Six.

WEST FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): At long last, the main event: Shaq vs. Kobe for a post-Laker ring. Shaq’s only a (very big) cog in the Suns engine now, of course, but I’m sure he’ll find it sweet to have Phoenix knock off LA regardless. Phoenix in Seven.

FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): It won’t be the Celtics-Lakers series Commissioner Stern spends his nights praying for, but this should be a solid Finals regardless. The main difference between these two exciting squads is that Boston can totally lock teams down on defense. Defense wins championships, and it will here as well. So, congrats, Celts fans — And don’t forget to thank Kevin McHale for letting Minnesota take a gimongous dive! 2007-08 has been a banner year for Boston…well, except for that whole matter of 18-1…

1-0. (1-2.)

Up 19 with 9 minutes to go against a Memphis team playing without Pau Gasol, the Knicks needed all of three overtimes last night to eke out a win 118-117. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006-2007 New York Knickerbockers. Ah well, at least we’re over .500 for the first time since January 2005 (the Wilkins era), and we definitely would’ve lost this game last year. David Lee, Q-Rich, and even Eddy Curry looked good; Francis, Frye, and Crawford less so. Update: Sigh…Back to reality. That didn’t last long.

Fan-tastic 2006.

If it’s late April, it must be time for the NBA playoffs. And, while the Knicks’ sheer terribleness made it especially hard for me to evaluate the rest of the league this year (since all the halfway-decent teams generally just ran right over ’em), a tradition is a tradition. [2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005] So, without further ado:

The East

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Milwaukee Bucks (8): Ok, they didn’t crack 70 wins — Still, with four All-Stars on hand (Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince), championship experience, the best team mentality in pro basketball right now, and an unsatisfied hunger after the Game 7 Finals loss last year, this Pistons squad has the look of a Team of Destiny. I actually watched Milwaukee completely dismantle the Knickerbockers from near-courtside at the Garden last Friday (Thanks, Gill and Ethan), and they definitely have some weapons — Michael Redd from behind the arc, TJ Ford in the open floor. Still, they’re overmatched against Detroit. Pistons in 4.

Miami Heat (2) v. Chicago Bulls (7): Scott Skiles seems to be a great coach, and Chicago is an exciting young team. Plus, they’re bound to get even better next year, since (grumble, grumble) they’re getting a Top-5 pick from the Knicks. But the Heat is home to two superheroes in Superman and Flash (who get along better these days than do Supes and Batman [via DYFL]), and Alonzo Mourning (albeit hurt) is no slouch either. Provided the Glove doesn’t revert to his terrible-LA days, and ‘Toine or White Chocolate don’t shoot ’em out of it, the Heat should get through the first round with little trouble. Heat in Five.

New Jersey Nets (3) v. Indiana Pacers (6): I still haven’t forgiven Vince Carter for his folding on Toronto a few years back — Still with he and Richard Jefferson on the wings and the inimitable Jason Kidd manning the point, New Jersey look to be a frightening playoff team, and I doubt they’ll have much trouble moving past Indiana, a squad who, post-Reggie and post-Artest, seems as if their time has passed. (That being said, I haven’t seen all that much of the Peja Pacers.) Nets in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): Will the District’s ballers manage to topple King James,or will LeBron make the Wiz look like the Washington Generals? Gilbert Arenas‘ big-game tendencies notwithstanding, I tend to favor the Cavs here. LeBron has already shown he can pretty much do it all, at least during the regular season. And while he alone probably isn’t enough (yet) to get this somewhat second-rate squad past the second round, I expect he should be able to carry Cleveland past the lowly Wiz. Cavs in 7.

The West

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Sacramento Kings (8): Like Indiana, their partner in the Peja-Artest trade, the Kings feel like a team whose time has come and gone. Sure, Mike Bibby is a playoff performer, but the Kings just don’t have enough weapons to get past the returning champions, even with Duncan and Ginobli slightly gimpy these days. Spurs in Five.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7): The fast-break-happy Phoenix Suns are easily the most watchable team in the NBA, but let’s face it — I’m really just looking forward to rooting against Kobe. Is there a pro athlete less likable this side of Barry Bonds? Particularly given that Phoenix tends not to play D (and are missing their strongest defender with Kurt Thomas out), Kobe will undoubtedly find a way –remorseless gunning, perhaps? — to score his points. Still, I expect even the Amare-less Suns can carry the day against this iteration of the Lake Show. (Yes, LA beat Phoenix by 20 last week, but Steve Nash sat out that game.) Suns in Six.

