11/7/00 -

DUBYA....OR IS IT?

Florida - or, more to the point, its overseas residents - looks to keep the campaign interesting through the rest of the week.

Nevertheless, it seems like I'll be out of a job sooner rather than later. I had best be updating the resume.

5:19pm EST - Hillary's now up 10 in NY over Lazio. I think it's probably safe to put that one in the fridge.

4:25pm EST - Drudge's sources now have Gore up 6 in Florida and Bush up 2 in Pennsylvania. Looks like Penn, not Fla, may end up being the true battleground.

4:16pm EST - DNC figures apparently have Gore up big in Cali, as well as Michigan (+3), Washington (+1), Florida (+3), and Pennsylvania (+1). According to these figures, Bush leads in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin (+2), New Mexico (+3), and West Virginia. Although he's doing well in the PN-FL-MI trifecta, Gore pretty much has to win either Minnesota or Wisconsin to stay in it.

3:17pm EST - More early exit polls here.

2:45pm EST - Early exit polls (obtained by Drudge) say Bush is up slightly in Missouri, Ohio, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Gore is up 3 in Michigan. Florida and Pennsylvania are tied. Meanwhile, Clinton is up 8 on Lazio. Be advised the late-afternoon exit polls had Bradley winning New Hampshire primary (he didn't.)

Resistance is futile, Falwell. You will be assimilated (Via Pith and Vinegar.)

Laugh about it, shout about it, when you have to choose...anyway you look at it, you lose. - Happy Election Day 2000. At least I can be content in knowing that Nader garnered at least .000000005% of the vote (that is, assuming somebody from George Allen's team didn't "inadvertently" misplace the ballots from the People's Republic of Alexandria.)

My voting place was an elementary school gymnasium, which brought back a rush of memories in and of itself. There I was, charged with the task of choosing the next Leader of the Free World, and all I wanted to do was play some dodgeball. Sigh.

Al Gore managed to pull ahead in the final Zogby...interesting. I wonder if this is a statistical blip, DUI-related, or just the undecideds finally picking insufferable over incurious. We'll know soon enough, I guess.

No, no, no. If Gore loses tonight, please let him fade into obscurity. Harvard doesn't have any reason to bolster its rep for sanctimony or condescension.

Raimi regular J.K. Simmons purportedly signs on to play J. Jonah Jameson, editor of the Daily Bugle and Peter Parker's boss.

Phew.

Space Station Alpha...I like the sound of that.

Fifty-four days before the year 2001, the Times checks in with Anne Foerst, artificial intelligence researcher at M.I.T.

Scientists discover what we all expected: insecure men use cellphones as plumage to attract mates. I apologize on behalf of my gender.

11/6/00 - I'm a loser, baby...No matter what happens tomorrow, somebody's gonna end up cryin'.

The venerable Dr. Thompson launches his new ESPN column with a modest proposal on baseball.

Lucasfilm lets a number of Episode II pics out of the bag, and judging from the two pictured here (Servalan and Commander Travis?), I think somebody's been watching some old Blake's 7 reruns...

Other interesting just-released pics include this great one of Obi-Wan breaking it down to Anakin and this most intriguing Select pic, which could be [SPOILER] young Boba Fett looking out the cockpit of Slave 1 at a Jango v. Obi-Wan melee.

Did mega-stinkers Battlefield: Earth and Mission to Mars instigate a Sci-Fi defection? John Malkovich says no to Spiderman, Linda Hamilton nixes Terminator 3, and Matt Damon shrugs off Minority Report.

The cost of Election 2000: Three billion dollars. Unbelievable.

Don't be a Nader-hatuh: If Gore does lose, don't blame Nader. It'll be his own damn fault.

David Broder rates the campaigns, giving the nod to Nader.

The Death of Outrage? Ethel the Blog and Now This poke gaping holes in the recent conservative defense of Dubya's DWI coverup.

One day to go. And I think I speak for the a sizable segment of the American populace when I say it's about freakin' time.

