Fan-Tastic 2010.

Like last year, I’ve been something of a lousy NBA fan this season, partly because the Knicks stink and partly because I don’t get MSG anymore anyway. (I was going to plunk down for the NBA League Pass last fall, until I found out the games aren’t shown in HD ’round here. Not much point in that.) In any event, tradition is tradition, and since the first game’s already started, I should probably get up this year’s playoff picks…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008|2009]

The East

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Chicago Bulls (8): Even if the Bulls weren’t down 19 in Game 1 at the moment of this writing, I’d have the Cavs mostly sailing through the first round. King James is not only rested right now — He’s hungry after missing the Finals last year. And while Shaq is nowhere near the force he once was, and I don’t think Antawn Jamison is the consistent second scorer Cleveland needs, this is the best squad LeBron’s gone to war with over his young career. (If they had an automatic 3-point shooter to spread the floor and keep the triple-teams off James, oh my.) Meanwhile, this iteration of the Bulls looks worse than the team that threatened Boston in the first round last year, and are really only in the playoffs because Toronto got sloppy down the stretch. Cleveland in 5.

Orlando Magic (2) v. Charlotte Bobcats (7): On paper, this is a better Orlando team than the one that made the Finals last year. But playoff games aren’t played on paper. And in the real world, I would much rather have last year’s Hedo Turkoglu in my corner than any iteration of Vince Carter, who’s more likely to crumple up under the basket like he’s been gut-shot after a touch foul than gut any team to a much-needed playoff victory. All that being said, Michael Jordan and Larry Brown’s Bobcats are a work in progress, and I don’t see Dwight Howard’s team having much trouble with Captain Jack, Theo Ratliff, and the like. Orlando in 5.

Atlanta Hawks (3) v. Milwaukee Bucks (6): This is a wild-card matchup for me — I don’t think I’ve even seen either of these teams play. But word on the street is early rookie of the year contender Brandon Jennings has been slumping something fierce lately, and Atlanta’s Joe Johnson will be wanting to show off the free agency goods to all the many losers of the LeBron-Bosh-Wade sweepstakes. (See also: Knickerbockers). So I’ll go Atlanta in 5.

Boston Celtics (4) v. Miami Heat (5): I’m not a big fan of Wade, whose game depends a lot on the zebras getting him to the line, or of Miami (residual distaste from the Alonzo Mourning/Tim Hardaway wars — It’s a Knicks thing.) But, with Garnett and Rasheed aging in dog years now, this version of the Celts has looked bad for awhile. The Celts are like the team of Old Guys (Garnett, ‘Sheed) and knuckleheads (Rondo, Nate) you don’t want to play in pick-up — calling ticky-tack stuff while shivving you in the paint, etc. etc. And, with that in mind and since the refs love them some D-wade, I’ll go Miami in 7.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Oklahoma City Thunder (8): The Lakers beat the Supersonics? Well, sort of. Although they haven’t deteriorated as badly as Boston, the title-defending Lake Show has a few screws loose right now also, with Andrew Bynum, as always, touch-and-go. I’m really hoping this series is a coming-out party for Kevin Durant, and Phil Jackson’s most recent head games totally backfire. But, much as I loathe Kobe, I gotta go with the champs in the first round. Lakers in 6.

Dallas Mavericks (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (7): After a decade of dominance, Tim Duncan and the Spurs are finally fading. Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks should still have a chip on their shoulder about getting robbed by the refs in the 2006 Finals. While I expect Tony Parker will be pretty much torching Jason Kidd this series, the Mavs have time on their side. And with Caron Butler and Shawn Marion added to Dallas’ arsenal, they can come at the aging Spurs in waves. Dallas in 7.

Phoenix Suns (3) v. Portland Trailblazers (6): Two fun teams to watch here, and this would’ve been a great series, with a slight edge to Phoenix. But if Brandon Roy can’t play on account of the bum knee, that swings things in the Suns’ direction considerably. I don’t think Steve Nash’s team are good enough to contend for the championship, but they’ll probably dispatch a severely weakened Portland squad pretty handily. Phoenix in 6.

Denver Nuggets (4) v. Utah Jazz (5): After giving away Camby for nothing and shutting down the Iverson experiment, the Nuggets are another team that have probably taken a step back personnel-wise in recent years. Still, if his head is in the right place, I wouldn’t bet against Carmelo in a first-round series, even with coach George Karl sidelined for health reasons. Meanwhile, Deron Williams is a legitimately great point guard and Jerry Sloan is a legitimately great coach. But, as usual, the Jazz have already over-performed to get this far. Denver in 6.

The Rest

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Miami Heat (5): It’s the Batman versus Robin series, as 2006 co-champs Shaq and D-Wade square off against each other. But, let’s be honest: This series is about Superman and, with all due respect to Dwight Howard, King James is gonna roll right over the Heat. Cleveland in 4.

Orlando Magic (2) v. Atlanta Hawks (3): Howard’s no slouch either, of course, and while I still think Vince is Orlando’s weak link, I don’t have enough of a sense of the Hawks to pick them here, and everyone wants to see the Cleveland-Orlando Eastern Finals. Orlando in 6.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (4): Kobe returns to the scene of the crime. Part of me kinda wants to knock LA out in the next series, against the Mavs. Denver is a maddening team that never quite plays to their potential, and it’s hard to envision George Karl out-coaching Phil Jackson anytime soon. But, screw it, I’m picking an upset — Don’t let me down, ‘Melo. Denver in 7.