Denver Nuggets (3) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Here’s where the West gets screwy. Not only are the Clippers — the Clips! — actually in the NBA playoffs, but they also have home court over the higher-seeded Denver Nuggets. This one’s really a toss-up. On one hand, Denver has proven playoff performers in K-Mart and Marcus Camby and the NBA’s best clutch shooter in Carmelo Anthony. On the other, the Clippers have Sam Cassell at the point, who — like Robert Horry and Nick Van Exel — is one of those take-no-prisoners fourth-quarter guys who can pretty much singlehandedly will a team to victory. And all that being said, it may ultimately come down to who’s a bigger playoff choke artist — Nuggets coach George Karl or the entire Clipper franchise. My money’s on Karl. Clippers in Seven.

Dallas Mavericks (4) v. Memphis Grizzlies (5): The other strange seeding in the West — by records alone Dallas should be the #2 seed — the Mavs probably won’t be challenged very much by Memphis, although Nowitzki versus Gasol should be a fun matchup. Dallas still doesn’t buckle down on D, but they should have enough O to tame the Grizzlies. San Antonio, however, is another story… Dallas in Five.

The Rest

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): The bottom five teams in the Eastern bracket can’t really hold a candle to New Jersey, Miami, and especially Detroit, and it’ll show in this series. I expect a variation on Detroit’s old Jordan Rules will more than suffice in keeping Lebron in check. Pistons in Four.

Miami Heat (2) v. New Jersey Nets (3): This should be a fascinating series. Still, if Shaq is close to playoff form, I think Miami should pull through…While Flash should be able to run with Jefferson and Carter, the Nets don’t really have anyone who can match up with the big fella in the paint. Heat in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Dallas Mavericks (2): The Western Finals may seem like they’re coming early this year…still, we’ve been here before. If it’s San Antonio’s defense versus the Mav’s offense, advantage San Antonio. Spurs in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Sorry, Clips fans. You got to the second round for the first time since 1976. But, even with Sam Cassell, that’s all you get. Suns in Six.

EAST FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Miami Heat (2): As with the second round, if Shaq’s feeling it and the Heat start clicking, Detroit could be in serious trouble. But all-in-all, I’d say the Pistons are too deep, too experienced, and too hungry. Pistons in Seven.

WEST FINALS: San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): If Amare and Kurt were healthy, this could be a contentious series…but I just can’t really see Phoenix knocking off San Antonio without better interior defense. Spurs in Six.

FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (1): Wow, two #1 seeds — looks like I’m going out on a limb again. At any rate, this match-up has been in the cards ever since last season’s seven-game Finals, in which the home team won every game. And given that this year Detroit has home-court advantage and Duncan’s playing through serious pain…well, you do the math. Detroit in Six.

I Love this Game 2004.

So it’s that time of year again, the NBA playoffs…which it means it’s time to post my consistently wrong postseason predictions. [2000/2001/2002/2003] I generally do ok in the East, but I’ve had Sacramento in the Finals three years running and I think I’ve finally soured on them (which is probably good news for Kings fans). At any rate…

THE EAST

Indiana Pacers (1) v. Boston Celtics (8): A rematch of one of last year’s first-round surprises, this series will be a rout. The Pacers are a better team this year and they now have a real coach in Rick Carlisle. (Thankfully for the Knicks, Isiah is a much better front office guy than he is a game-time decision-maker.) Conversely, the Celtics are much worse — They’ve lost all of their key role players (Battie, Kenny A, etc.) and picked up the only guy in the league with worse shot selection than ‘Toine, Ricky Davis. Unless Boston is on fire from behind the arc (like they were last year), this one’ll be ugly. Pacers in Five.

New Jersey Nets (2) v. New York Knicks (7): Ok, I’m picking the Knicks here ’cause my heart tells me to. I know they got run off the floor two weeks ago by a Nets team that didn’t have Kidd and K-Mart. I know that Allan Houston is sidelined and that the Knicks O can’t compete with New Jersey’s fast break onslaught. And I know the Nets are basically just a better team. I will say this, though — there’ll be at least one game in this series where Marbury totally outplays Jason Kidd. So, like I said, New York in Seven.