In terms of my enthusiasm, this election ended back on March 7, when both the Bradley and McCain campaigns crashed upon the rocks of the two flush, feeble fortunate sons. But there's still Nader's 5% and a Democratic Congress to think about, although those two goals also look increasingly in peril. At any rate, I should probably go on record with my 2000 Election Predictions before all is said and done, so here goes:

The Presidency: I find it ironic that, in a race where both candidates have shamelessly groveled before the elderly population - the richest (and highest-voting) segment of our society - with their prescription drug benefits and Social Security promises, that the 2000 Presidential race looks to be in the hands of Florida, the land of retirees. If Dubya wins the state, the veep will be in serious trouble and Jeb Bush's own Presidential prospects will be kept alive. If the GOP do take Florida, Gore can still win a small toss-up elsewhere (Maine or New Mexico, for example) and force a tie. Then, it'll really gets interesting...

If, on the other hand, Gore takes Florida, he'll have killed two Bushes with one sunshine stone. Gore has been up in the state until yesterday, and Nader is something of a non-factor there, so it'll all come down to turnout.

That being said, my guess is Gore adds Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Tennessee and the Nader Northwest (Washington-Oregon) to his California-New York-Illinois-New England cache. Bush gets Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Delaware, Ohio, Maine, New Hampshire, and West Virginia to add to his considerable Texas-heartland electoral stash. Bush wins the popular vote 49%-47%, but Gore takes the Electoral College 273-265. And any challenge by the Bush team to challenge the Electoral system will - with the aid of conservatives like George Will and William Safire - be systematically picked apart in very short order. Gore wins.

As for Nader, much as I'd like to see him do it, my guess is he tops out at 4% nationwide. That giant sucking sound you hear will be Nader voters in swing states wrestling with their demons and then deciding to hold their nose and pull for Gore. I hope this isn't the case, and I think I can safely say I'd vote for Nader no matter where I lived. But I sense that guilty liberal consciences will help the Vice-President out in the end, however undeserving he may be. Nevertheless, I vote Nader.

The Senate - Dems have seen their hopes rise, fall, and rise again in taking back the Senate. Much as I'd like to see it happen, I don't think it will come to pass. I believe the Dems will pick up Senate seats in Florida (Connie Mack's old seat), Missouri (the ghost of Carnahan will not be denied), Minnesota (Nader turnout helps), and Michigan (ditto), and that Corzine and Hillary will successfully hold the NJ and NY seats in the Dem ledger. This would mean a 50-50 Congress, but...I also think George Allen will oust Charles Robb in VA, Roth will hold Delaware, and Lieberman's ridiculous vanity run will cost the Dems the Connecticut seat, so...Dems pick up 2 seats. As conservative George Will noted on Sunday, though, both Strom Thurmond (R-SC) and Jesse Helms (R-NC) are in ailing health, so "God might soon succeed where the ballot box fails."

As for the Virginia Senate race, I do think Allen will pull it out in the end. That being said, I'm voting against him. I'm not a huge fan of Chuck Robb, but he is left of Allen, and there's absolutely no way I'm voting for a guy who keeps the Confederate flag in his home and a noose (Allen says it's "cowboy memorabilia") in his law office. I vote Robb.

I should note, however, that while this majority will mean Dems take the leadership positions and Gephardt becomes Speaker, it will otherwise be meaningless. The House will be the most evenly split in a generation, and there will be a sizable wing of "Blue-dog Democrats" who will more often than not break with the GOP.

I vote for Jim Moran (D-VA). From all the press I've read, not to mention this lobbyist loan business, I get the sense he's not the most up-and-up guy you'll ever meet. But, in this case I'm voting more for Democratic control of the House than for the individual candidate. Not for nothing have such Republican luminaries as Dick Armey, Henry Hyde, and Tom DeLay been put in an iron-clad lockbox through the election season.

Final Word: Whichever fortunate son wins the 2000 election - Gore or Bush - my guess is that they'll be a one-term placeholder for whomever comes next, much as Bush Sr. was a bridge between the Reagan and Clinton eras. I still believe it might be better for the Progressive cause for Gore to lose this one, so the Dems can shore up their congressional majorities in 2002 and put up a compelling Progressive candidate for the Presidency in 2004. But it seems that the liberal wing of the party has forsaken that line of thinking for a short-term gain, even if it means further Democratic deterioration in 2002 and 2004.

If Gore wins, I can think of two people who - other than the veep's immediate family and campaign staff - will wake up Wednesday morning (or Friday morning, or however long it takes) with huge, cheese-eating grins: 1) Bill Clinton, who will have received the electoral ratification for his legacy that he so desires (and deserves), and 2) John McCain, who by virtue of Gore's sheer schleppiness and a GOP defeated thrice and looking for new blood, must be considered the prime contender for the office in 2004.