Dallas Mavericks (2) v. Phoenix Suns (3): Used to be my homey, used to be my ace. But there can be only one, and Dirk Nowitzki’s got considerably better back-up than Steve Nash. It should be interesting to see how Shawn Marion plays in this series. Dallas in 5.

EAST FINALS: Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Orlando Magic (2): LeBron versus his 2009 nemeses, except now Shaq’s around, and he should have enough left in his tank (not to mention 12 fouls with Big Z) to keep a body on Dwight Howard in the paint. King James will be looking to exact his revenge, and I suspect he’ll be playing out of his mind. And this is where I highly suspect that Vince Carter will pull his folding chair routine at some disastrous point in the clutch. Cleveland in 6.

WEST FINALS: Denver Nuggets (4) v. Dallas Mavericks (2): If Denver does pull off that upset over LA (you heard it here first), I still see them running into a wall against the Mavs. Dallas is hungry and they’re deep. I would even have them beating LA in this spot, although it might take seven games. As it is, Dallas in 5.

FINALS: Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Dallas Mavericks (2): Last year, I picked Cleveland over LA just because I couldn’t in good conscience pick the Lake Show. But this year, I’m picking Cleveland because they’re the best team. Speaking as a Knicks fan, I’m thinking it’s probably better for me if the Cavs get knocked out at some point, so that LeBron won’t feel the need to stay in Cleveland for a title defense. But, quite frankly, I don’t see that happening. The Mavs came close once again, but in the end, I’m going Cleveland in 6, for LeBron’s first — of many — rings.

And, hey look, they already won Game 1. Now let’s see how wrong I can be…The NBA, it’s faaaan-tastic!

Fan-Tastic 2009.

These are actually a weekend late now, and my knowledge of the league now that I’ve left New York (and thus haven’t been watching Knicks games) is at an all-time ebb. Then again, broadcasting uninformed opinions is pretty what much the Internet was created for, so, without further ado and as per tradition, some quick NBA playoff picks…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008]

The East

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Detroit Pistons (8): As per the last few years, I still don’t think King James’ supporting cast quite matches up to the moment. (I like Mo Williams, but he’s no Scottie Pippen, and “Big Z” — Zyldrunas Ilgauskas — is definitely no Dennis Rodman.) That being said, Lebron is pretty much playing to his amazing potential and then some, and it’s clear that — while he may still be Jordan circa ’89-90 at the moment — his dynasty is right around the corner. Conversely, the Pistons look old, tired, and broken. Particularly without Allan Iverson on hand, they would seem to be in the shoes of the mid-00’s Kings: a former title contender now obviously in eclipse. Cavaliers in Five.

Boston Celtics (2) v. Chicago Bulls (7): The Game 1 upset was a certifiable coming-out party for all-around player and Rookie of the Year PG Derrick Rose. (The facet of his game that most needs work: post-game interviewing.) But, let’s remember: The Bulls won Game 1 because Paul Pierce uncharacteristically missed a clutch free throw. With Kevin Garnett reportedly out for the playoffs, I think Boston is dead in the water this year — it’s just a matter of time (And, to be honest, that’s fine with me. They deserve some horrible mojo after swooping up Stephon Marbury as they did.) But they’re still a better team than Chicago and, remember, they had trouble with Atlanta early on last year too. Boston in Seven.

(By the way, was anyone else annoyed with the dubious and oft-repeated stat that Chicago hadn’t beaten Boston in a playoff game since 1948? Uh, well that may partly be because the Celtics were atrocious from the time Larry Bird’s back gave out until Michael Jordan retired. It’s not like the Bulls are the Bobcats, Wizards, or some other legitimately underdog franchise.)

Orlando Magic (3) v. Philadelphia 76ers (6): I’m fond of Superman (Dwight Howard), but, for all the hype surrounding Orlando mid-season, blowing an 18-point lead at home against the lowly Sixers is not something a real title contender would do. And, in the one (nationally-televised) Knicks game I have caught recently, the Magic looked terrible. But I’m not a particularly big fan of this Sixers crew either, so I’ll give ’em the benefit of the doubt and say Orlando in Seven.

Atlanta Hawks (4) v. Miami Heat (5): To be honest, I don’t know the first thing about this iteration of the Hawks: I hadn’t seen ’em play until yesterday, and the last news I heard about their franchise was when Josh Childress went to Europe. But they looked pretty dominant yesterday, and they’ve got a proven clutch performer, Mike Bibby, running the point. So, even though the refs love them some D-Wade, I’ll go with Atlanta in Six.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Utah Jazz (8): Always a tough call, for, as longtime readers well know, neither Kobe Bryant nor the Mormon church tend to be in my Fave 5. (And Carlos Boozer is his own case of bad mojo.) Still, the Lakers are deep, Kobe is an undeniable talent, and he’s got arguably the most underappreciated No. 2 in the league right now in Pau Gasol. I think, barring injury, this could very well be the Lakers’ year. In any case — sorry, Jerry Sloan — Deron Williams, Andre Kirilenko, & co. won’t stop ’em. Los Angeles in Four.

Denver Nuggets (2) v. New Orleans Hornets (7): This is one of those series where all my old intel isn’t of much use. Chris Paul and the Hornets looked deadly last post-season — exactly the type of team you didn’t want to run into early on. But I haven’t seen them play this year and don’t know if they’ve lost a step or if they’ve found a way to score when Chris Paul gets triple-teamed. Meanwhile, on paper Chauncey Billups running the Nuggets seems like a huge boon for them — he’s had experience managing hotheads (Kenyon Martin, meet Rasheed Wallace) and can successfully distribute shots among a bunch of players who all need the ball. But is he really enough to stop a George Karl team from choking early on? Given that they’re already one up, I’ll say Denver in Six.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Dallas Mavericks (6): With Ginobli out, the aging, injured Spurs got a spot of luck when they matched up against another fading West Coast giant, the Mavericks. I doubt the Spurs are good and/or healthy enough to get to the Conference Finals this year, but I don’t have much confidence in Dallas either. San Antonio in Seven.

