The good news: The Dems are up big on Bush (Kerry by 12, Edwards by 10). The bad news: A Zogby poll suggests there’s been no movement in the red state/blue state dichotomy quite yet. Hmm…this Zogby poll would be more interesting if it gave state-by-state numbers.
Tag: Polling
The Bin Laden Bounce?
Unfortunately, I missed Dubya’s flailing about on Russert Sunday morning, so I can’t really venture an opinion about how that went. (The rightniks seem dour about it.) But Salon has put up an interesting presidential popularity chart, which shows that Dubya’s approval rating has only spiked thrice: 9/11, the Iraq War, and Saddam’s capture. Makes you wonder if Karl Rove is on the phone with Pakistan this very moment.
The Fighting 47.
In the midst of the battle for New Hampshire, a glimmer of great news. A new Newsweek poll has Kerry up 3 on Dubya in a head-to-head match-up. And the key stat isn’t Kerry, per se: All four major Dems poll well against the Prez (Clark down 1, Edwards down 3, Dean down 5.) No, what’s cause for cheer here is the breakdown: 47% of voters strongly oppose a second term for Bush (and 52% say they don’t want him back in general.) That’s compared to 37% of voters strongly in the Bush camp. With those kind of strong negatives, much of Dubya’s financial advantage is neutralized — all the money in the world isn’t going to change the minds of people who’ve already decided they hate you. And this means that, state-by-state electoral math notwithstanding, the Dems only have to sway 4% of the electorate between now and November, give or take a percentage point to account for more Florida-type shenanigans by the GOP.
Along those lines, the Republicans shift their attention to Kerry, while conservatives fret over their standard-bearer‘s right-wing cred. I’m sure y’all can get Pat Buchanan to run again…
Meanwhile, in NH news, the consistently insufferable Mickey Kaus points the way to Chrisishardcore, a young statistician who’s teased out daily movement from the three-day ARG polls (this is the information the talking heads have when they make their predictions.) At any rate, yesterday’s poll shows a bounce back for Dean, who looks to probably come in second by these numbers. Elsewhere, the Wyeth Wire, a SC political mail-list to which I subscribe, does the same thing for Carolina.
Dead Heat in Des Moines.
Just when you think it’s over, Iowa gets crazy, with no less than four candidates — Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards — all in a statistical dead heat. Hmmm. While I’m still hoping Dean can nip a protracted primary fight in the bud right here (particularly given the huge GOP bankroll), I’m also glad to see John Edwards entering the top tier of candidates. At any rate, it looks like it’ll all come down to get-out-the-vote on the big day, which should help Dean, who’s got the fervor, and Gephardt, who’s got the unions and a sixteen-year-old organization.
Red and Swollen?
The NY Times surveys the demographic and electoral changes to the red state/blue state map going into 2004, and apparently Dubya states have picked up 7 electoral votes since the last go-around. Well, unless you’re going to presume that all the people that have moved to the red zone in the past four years vote Republican, I’m not sure this tells us all that much.
Of Soccer Moms and Nascar Dads,
Via Webgoddess, Mother Jones wonders why blue-collar Nascar Dads continue to stand with Dubya. (I think “Nascar Dad,” by the way, is a much better formulation of this demographic than confederate flag-thumping truck drivers.)
A House Divided?
In a series of state-of-the-election polls, the Washington Post finds the Dems split on tactics and the nation split on Dubya. Only one year to go until the big show, folks.
Goldwater Country Drops Dubya.
In another dismal poll for the Bushies, only a third of Arizonans want to keep Dubya in 2004. (Bush won the state by 6 in 2000.) Would the land of McCain go instead for a Clark or Dean?
Between Iraq and a Hard Place.
Facing the lowest numbers of his presidency and a increasingly troubling lack of WMD, Dubya fails to garner any new international support for the reconstruction of Iraq. And what did he expect, after waltzing into the UN and insulting the intelligence of the world? Amateur hour continues at our nation’s peril.
Chinks in the Armor.
In the newest set of 2004 preview polls, Dubya is tied with a number of Dems, including Clark, Kerry, and Lieberman (Dean and Gephardt run slightly behind.) For his part, Bush say he’s not listening to the primary furor, yet that’s not stopping the White House from sweating today’s UN address, or GOP flaks from decrying the Dems’ “political hate speech.” Hate speech? Heh. Perhaps Gillespie should be referred to a little matter called impeachment…it was in the papers a few years back. Also in Election 2004 news, be sure to check out Value Judgment, a site I found in the referrer logs a few weeks ago. It’s very pro-Dean, but nevertheless does a superlative job in keeping up with Dem primary news.