Blue England Patriots.

“Talking about the national political outlook, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said, ‘A very heavy anti-Republican wave is building and it’s going to hit against a very stable political structure. And what is unknown is which will be more important in November — the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.’Salon‘s Walter Shapiro offers up another Election 2006 preview, with a brief breakdown of the electoral math for the Dems and a focus on the quandary of moderate New England Republicans such as Lincoln Chafee and Chris Shays.

Karl free to Rove.

Fitzmas is cancelled? Lawyer Robert Luskin announces that special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has told him he “does not anticipate seeking charges” against Karl Rove for his alleged role in Plamegate, partly because Rove apparently told the truth about his involvement to the FBI: “It’s now known that Rove had discussed Plame’s CIA employment with conservative columnist Robert Novak, who exposed her identity less than a week later…Rove’s truth-telling to the FBI saved him from indictment.

For their part, Karl and the GOP are now strutting about in vindication mode and the Dubya White House is breathing a sigh of relief, but Salon‘s Walter Shapiro says don’t fret, Dems: “Rove was not exactly doing hard time on a federal rock pile when Bush’s popularity plunged to around 35 percent. It was Rove’s handiwork to make Social Security privatization the signature issue of Bush’s second term. The disastrous fate of that political gambit, combined with the Iraq war, turned Bush into a lame-duck president before his time. As a political strategist, Rove runs the gamut of issues from A (national security) to B (tax cuts). Six years into his tenure in the White House, Rove may be running on empty, just like the president whom he serves.

The Family Business, II.

“[T]here is a distinction between what is legal and what is right. . . . What was DeLay doing for all that money? Even Ed Buckham was not paying DeLay and his family out of the goodness of his heart.” The Washington Post reports that Boss DeLay and his lobbyist cronies were funneling even more money through his wife Christine, bringing the total the DeLay family received from Buckham to — another — half-million.

Volz comes clean.

“David was kind of the brains of the operation.” In the continuing trial of David Safavian, flipped Casino Jack flunky Neil Volz testifies to explain how the Abramoff operation courted — and was courted by — its “champions.”‘When I was on Capitol Hill, I was given tickets to sporting events, concerts, free food, free meals,’ he testified. ‘In return, I gave preferential treatment to my lobbying buddies.’

Twisted Reed.

In related news, another member of Team Abramoff, former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed, runs into more campaign trouble, this time involving his 1999 attack on proposed federal wage and worker laws in the Marianas Islands. “‘The radical left, the Big Labor Union Bosses, and Bill Clinton want to pass a law preventing Chinese from coming to work on the Marianas Islands,’ the mailer from Reed’s firm said. The Chinese workers, it added, ‘are exposed to the teachings of Jesus Christ’ while on the islands, and many ‘are converted to the Christian faith and return to China with Bibles in hand.’ A year earlier, the Department of the Interior — which oversees federal policy toward the U.S. territory — presented a very different picture of life for Chinese workers on the islands. An Interior report found that Chinese women were subject to forced abortions and that women and children were subject to forced prostitution in the local sex-tourism industry.

The Flowering of Magnolia Conservatism.

“Lyndon Johnson was probably right to fret about the political consequences of civil rights. And even he, who knew more about the intricacies of Southern politics than any 20th-century president, could not have known how complicated the future would be.” By way of Cliopatria, Jefferson Decker, a former managing editor of Boston Review and one of my friends and colleagues here at Columbia, takes a look at two new books on the rise of the Republican Party in the South: Kevin Kruse’s White Flight: Atlanta and the Making of Modern Conservatism and Matthew Lassiter’s The Silent Majority: Suburban Politics in the Sunbelt South.

The Tragical History of Doctor Fristus.

“One Saturday night, Karyn recalled, ‘we were supposed to go to a movie. He walked out in his scrubs.’ Instead of taking Karyn to the theater, Frist brought her to the operating room. ‘To see the human body alive — without a heart in it.'” I’ll admit to getting a ridiculous amount of run out of the Catkiller Frist meme over the past few years., and sometimes I’ve even wondered if it’s a cheap shot. But then my sister Tessa e-mailed me this “heartwarming” puff piece about Senator Frist, and good God, the man is a certifiable freak show. “‘In medical school, Frist cut out a dog’s heart and held it in his palm. It continued to beat for a slippery minute. ‘Watching it beat, the beauty of it,’ Frist recalled. ‘I decided I would spend my life centered around the heart.’” Um….what? This guy is our Senate Majority Leader? “During congressional breaks, Frist, 54, has been known to fly to Africa to operate.” I shudder to think.

Hail Mary for the Chief.

“‘The president’s run into a perfect political storm where the confluence of natural disasters from last fall, gasoline prices, staff changes, the continuing war in Iraq, all are giving conservatives a defensive fatigue,’ said Kenneth Khachigian, a California GOP strategist who served in Ronald Reagan’s White House. ‘And let’s put immigration in there, too…There’s just wave after wave washing over them at this point.’” In another of their semi-weekly reports on Dubya’s lame duck quacking, the WP reports that the administration is looking to the November midterms as their last, best hope for a turnaround. But, unfortunately for them, more and more “safe” GOP districts are now in play as a result of the growing anti-Republican mood across the nation. “‘In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window…Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers.

Hard Time for Tobin.

As a follow-up to a story last month, three GOP political operatives are found guilty of violating communications law for clogging NH phone banks in 2002. (Among them is James Tobin, the guy who called the White House 22 times during the misdeed, and who will now serve 10 months for his role in the scheme.) “[T]he case has drawn complaints even from Republicans. By covering Tobin’s legal fees, ‘the GOP appears to sanction and institutionalize corruption within the party,’ Craig Shirley, of Shirley & Banister Public Affairs, recently wrote in a commentary.”

Why Hath Thou Forsaken Us?

“‘There is a growing feeling among conservatives that the only way to cure the problem is for Republicans to lose the Congressional elections this fall,’ said Richard Viguerie, a conservative direct-mail pioneer.” More trouble for the GOP: The Christian Right looks ready to desert the party in 2006 unless “Congress does more to oppose same-sex marriage, obscenity and abortion.” “‘I can’t tell you how much anger there is at the Republican leadership,’ Mr. Viguerie said. ‘I have never seen anything like it.’” And November’s perfect storm blows stronger…