Portland Trailblazers (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): I’ve gotten the impression from various sources that Portland is a much better team than they displayed in Game 1. And they’ve certainly got an impressive core of young talent in Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc. (I kinda wish Channing Frye had continued to develop, but oh well.) Still, just by the law of averages, I think Yao et al are due to break out of the first round. (And there’s a certain irony that they’d finally get to do it after perennial loser T-Mac sorta checked out on them.) Houston in Seven.

[Hmm. With one exception, I picked the top seed every time again. Way to go out on a limb.]

The Rest

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Atlanta Hawks (4): LeBron and the Cavs have pretty much been playing a higher-level of basketball than the rest of the East this year, particularly at home. And I think King James is too focused this year to screw things up in the second round. Cleveland in Five.

Boston Celtics (2) v. Orlando Magic (3): Like the Spurs-Mavs, I don’t have a lot of faith in either of these teams at the moment. But, while I had Boston winning this at first, I think I’m going to switch to the Magic. Perhaps the first round will work out the hiccups for Stan Van Gundy’s team, and — without Garnett on Boston — I’ll go with youth and energy over age and guile. Orlando in Seven.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Houston Rockets (5): I’m going to be rooting quite hard for Yao Ming and the Rockets here. But, as with the Cavs in the East, the Lakers are just operating at a different level right now. Los Angeles in Six.

Denver Nuggets (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): Unless they psychologically implode, and there’s always a chance of it with this combustible squad, I have to think Denver has enough weapons to take care of injury-ridden San Antonio. Denver in Five.

EAST FINALS: Cleveland Cavaliers (1) v. Orlando Magic (3): Third verse, same as the second and first. The Cavs are playing better ball that most everyone in the East at the moment, and James will not be denied. Cleveland in Five.

WEST FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (2): With Phoenix, Dallas, and San Antonio on the way down, Denver now looks to be one of the premier contenders in the West. But, unless Carmelo has the type of break-out, monster playoff performance that many think he’s capable of but that we’ve yet to see, I don’t see this being all that close. Los Angeles in Five.

FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (1): If you read what’s come before, you may have noticed that I deemed this the Lakers year a few paragraphs ago. And that’s probably true — they’re hungry, they’re experienced, and I don’t see how Cleveland’s going to manage once Phil Jackson uncorks his own version of the Jordan rules on LeBron. But, I’ve gotten pretty far in life rooting against the Lake Show…so, no reason to stop now. Cleveland in Seven.

So, there you have it — Cleveland rocks. And, if they’re this good now, just wait until James get some legitimate help…I just hope it all happens on the Knickerbockers’ watch.

The Tuesday Night Recap.

Well, I’m sure you watched it too. But, anyway, to recap: In tonight’s big contest, the two race horses started out neck-and-neck, and it looked in the early going that an upset might be in order. But, slowly but surely, the plodding, methodical contender pulled away for a small but convincing victory, and that’s all she wrote. I’m referring, of course, to Game 2 of the Suns-Spurs series. Why, was there something else going on?

(By the way, in case you didn’t know, I’m not sure of the Obama analogue yet, but the San Antonio Spurs are definitely the Clintons of the NBA. Tim Duncan’s the Bill of the bunch, the natural talent (with past championships to his name) who whines and works the refs constantly. Bruce Bowen is Hillary, a less-talented workhorse whom people in the media describe with euphemisms like “tenacious”, when he’s clearly and obviously just a dirty player. And, like the rest of the Clinton campaign, Parker and Ginobli are basically slashers…but let’s not belabor it too much.)

At any rate, so, yes, in a huge shocker Senator Clinton won Pennsylvania by ten this evening, 55%-45%. [Update: Since it seems to have confused some Clinton-leaning folk on other blogs, I meant “huge shocker” ironically. See below.] We’ll know the delegate spread tomorrow, but, however it turns out and like Ohio six weeks ago, tonight is just another case of Clinton winning the battle and losing the war: There’s no way at all she gets enough delegates to become viable again. Simply put, Sen. Obama’s previously insurmountable delegate lead is now, to coin a phrase, even insurmountabler. Do I need to link the same post again?

Nevertheless, if you’re looking for someone to blame for Obama’s loss tonight, look no further than Philadelphia. The City of Brotherly Love broke from the rest of the state and went 2-1 for Obama. And, as every sports fan knows, Philly always loses despite themselves. You can’t fight the curse.

In any case, I’d been girding myself for a 15-point margin for Sen. Clinton of late, so, in the grand scheme of things, 55-45 was fine with me (particularly given that the contest seems to have cost Clinton what was left of her bankroll.) So, now, on to Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, where hopefully this primary — finally — comes to an end. Eat, drink, and be merry, Clinton folk, for tomorrow, your candidacy of choice dies.

Update: They’re still tallying the delegates, but it’s looking like Clinton will remain behind by around 150 pledged delegates overall. In the meantime, Al Giordano crunches the exit poll numbers: “Senator Clinton lost ground in every one of those key foundations of her former base vote…Whether or not the commercial media spins it that way – in her campaign’s lexicon – ‘doesn’t matter.’ And ye shall know the dumbest and slowest – and intentionally dishonest – political reporters, pundits, bloggers (and former presidential candidates and spouses) by those that argue otherwise.“

Update 2: It ain’t over yet. This (pre-PA) Youtube suggests a potential path to victory for Clinton. (Here’s a hint: The Hartford Convention.)

