Tag: Polling

Million Vote Baby (Redux).

Articles worth reading on GOP involvement in the continuing Schiavo fiasco:

Slate’s Dahlia Lithwick: “This morning’s decision by Congress and President Bush — to authorize new federal legislation that will obliterate years of state court litigation, and justify re-inserting a feeding tube into Terri Schiavo, based on new and illusory federal constitutional claims — is not about law. It is congressional activism, plain and simple; legislative overreaching and hubris taken to absurd extremes.”

Salon‘s Eric Boehlert: “The Schiavo episode highlights not only how far to the right the GOP-controlled Congress has lunged — a 2003 Fox News poll found just 2 percent of Americans think the government should decide this type of right-to-die issue — but also how paralyzed the mainstream press has become in pointing out the obvious: that the GOP leadership often operates well outside the mainstream of America. The press’s timidity is important because publicizing the poll results might extend the debate from one that focuses exclusively on a complicated moral and ethical dilemma to one that also examines just how far a radical and powerful group of religious conservatives are willing to go to push their political beliefs on the public.“

Maybe just happy.

So, according to a CNN poll today, 51% of the country are optimistic about the election results (surprise, surprise), and 57% of the country “expect Bush to unite the nation during his second term.” You think? Well, as Albert Einstein aptly noted, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

2:15pm, 4:15pm, and beyond.

[Scroll down this post for exit poll updates.] The 2pm exit polls should be out now…I’ll post ’em as soon as I find ’em (or when Jack Shafer of Slate divulges them.) Right now, Drudge is leading with the following: “KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS. Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE. National Election Pool — representing six major news organizations — shows Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio.” Sounds like music to my ears, but what’s this talk of striking distance? Drudge makes it sound as if Kerry was expected to lose. Update: Ok, here they are, courtesy of dKos. Apparently, they ratio was skewed 59-41 women to men, for what it’s worth:

Arizona: Bush 55, Kerry 45
Colorado: Bush 51, Kerry 48
Florida: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Iowa: Tied at 49
Louisiana: Bush 57, Kerry 42
Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 47
Minnesota: Kerry 58, Bush 40
New Hampshire: Kerry 57, Bush 41
New Mexico: Kerry 50, Bush 48
Ohio: Kerry 52, Bush 48
Pennsylvania: Kerry 60, Bush 40
Wisconsin: Kerry 52, Bush 43

So, as of right now, Kerry’s up in all three prongs of the trifecta (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida), and doing well in Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Iowa’s tied, and Dubya’s got Arizona and Louisiana locked up with Colorado in play. Hey, it’s early yet, but so far, so good. Let’s get those 4pm numbers!

Update 2: More from Drudge on the Senate Races: “Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4…” Thune (SD, v. Daschle), Burr (NC, v. Bowles), Bunning (KY, v. Mongiardo), Coburn (OK, v. Carson ), and Demint (SC, v. Tenenbaum) are GOP. Castor (FL, v. Martinez) and Salazar (CO, v. Coors) are Dems.

Update 3: Slate‘s Shafer has somewhat different morning numbers. His (that differ) are below. New states in bold:

Colorado: Bush 56, Kerry 43
Florida: Kerry 50, Bush 49
Nevada: Bush 50, Kerry 48
North Carolina: Bush 51, Kerry 49
Ohio: Kerry 50, Bush 49
Pennsylvania: Kerry 54, Bush 45
Wisconsin: Kerry 51, Bush 46

So, I don’t know what’s going on over there in Edwards Country, but otherwise, these are better numbers for Bush…he’s pulling away in Colorado and closing the gap in the Trifecta and Wisconsin. Phew…and more numbers in 15-30 minutes…if I can find them!

Update 4: Some good news on Florida, via MyDD: Hispanics in Florida are voting 53-46 for Bush (The Cuban breakdown is 68-32). This is significantly better for Kerry than the 2000 numbers: 65-35 and 83-17 for Dubya respectively.