If Gore wins, look for McCain, John Kasich, Fred Thompson, and possibly Tom Ridge to start angling for the post. If Bush is the victor, the Dems'll start looking at Bob Kerrey, Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, John Edwards, and maybe, hopefully, Bill Bradley.

So there you have it. Let's see how wrong I can be.

11/3/00 - On the road today...updates may be infrequent.

NOVEMBER SURPRISE! Big-time. Man, if I was a Republican, I'd be so pissed right now. (On Hardball last night, "friendly media guy" Republican Rep. Joe Scarborough (R-FL) was apoplectic, telling Sheila Jackson Lee and Paul Begala over and over again to "Shut up!" - it was undignified to say the least.) To find out five days before the election that your horse has failed to disclose this type of impropriety at a more politically appropriate time...it verges on Clintonesque.

Drudge is reporting that Dick Cheney has two DUI's of his own from the '60s. At least they're consistent.

Haven't quite figured how this one'll play out, but I gotta think it's going to hurt Dubya. Sure, there might be a sympathy rally, but I think it's more likely that a hidden DUI would depress turnout and turn off soccer moms at the very minimum. Plus you've exposed yourself to, "If he can't drive a car safely, why should we let him drive the country." and "Forget Nader: Dubya is unsafe at any speed." and the like. If you were still "undecided," I'd think this might push you over to Gore.

11/2/00 - Ethan Stiefel, my sister's boyfriend, is profiled in last Sunday's Times.

Endgame: After fifteen years at the top (give or take a Deep Blue), Kasparov falls. After two losses (one by a relatively simple mistake) and thirteen draws, he is eliminated from the World Chess Championship by his former protege, 25-year old Vladimir Kramnik.

"But I'm just trying to solve the unsolvable..." - Minesweeper may harbor mathematical secrets. I've undergone a full recovery since 1997, but, during my brief stint as a equity research temp in NYC, my Minesweeper addiction was all-consuming...and my skillz were formidable.

Yes, Dubya is dumber than bricks. But, the Observer notes, let's not forget that Al Gore is also a moron. (And this is written by one of his supporters.)

Which brings to mind this Post piece on Gorethink (birddogged by Kausfiles): "He has trouble trusting someone who by the very fact that Al Gore is in the room is by definition not the smartest person in the room," said one veteran of Gore's White House team." I think I've told this story before, but during the Democratic primary one of Gore's staffers told me, "Al Gore is the most dangerous thing in the world...a guy who thinks he knows more than he actually does." Is it any wonder that the Dems aren't excited this year?

Daniel Ellsberg, the RAND contractor who leaked the famous Pentagon Papers, rails against the proposed anti-leak law.

Having run various scenarios on MSNBC's Electoral Chess Board (based on poll data from MSNBC and TNR), the chances of neither candidate garnering 270 electoral votes looks more feasible than I once imagined. If Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida swing Gore's way, as the polls seem to indicate at the moment, and Dubya wins the Nader Northwest (Oregon-Washington) and all other swing states, it looks like it might just be up to the House. Verrrry interesting.

My little sis gets her props from the Times: On Sunday the "Black Swan Pas de Deux" included a stunning debut from Gillian Murphy...Ms. Murphy could have triumphed through technique alone, so perfect were her double turns in attitude position and triple pirouettes and fouettés. Where others falter, she is flawless...Ms. Murphy's golden- girl performance was a model of coherence." You go, girl.

What goes around comes around: Bill Clinton plays Grover Cleveland redux in the 20th Century's Pre-NeoProgessive era. Our own era bears some arresting resemblances to Grover Cleveland's late 19th century. As then, we live in a time of precarious political balance between the two parties (divided government, it's sometimes called), of checkmate and stasis in the political system, swelling energy in the private economic sphere, and an inchoate but building sense that the capacity of our formal political institutions is growing dangerously incommensurate with the scale and power of the forces at work in the economy at large. A similar sense a hundred years ago gave birth to the progressive movement, a broad- based effort at reform whose principal historical project was to devise the theory and the institutions of activist government.

Historical examples abound today. Arguing for a similar progressive resurgence with a different example, John Judis sees the Spirit of '76 in 2000's fortunate-son-faceoff. And the Post thinks Dubya may be headed for a Grover Cleveland-esque defeat himself.

Ralph Nader, Love God. Hey, the bachelor President thing worked for Michael Douglas.

George Will goes to bat for the electoral system.