Fan-Tastic 2008.

Yep, it’s playoff time again. As a lowly Knicks fan, I’m not sure I’m qualified to write up my picks this year. The only games I saw this season involved New York, and thus I haven’t watched any of these squads play against a real defense. And I haven’t seen the Chris Paul Hornets or the Pau Gasol Lakers play at all this season, among other teams. Still, tradition is tradition, so…

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007]

The East

Boston Celtics (1) v. Atlanta Hawks (8): I can’t say I’m all that pro-Celtics — In fact, I generally find Boston homers, with a few exceptions, to be some of the more aggravating fans around. Still, I’ve always had soft spots for KG, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell. (I could take or leave Paul Pierce: I find him way too passive, tending to disappear in big games for quarters at a time.) And these Celtics are (sorry, Spree) not only the best team Garnett’s ever played on, but the best team the East has seen in awhile. They’re going to be tested at some point before the Finals, but it won’t be lowly Atlanta that push them. KG’s usual intensity alone will ensure no early slip-up, and Boston should scatter Bibby and the Hawks fairly readily. Boston in four.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Philadelphia 76ers (7): A wily and versatile squad stocked with savvy veterans and playoff experience, Detroit is easily the scariest team standing between Boston and the Finals. But, they do have a tendency to coast…one hopes they’ve learned something from their playoff flameout against LeBron last year. Either way, I don’t see Andre Iguodala and the Sixers mounting much of a threat to Motown. Detroit in Five.

Orlando Magic (3) v. Toronto Raptors (6): I haven’t looked at the schedule yet, but I get the sense this and the Utah series are going to be the ones relegated to Wednesday nights on NBA TV. Regardless, Dwight Howard v. Chris Bosh should be fun to watch…and I feel pretty confident Howard has the edge. Orlando in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): These two teams seem to meet every year in the playoffs of late. Unlike 2007, however, the Wizards are healthy, with both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler ready to play. That being said, and while the Cavs are still basically a bunch of journeyman scrubs, Cleveland has King James, who singlehandedly powered a similarly lousy Cavs squad to the Finals last year. This’ll be a hard-fought contest, but my money’s on LeBron (particularly given that Cleveland has beaten DC twice in a row — he’s in their heads.) Cleveland in Seven.

The West

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Denver Nuggets (8): As an inveterate and well-established Kobe hater of long standing, I’m still irritated with Memphis bailing out LA with that grotesquely lopsided Gasol trade. So, I’d like nothing more to see AI and ‘Melo rise to the occasion and knock the Lakers out early. But, against a team as good as Los Angeles and a player with as much killer instinct as Kobe, I can’t in good conscience back a George Karl-coached team. Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Dallas Mavericks (7): As I said above, I have yet to see the Hornets in action, and there’s not a lot of playoff experience on this team. And, now that Dallas has Jason Kidd, it’s hard to see the Mavs folding as badly as they did last season against Golden State. But I still don’t have a lot of confidence in Dallas, and Coach Avery Johnson seems like he’s a net negative when the pressure’s on — at key moments, he just seems to wind up guys like Nowitzki further, instead of calming them down and getting them to play better. And, if Paul is as good and quick as everyone says he is, I’m not sure how Kidd is going to guard him. So, New Orleans in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Phoenix Suns (6): This should be fun. One would think I would know not to bet against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. Still, every dynasty ends at some time or another, and, particularly given their record over the back half of the season, I just have a feeling the Spurs have entered into that long twilight. (Plus, Big Shot Rob ain’t getting any younger, and after last year’s incident, the Suns have karma on their side.) Players like Barbosa will have to step up, and Shaq will have to find some of that playoff juvenation to help keep Duncan locked down and allow Stoudamire to thrive. But, I’m thinking Nash & co. weather a few big games from Ginobli/Parker and knock out the reigning champs in the first round. Phoenix in Seven.

Utah Jazz (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): I know Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are apparently the real deal, but I still don’t have much faith in this incarnation of the Jazz. That being said, despite their 21-game winning streak without Yao, T-Mac has had, uh, some trouble winning a playoff series. Until he finally breaks that curse, I guess I have to go with those Salt Lake City bluesmen. Utah in Six.

The Rest

Boston Celtics (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): King James is amazing, but his retinue (Ben Wallace, Wally World) is still pretty pedestrian. And I just don’t see the Celts getting caught as flat-footed by a monster LeBron game as Detroit did last year. Plus, Boston has too many options, even if they don’t always know which one to go to in the fourth. But don’t fret, LeBron, you’ll be a Knickerbocker soon enough. Boston in Five.

Detroit Pistons (2) v. Orlando Magic (3): Unless Detroit has another one of their “senior moments,” they should dispatch Orlando rather quickly. And they’ll need to, in order to be at all competitive in the Eastern Conference Finals. Detroit in Five.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Utah Jazz (4): Having to choose between Kobe and the Jazz is like choosing between the flu and measles. But I’ll go with LA, partly due to home court, partly due to Kobe no doubt getting a Jordan-like shield from the refs (who, I’m sure, have been apprised of the value of a Lakers-Celtics throwback final to the NBA.) Los Angeles in Six.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v. Phoenix Suns (6): Again, N’Orleans is an X-factor to me. But, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the more prior experience helps. (As does D, of course, but it’s not like the Suns are a defensive powerhouse.) So I’ll go with Nash, Shaq et al. Phoenix in Five.