Update 5: A friend of mine in the program alerted me to Wonkette’s numbers, which are also slightly different…I don’t know if these are the 4pm numbers or not, so I’ll just go ahead and post them, new states in bold. Update 6: These are confirmed as the 4pm numbers:

Arkansas: Bush 54, Kerry 45
Colorado: Bush 50, Kerry 49

Florida: Kerry 52, Bush 48
Iowa: Kerry 50, Bush 48 (This was a tie earlier.)
Maine: Kerry 55, Bush 44
Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Minnesota: Kerry 57, Bush 42
Ohio: Kerry 52, Bush 47
New Hampshire Kerry 58, Bush 41
New Mexico: Tied at 49 (Kerry was up before)
Nevada: Bush 49, Kerry 48
North Carolina: Bush 53, Kerry 47
Pennsylvania: Kerry 58, Bush 42
Wisconsin: Kerry 53, Bush 47

Update 7: Late numbers via Wonkette:

Colorado: Bush 50, Kerry 48
Florida: Kerry 51, Bush 49

Iowa: Kerry 50 Bush 49

Michigan: Kerry 51 Bush 47

Minnesota: Kerry 54, Bush 44

Nevada: Tied (Bush up at 4pm)
New Hampshire: Kerry 53, Bush 45

New Jersey: Kerry 54, Bush 44

New Mexico Kerry 50, Bush 48

Ohio Kerry 51, Bush 49

Pennsylvania: Kerry 53, Bush 46

Wisconsin: Kerry 51, Bush 48

Update 8: Ok, one last batch from dKos, and then I’m off to the local grad student watering hole to watch the real numbers come in. All in all, it’s looking pretty good for Kerry — he’s still leading in the Trifecta, the Michigan-Wisconsin axis, and New Mexico. But let’s keep our fingers crossed that there isn’t a Diebold surprise in the works. Here they are — I’ll see y’all on the flip-side:

Arkansas: Bush 53, Kerry 47
Arizona: Bush 55, Kerry 45
Iowa: Tied at 49 (Kerry was up a point earlier)
Louisiana: Bush 56, Kerry 43
North Carolina: Bush 52, Kerry 48
Missouri: Bush 54, Kerry 46
New Mexico: Kerry 50, Bush 49
Wisconsin: Kerry 52, Bush 47

Seven Days…

until the American people crawl out of the television set and kick this godawful administration to the curb. I know Dubya is up ever so slightly in the polls, but ties generally go to the challenger, and, at this point I still feel pretty confident that Kerry is going to win next Tuesday. (Then again, I’ve felt that way since the primaries ended, which probably has more to do with my inability to conceive of this nation actually choosing Dubya than anything else.) And, with Big Bill back in the game to help close the deal in swing states (something Gore should have considered more seriously in 2000), I think we’re good to go. Hope is on the way, y’all.

The Kids are Alright.

In a Nickelodeon online poll, nearly 400,000 American children pick Kerry over Dubya 57%-43%. “Nickelodeon has held a “Kids’ Vote” every election year since 1988, and kids have correctly predicted the winner of the general elections for the last four U.S. presidential campaigns.”

Kerry by Decision?

Well, Dubya’s still up slightly in the polls right now, but Republican pollster Frank Luntz has nevertheless sounded the warning bells for the GOP. “Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be ‘undecided’ are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit.“

The Voice of Reason.

Well, well, look who’s back. Kerry closes the gap over the weekend, setting the stage for this week’s debate double (Dubya?) dip (beginning tomorrow with Edwards v. Cheney.) Maybe now Dubya is finally beginning to realize: going mano-a-mano with Kerry is hard work.

Red Quadrants, Blue Quadrants.

“‘A good war is based on honor, not deception,” says K’tok (Earth name: Clyde Lewis), a 40-year-old Klingon from Lair Hill.’” Finally, some good news on the political front…Kerry is winning handily among Portland-area Klingons. Hopefully, they can offset Dubya’s considerable pull with the Ferengi in and around Salem.(By way of Usr/Bin/Girl.)

The Bush B.S. Bounce.

Are you sitting down? Time Magazine is reporting that Dubya’s now up 11 on Kerry, 52%-41%. Phew, that’s ugly…but we are post-convention now, and, various October surprises notwithstanding, I really can’t see how Dubya goes anywhere but down. Plus, we already know both Kerry and Edwards are solid closers. Still, the GOP and their corporate cronies have gotten away with misrepresenting John Kerry for far too long. For the sake of our republic, it’s time to push these lying bastards back. Update: A new Newsweek poll shows basically the same spread. Grr.