Detroit Pistons (3) v. Milwaukee Bucks (6): With Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace manning the paint, Detroit are the defensive Beasts of the East. And with TJ Ford injured and Keith Van Horn ever suspect, this one’ll be a walk for the Pistons. The only way to beat a D-structured team like Detroit is sheer offensive firepower, and the Bucks don’t have it, unless Van Horn puts up career numbers. Detroit in Six.

Miami Heat (4) v. New Orleans Hornets (5): Miami’s been playing amazing ball since the All-Star Break. N’awlins has been sucking it up. And, in playoff situations, it takes something special for me to bet against one of the Van Gundy boys. Miami in Seven.

THE WEST

Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Denver Nuggets (8): KG, Cassell, Spree…I’m loving this Minnesota squad. Garnett has a tendency to be too selfless with the ball in pressure-cooker playoff situations, but Cassell and Latrell should right the ship, particularly against Carmelo, Camby, & Co. Minnesota, welcome to the second round. Minnesota in Six.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. Houston Rockets (7): I’d love to see Jeff Van Gundy’s Rockets systematically dismantle the top-heavy, prima donna Lakers. I’d love to see Yao outplay Shaq and Stevie Franchise go nuts in this series. I’d love to see Kobe the inveterate ballhog shoot them out of the series. I’d love to see Gary Payton get sick of this outfit and move to another contender. But, unfortunately, none of this is going to happen. Lakers in Six.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Memphis Grizzlies (6): The Memphis Grizzlies? I’ve only seen Hubie Brown’s boys play once or twice, and they’ve never looked as dominant as the Spurs can at times. And, while the Grizz are 3-1 on San Antonio, I have to give the edge to my second least favorite contender. Unless Gasol comes up big, it’ll be the Duncan & Ginobli show. Spurs in Five.

Sacramento Kings (4) v. Dallas Mavericks (5): Hard to believe this match-up is coming in the first round. The Kings have been playing pretty badly lately, but then again, so has Dallas. I don’t think the Mavs would’ve won this series last year without the injury to C-Webb, so I’ll go Sacramento. Still, which Kings team will show up? If they’re clicking, they could win in five…but more likely it’ll be Sacramento in Seven.

THE REST

Indiana Pacers (1) v. Miami Heat (4): Other than the Knicks, which I admit was a goofy pick, I didn’t take any upsets in the First Round. And it won’t happen here…Indiana is a team on a mission, and they’ll at least make it to the Eastern Finals. Indiana in Six.

New York Knicks (7) v. Detroit Pistons (3): Ok, so we’re at a crossroads here. Do I venture into Bracket fantasyland and have the Knicks going all the way? Or do I admit my first pick was suspect and choose Detroit? I’m with the people who think the Pistons, with their plodding O and tight D, would’ve been a better match-up for New York in the first round than New Jersey, who just kill you with offensive numbers. Still, if the Knicks get this far without Allan Houston, they’ve overachieved. Detroit in Seven.

Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Sacramento Kings (4): These are the two teams I wanted to see in the Western Finals. Unfortunately, due to the Kings freefall, it has to happen now. The Kings have more playoff experience, but the T-Wolves have been playing much better ball. And I want to see Spree in the Finals again. Minnesota in Seven.

Los Angeles Lakers (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): Boo hiss. I’m sick to death of both of these teams. But, since the Spurs seem to have the Lakers’ number of late, I’ll go with San Antonio. Spurs in Six.

EAST FINALS: Indiana Pacers (1) v. Detroit Pistons (3): It’s the match-up everyone in the East has been waiting for, and I would’ve picked Indiana until watching ’em go head-to-head two weeks ago. Now, I’ll say ‘Sheed makes the difference and it’s Detroit in Seven.

WEST FINALS: Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): The Spurs definitely have more experience and the big game edge. But they’re lousy free-throw shooters, and the T-Wolves backcourt are savvy veterans. Oh, why not? Minnesota in Seven.

FINALS: Minnesota Timberwolves (1) v. Detroit Pistons (3): Detroit finally confronts a team who can score more points than they can possibly stop. The only Eastern squad who can legitimately run against the Best of the West is Indiana, and that’s on a good day. KG, you’re the MVP…enjoy the ring. Minnesota in Six.

So there you have it. Of course, I’ll be delirious if the Knicks win, but I’d be very happy to see Minnesota, Sacramento, or any Eastern team take the championship too. The point is, anyone but the Lakers or Spurs. Please?