EAST FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Detroit Pistons (2): Now, this’ll be a great series. We have yet to see how Boston would handle having their backs to the wall, and given that [a] KG can sometimes get ratcheted up too tight and [b] Coach Doc Rivers is more than a little suspect in the strategy department, an early Detroit win could really scramble this one. But, even if he’s older than the hills, Sam Cassell is a legitimate fourth-quarter assassin, and I’m betting he (like Robert Horry and Derek Fisher in years before him) puts Boston over the top in a key game here. Boston in Six.

WEST FINALS: Los Angeles Lakers (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): At long last, the main event: Shaq vs. Kobe for a post-Laker ring. Shaq’s only a (very big) cog in the Suns engine now, of course, but I’m sure he’ll find it sweet to have Phoenix knock off LA regardless. Phoenix in Seven.

FINALS: Boston Celtics (1) v. Phoenix Suns (6): It won’t be the Celtics-Lakers series Commissioner Stern spends his nights praying for, but this should be a solid Finals regardless. The main difference between these two exciting squads is that Boston can totally lock teams down on defense. Defense wins championships, and it will here as well. So, congrats, Celts fans — And don’t forget to thank Kevin McHale for letting Minnesota take a gimongous dive! 2007-08 has been a banner year for Boston…well, except for that whole matter of 18-1…

The Duncan Dynasty.

So, the San Antonio Spurs swept the Cleveland Cavaliers last night 83-82 to take their fourth NBA title since 1999 (and their third in five years.) Ho-hum. Not to take anything away from the Spurs: San Antonio was clearly the better team in this series and Cleveland, even with LeBron starting to coming into his own, was hopelessly outmatched. But, while I’m loath to agree with ESPN’s Sportsguy too often, he’s right this time — these Finals were a total dud. Bring on next season already.

Fan-Tastic 2007.

Our world has revolved around the sun once more, and just like that, it’s time for the NBA playoffs again. As befitting tradition, here’s the pretty much always patently useless GitM breakdown:

[2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006]

The East

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Orlando Magic (8): I had Detroit winning it all last year, and I still think when they firing on all cylinders the Pistons are far and away the best team in the East, particularly now with CWebb joining Antonio McDyess as another quality back-up in the paint. They may not have stars along the lines of Shaq and D-Wade (which, sadly, means less love at the free-throw line), but they’ve got post-up people, they’ve got outside range, they’ve got tenacious defenders and they’ve got savvy veterans. Orlando, meanwhile, has Dwight Howard (young and untested), Grant Hill (aka, sadly, Mr. Glass), and Darko Milicic (who couldn’t even break into the Piston’s rotation back in the day.) Not much of a match-up here. Detroit has had a tendency to coast until fourth quarters this year, so I’ll give Orlando a game. But that’s it. Pistons in Five.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v. Washington Wizards (7): Alas, the Wizards — a fun team to watch with a talented and likable superstar in Gilbert Arenas — are Dead Men Walking. With both Arenas and Caron Butler injured at the moment, Washington just doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Court of King James. As such, this series, which might’ve been a good test to see if LeBron can shake off his regular-season doldrums, will instead be a walk. If the Cavs are too, um, cavalier, DC might take a game. But I seriously doubt it. Cleveland in Four.

Toronto Raptors (3) v. New Jersey Nets (6): Now, this one’s a little tougher. My gut tells me that New Jersey has the veteran experience to win this round against the young, up-and-down, better-ranked Raptors. But, however much I like Jason Kidd, I just can’t bring myself to pick Vince “I phone it in” Carter over Toronto, the team he screwed over back in the day. So here’s hoping Chris Bosh throws a coming-out party. Toronto in Seven

Miami Heat (4) v. Chicago Bulls (5): Until last night, I might’ve picked the Bulls to take this, just because Scott Skiles is a take-no-prisoners-coach and the returning champions have looked suspect this entire season, particularly now that Dwyane Wade has a busted shoulder. If former Piston Ben Wallace could keep an aging Shaq even slightly in check, one would think the young, hungry Bulls — Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich — might light up this series. But then I saw a flat Chicago team lose the second seed in a must-win game last night against New Jersey, and my opinion changed. In short, the Bulls are basically just a jump-shooting team with no real inside game to speak of. Jump-shooting teams can get hot and win a game or two, but they don’t win championships, or even first rounds. (Funny enough, the Bulls could really use Eddy Curry these days, whom they gave to the Knicks for, in essence, several quality draft picks — But Chicago might still get the last laugh if they pick up Greg Oden or Kevin Durant this summer with our pick. Stay tuned.) Miami in Six.

The West

Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Golden State Warriors (8): With all due respect to Sam Cassell, who’s a seriously clutch guy I’ve always rooted for (well, except in the Knicks-Rockets series back in ’94), I’m glad Golden State ended up taking the eight-seed last night over the LA Clippers. With a big, talented backcourt in Baron Davis and Jason Richardson, and with former Mav coach Don Nelson manning the sidelines, the Warriors have a slight chance to make the first round in the West really interesting. Emphasis on slight. From Avery Johnson to Jerry Stackhouse, Dallas is one of my least favorite teams in the league (although, as a digression, I do kinda like Mark Cuban — he’s a good blogger, he’s smart and passionate about the game, and, notwithstanding throwing money into the political process and behind social causes, which I’d like to think I’d do more of, he’s doing what I’d be doing if I were uber-mega-rich.) That being said, Dallas has too many guns, and is too peeved from last year’s loss in the Finals. Dallas in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7): A rematch of last year’s 7-game series (where, it should be recalled, Kobe stopped taking shots in the second half of Game 7 as some strange form of protest.) That is, except this year Phoenix, with Amare Stoudamire and former Knick Kurt Thomas back at full health, is better, and Los Angeles, with Lamar Odom ailing, is worse. My inordinate dislike of Kobe is a matter of record around these parts, so I’ll waste no more time presuming to be impartial here. Suffice to say, Phoenix in Five.

San Antonio Spurs (3) v. Denver Nuggets (6): What with the ignominious circumstances surrounding his trade to Denver Allan Iverson has had a rotten year. And, I’d like nothing more than to see he, Melo, Nene, Marcus Camby, and K-Mart take the boring San Antonio Spurs to school this year. (Although, give ’em credit, it was interesting to see Tim Duncan’s inveterate whining finally send Joey Crawford over the border to Crazytown — What, you mean NBA refs carry grudges against certain players? Who knew?) But, it’s not going to happen, particularly with coach George Karl — playoff choker par excellence — still at the helm of the Nugs. I’ll be rooting for Denver, but San Antonio in Five

Utah Jazz (4) v. Houston Rockets (5): Riding Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and a recently flailing Andrei Kirilenko, the Utah Jazz have overperformed all year. Struggling with injuries at various times to both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, the Rockets have underperformed. In this series, I expect Houston to even the score. Van Gundy’s a great coach, T-Mac is hungry, Yao is due, Houston in Six.

The Rest

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Miami Heat (4): With Wade hurt and Shaq still dominant but aging in dog years (as all centers ultimately do), I’d be surprised if Miami has the wherewithal to beat the Pistons two years in a row. One hates to bet against the returning champions, but they’ve been too erratic all year, I think, to get past Detroit, who should be looking to rectify for last season. And, without Riley on the bench, Detroit in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v. Toronto Raptors (3): Ideally, Chris Bosh would give LeBron James a run for his money here in the second round, and solidify his burgeoning superstar status for the 2007-08 season. But, even with a slightly suspect supporting cast (Eric Snow?), I expect LeBron will begin to taste the NBA Finals right around now, and show us an upside that’s been AWOL for months. Cleveland in Five.

Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Houston Rockets (5): Dallas has been the best team in the league all year, and Nowitzki is a player who not only can get red-hot, but knows how to get his calls when he doesn’t. I’d love to see Houston take this series, but I gotta say Dallas in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. San Antonio Spurs (3): This will be the first really marquee match-up of the playoffs, and I’d argue the Suns are still rising. Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker will no doubt make it interesting, but Phoenix ultimately puts too many points on the board. Phoenix in Seven.

EAST FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (2): It makes historic sense — LeBron has to get past the Bad Boys of Detroit, just as Jordan did back in 1991, to get to the NBA Finals. It won’t happen this year, though:The Pistons are too deep and too experienced. Detroit in Six.

WEST FINALS: Dallas Mavericks (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): The two teams that gave us arguably the best game of the season will also end up choosing between themselves the 2007 champion. Dallas is probably a safer pick, since they’ve got a better half-court game than the run-and-gun Suns. But, I’m going Phoenix…I like ’em more as a team, and when they’re in the groove they can’t be stopped.

FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): Detroit is a better defensive team, and defense wins championships. But, with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, and Shawn Marion, I’d guess Phoenix has more game-breaking X-factors than do Detroit, and, as noted before, the Pistons have looked sluggish to me this year. So, here’s guessing Nash gets a ring to help quell the naysayers about his two-time MVP status. Phoenix in Seven.

Looks good on paper, but that’s why the play the games. Let’s play ball.

Fan-tastic 2006.

If it’s late April, it must be time for the NBA playoffs. And, while the Knicks’ sheer terribleness made it especially hard for me to evaluate the rest of the league this year (since all the halfway-decent teams generally just ran right over ’em), a tradition is a tradition. [2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005] So, without further ado:

The East

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Milwaukee Bucks (8): Ok, they didn’t crack 70 wins — Still, with four All-Stars on hand (Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince), championship experience, the best team mentality in pro basketball right now, and an unsatisfied hunger after the Game 7 Finals loss last year, this Pistons squad has the look of a Team of Destiny. I actually watched Milwaukee completely dismantle the Knickerbockers from near-courtside at the Garden last Friday (Thanks, Gill and Ethan), and they definitely have some weapons — Michael Redd from behind the arc, TJ Ford in the open floor. Still, they’re overmatched against Detroit. Pistons in 4.

Miami Heat (2) v. Chicago Bulls (7): Scott Skiles seems to be a great coach, and Chicago is an exciting young team. Plus, they’re bound to get even better next year, since (grumble, grumble) they’re getting a Top-5 pick from the Knicks. But the Heat is home to two superheroes in Superman and Flash (who get along better these days than do Supes and Batman [via DYFL]), and Alonzo Mourning (albeit hurt) is no slouch either. Provided the Glove doesn’t revert to his terrible-LA days, and ‘Toine or White Chocolate don’t shoot ’em out of it, the Heat should get through the first round with little trouble. Heat in Five.

New Jersey Nets (3) v. Indiana Pacers (6): I still haven’t forgiven Vince Carter for his folding on Toronto a few years back — Still with he and Richard Jefferson on the wings and the inimitable Jason Kidd manning the point, New Jersey look to be a frightening playoff team, and I doubt they’ll have much trouble moving past Indiana, a squad who, post-Reggie and post-Artest, seems as if their time has passed. (That being said, I haven’t seen all that much of the Peja Pacers.) Nets in Six.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. Washington Wizards (5): Will the District’s ballers manage to topple King James,or will LeBron make the Wiz look like the Washington Generals? Gilbert Arenas‘ big-game tendencies notwithstanding, I tend to favor the Cavs here. LeBron has already shown he can pretty much do it all, at least during the regular season. And while he alone probably isn’t enough (yet) to get this somewhat second-rate squad past the second round, I expect he should be able to carry Cleveland past the lowly Wiz. Cavs in 7.

The West

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Sacramento Kings (8): Like Indiana, their partner in the Peja-Artest trade, the Kings feel like a team whose time has come and gone. Sure, Mike Bibby is a playoff performer, but the Kings just don’t have enough weapons to get past the returning champions, even with Duncan and Ginobli slightly gimpy these days. Spurs in Five.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7): The fast-break-happy Phoenix Suns are easily the most watchable team in the NBA, but let’s face it — I’m really just looking forward to rooting against Kobe. Is there a pro athlete less likable this side of Barry Bonds? Particularly given that Phoenix tends not to play D (and are missing their strongest defender with Kurt Thomas out), Kobe will undoubtedly find a way –remorseless gunning, perhaps? — to score his points. Still, I expect even the Amare-less Suns can carry the day against this iteration of the Lake Show. (Yes, LA beat Phoenix by 20 last week, but Steve Nash sat out that game.) Suns in Six.

Denver Nuggets (3) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Here’s where the West gets screwy. Not only are the Clippers — the Clips! — actually in the NBA playoffs, but they also have home court over the higher-seeded Denver Nuggets. This one’s really a toss-up. On one hand, Denver has proven playoff performers in K-Mart and Marcus Camby and the NBA’s best clutch shooter in Carmelo Anthony. On the other, the Clippers have Sam Cassell at the point, who — like Robert Horry and Nick Van Exel — is one of those take-no-prisoners fourth-quarter guys who can pretty much singlehandedly will a team to victory. And all that being said, it may ultimately come down to who’s a bigger playoff choke artist — Nuggets coach George Karl or the entire Clipper franchise. My money’s on Karl. Clippers in Seven.

Dallas Mavericks (4) v. Memphis Grizzlies (5): The other strange seeding in the West — by records alone Dallas should be the #2 seed — the Mavs probably won’t be challenged very much by Memphis, although Nowitzki versus Gasol should be a fun matchup. Dallas still doesn’t buckle down on D, but they should have enough O to tame the Grizzlies. San Antonio, however, is another story… Dallas in Five.

The Rest

Detroit Pistons (1) v. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): The bottom five teams in the Eastern bracket can’t really hold a candle to New Jersey, Miami, and especially Detroit, and it’ll show in this series. I expect a variation on Detroit’s old Jordan Rules will more than suffice in keeping Lebron in check. Pistons in Four.

Miami Heat (2) v. New Jersey Nets (3): This should be a fascinating series. Still, if Shaq is close to playoff form, I think Miami should pull through…While Flash should be able to run with Jefferson and Carter, the Nets don’t really have anyone who can match up with the big fella in the paint. Heat in Seven.

San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Dallas Mavericks (2): The Western Finals may seem like they’re coming early this year…still, we’ve been here before. If it’s San Antonio’s defense versus the Mav’s offense, advantage San Antonio. Spurs in Six.

Phoenix Suns (2) v. Los Angeles Clippers (6): Sorry, Clips fans. You got to the second round for the first time since 1976. But, even with Sam Cassell, that’s all you get. Suns in Six.

EAST FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. Miami Heat (2): As with the second round, if Shaq’s feeling it and the Heat start clicking, Detroit could be in serious trouble. But all-in-all, I’d say the Pistons are too deep, too experienced, and too hungry. Pistons in Seven.

WEST FINALS: San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Phoenix Suns (2): If Amare and Kurt were healthy, this could be a contentious series…but I just can’t really see Phoenix knocking off San Antonio without better interior defense. Spurs in Six.

FINALS: Detroit Pistons (1) v. San Antonio Spurs (1): Wow, two #1 seeds — looks like I’m going out on a limb again. At any rate, this match-up has been in the cards ever since last season’s seven-game Finals, in which the home team won every game. And given that this year Detroit has home-court advantage and Duncan’s playing through serious pain…well, you do the math. Detroit in Six.

I Love this Game.

Twenty minutes until my favorite sporting event of the year kicks off, so I had best hurry up and get my NBA playoff picks in order. Even the dismal news about McDyess’s third knee surgery can’t ruin this day’s excitement. (On a side note, did anyone else find it fitting that our final image of Michael Jordan was at the free throw line? Back in his heyday, he basically lived there, with the refs sending him to the line every time another player dared to breathe wrong on His Airness.) At any rate, here goes:

The (L)East – First Round: In previous seasons, I’ve gotten annoyed by people hating on the caliber of the East. But this year I have to admit, all the real action is in the West. That being said…

Detroit Pistons v. Orlando Magic: Despite their stellar D anchored by Big Ben Wallace, I really don’t think the Pistons have the offense to go all the way to the Finals. That being said, I’m pretty sure they’ll get past the Magic, despite what is sure to be crazy numbers by Tracy McGrady, the scoring leader this year. With a little luck, T-Mac could’ve carried Orlando through in a five-game series. But now that the league has gone back to seven games in the first round, there’s less room for upsets. Pistons in five.

New Jersey Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Probably the most exciting matchup in the East. Two up-tempo, no-D-playing squads led by the two best point guards in the league, Gary Payton and Jason Kidd. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll give it to New Jersey – the Bucks just haven’t been playing that well since acquiring the Glove, and in any type of playoff situation, the safe bet is always against George Karl. Nets in six.

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics: Ho-hum. With the loss of Rodney Rogers and Kenny A and the pickup of Vin Baker (a trade that was Knicks-like in its wrongheadedness), this Celtic unit is worse than the 2002 version. But the young Pacers make a lot of bad decisions, and I haven’t seen them play to their potential in months. I have a feeling this’ll be an ugly series (turnover, ‘Toine jacks a 3, turnover, Pierce jacks a 3, etc.), but Indiana’s inside game trumps Boston’s threeball assault. Pacers in six.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New Orleans Hornets: I’ve become an Allan Iverson believer ever since catching the Kings-Sixers game earlier this month – in a game filled with talent (at least on the Kings side), AI was the speediest, most dominant player on the floor. With the occasional exception of Keith Van Horn, the rest of the 76’ers are scrubs, but I think AI will get his team through the first round, particularly as Jamal Mashburn has a history of fading in the clutch. Sixers in five.

The West – First Round: Now here’s where the real excitement is, with the top 5-6 teams in the league all vying for the same spot in the Finals…

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns: Even though the Suns won the season series, I just don’t see Phoenix having much of a chance if Tim Duncan is on the floor for the Spurs. And, while he’s definitely better than Tony Parker, I’m still not sold on Stephon Marbury being much of a floor leader. It’ll be fun to see rookie Amare Stoudamire do his thing in the playoffs, but, frankly, experience wins championships. Spurs in five.

Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz: Stockton-to-Malone might’ve worked against the Timberwolves, but even then I doubt it. While the Lakers have the dynasty mojo working for them, the Kings are the most unselfish, talented, and exciting team in the league, and I for one think they’re going all the way this year. While Stockton and Malone’s durability is undeniably impressive, I have a feeling they’re going to look their age this series. Kings in four.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trailblazers: As I said before, the seven-game first round is going to cut down greatly on the freak upsets. That being said, I think this one is a tossup. Whatever their record, Dallas has proven time and time again that, despite their enormous reservoir of talent, they’re a choke-artist team. Only Nick Van Exel can be said to be truly clutch, and only he, Eduardo Najera, and Michael Finley have the ability to shut down their man. And given the media circus surrounding the “Jailblazers,” I think Portland’s going to come out with something to prove, particularly as they’ve finally drawn somebody else other than the Lakers in the first round. (LA has owned them ever since that Game 7 fourth quarter meltdown in 2000…the one where Shaq brutalized Steve Smith in the lane while the refs sucked on their whistles, but I digress.) Portland in seven.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers. It’s the Minnesota Bowl as the Lake Show returns to their former home. Everyone thinks the T-Wolves are already dead in the water against the three-time champions, but I think they’ll hang tougher than anyone suspects. Sure, Shaq and Kobe present match-up problems, but so does KG, who deserves MVP for the way he’s put this team on his back this year. In fact, I’d almost like to pick Minnesota to get past the Lakers, but Shaq is still the most unstoppable player in the league, and – much to everyone else’s dismay – he gets better every year. (As for Kobe, I think the only difference between Kobe and a player like Ray Allen is that Kobe plays on Shaq’s team. I’d make a lot of shots too if I had that kind of force in the paint erasing my mistakes. But I know most people disagree with me on this front.) At any rate, the world is waiting for the Sacramento-LA rematch. LA in seven.

The Rest of the Story:

Detroit vs. Philadelphia: This is where Detroit’s suspect offense starts getting them in trouble. Sure, Ben Wallace is a force in the paint, but the Answer is quick and wily enough to cause him trouble. Philly in six.

New Jersey vs. Indiana: As I said before, the Pacers are talented enough, but they’re also young and uneven. Reggie will come up big in at least one game, as is his wont, but in the end Captain Kidd will lead his team safely through the straits of peril. New Jersey in seven.

San Antonio vs. Los Angeles: I for one think the Spurs are a boring team to watch, and they’ve been folding against the Lakers ever since they swept them in their 1999 title run (against the, sigh, Knicks). So, having dodged the Minnesota bullet, I say the Lakers get past San Antonio relatively easily. Besides, the league wants Sacramento-LA, and will be calling the games accordingly. Lakers in six.

Sacramento vs. Portland: It’ll be an exciting series, but Portland has already overachieved and shut up the naysayers. As I noted earlier, Portland has their own LA demons to exorcise, but the Kings not only are a better team, they want it more. Sacramento in five.

***

East Finals: Philly vs. New Jersey. AI will battle mightily, but the rest of his team are going to drag him down. New Jersey in six.

West Finals: Sacramento vs. Los Angeles. It’s the main event. The Kings have been building to this point for awhile, and they already went to a Game 7 OT against the Lakers last year. (In fact, take away either Horry’s miracle shot in Game 4 or the suspect officiating in Game 6 and the Kings already have a ring.) The Lakers won’t give up the title easily, but it’s the Kings’ hour. Sacramento in seven.

Finals: Sacramento vs. New Jersey. As usual, the NBA finals will be an anticlimax. And, now that the Kings have gone through rather the Lakers, the Mutombo trade will have proven to be an absolute bust for New Jersey. The Kings took the Nets apart during the regular season, and the same thing will happen here. Unlike last year, the Nets will win a game…but that’s about it. Kings in five.

To sum up, Sacramento wins it all. So there you have it. Let’s see how wrong I can be. Right now, the Nets are up 21 on the Bucks. (54-33) Good to see George Karl living down to expectations.